By SPM Scott
For fans of college basketball, nothing is better than what is in store for us over the next two months. And for the short term, over the next two weeks teams will be jockeying for NCAA Tournament seedings, trying to move off the bubble and into the big dance or making one last desperate run toward what they hope will be a miracle conference-tournament title and an NCAA Tournament bid.
For some teams, the pressure mounts daily. They monitor what the various bracketologists have to say about their postseason chances and attempt to earn that one Quad 1 win that will put them over the top while avoiding a bad loss that can destroy their hopes and basically end their seasons.
Other teams realize that their seasons likely will be over in a few short weeks and adopt a YOLO mentality that allows them to play free and easy without stress. Suddenly the turnovers, missed free throws and bad shooting that haunted them throughout the year disappear as their cleared minds allow them to play at a level that they knew was possible but had eluded them.
This dichotomy leads to surprising upsets and crazy games with fantastic finishes that are much closer than Vegas oddsmakers anticipated. It also produces some hard-fought, emotionally charged games that take a physical and mental toll on teams. A big upset or hard-fought win against a strong team may inflate the perception of a physically tired and burnt out team the next time it plays.
Then there are the teams that have thrown in the towel.
Perhaps team chemistry was bad to begin with and has gotten worse throughout the season. Maybe the players can't stand the coach and are tuning him out. It's possible that injuries have left the team depleted and at a physical disadvantage that the players feel can't be overcome. Or maybe the length of the season, along with the mental and physical toll it takes, has worked in concert with subpar results to leave the players ready for spring break. Winning a few more games simply means more stress, more work and a possible lost vacation and partying opportunity.
Remember, these are still college kids with a lot going on off the court along with what amounts to a full-time job being Division I basketball players. Life can get in the way of hoops, and getting pulled in 1,000 different directions sometimes can cause their focus to be directed somewhere other than the basketball court.
In short, for bettors and college basketball fans alike, this is the most anticipated, exhilarating, confusing and frustrating time of year. You only need to look as far as the abundant recent major upsets, miracle covers and classic game endings for evidence.
These next few weeks can be especially tumultuous as bettors often search for teams that "have something to play for" to bet on. In college hoops betting that way often is a losing formula, however. Look at what happened to bubble-team New Mexico, a home loser as an 18.5-point favorite against Air Force last weekend.
The Lobos suffered an improbable and potentially devastating loss to the Falcons, who then hosted another team needing late-season wins to secure an NCAA bid Tuesday night. The service academy teams always will give everything they have and fight until the bitter end, but after such an emotionally charged and draining win against New Mexico, the Falcons simply ran out of gas Monday after trailing by two against Boise State at the half.
Boise, a 9.5-point favorite who was one of our top plays of the day, outscored Air Force, 51-22, in the final 20 minutes to win by 31 points.
Some bettors prefer to wager solely based on statistics and numbers, other like to bet based on situations and still others would rather look at individual player and coach matchups when laying their cash. We always prefer an approach that incorporates all three - as well as the good-old eye test - especially when it comes to college basketball this time of year.
We have learned the importance of this approach the hard way in recent years. The NCAA tournament has been our most successful betting endeavor the past two years. We have really cleaned up during March Madness, but have struggled late in the season and in conference tournaments with more of a "bet on the teams that have something to play for" approach.
The season is a grind, and there are way more factors that need to be considered than just having something at stake. And as we mentioned, that can make it even more difficult for the teams feeling the pressure to perform well. This time of year we often see inflated lines after important, emotional wins and in early round conference-tournament matchups between teams with very different records playing in cavernous, mostly empty arenas at unusual start times.
Coaching, as well as a team and coaching staff's attention to detail and preparation, always are important when it comes to handicapping games, but this becomes even more important this time of year. Teams that are overwhelmingly better on paper than their opponents or who may have beaten their opponents easily during the season may focus more on their potential later-round opponents and look past the next team up on the docket.
The dreaded "lookahead spot" tends to be more prevalent this time of year than during any other part of the season with so many games crammed into such a short period of time. Then, when a team comes out flat and falls behind early, there is very little atmosphere or energy in the building for them to feed off of and get themselves going. The pressure mounts with each missed shot, and suddenly the overwhelming favorite is in a desperate situation against a team playing stress-free with soaring confidence.
There's a reason why conference tournaments are so exciting and there are so many stunning upsets during "Championship Week" and in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Poor preparation, overconfidence and a lack of attention to detail also are big reasons why certain coaches have earned reputations as March failures while others seem to exceed expectations and take their teams deep into postseason tournaments. If you're betting on Rick Barnes or Matt Painter against Tom Izzo this time of year, you simply haven't been paying attention. Numbers don't always tell the full story.
There's an early game Tuesday in the Patriot League that may help prove our point about the importance of taking many factors into consideration.
American University travels to West Point as a four-point favorite to take on an underwhelming Army team. Some books have made American as much as a 4-point favorite. The Eagles have not been playing well of late, but are coming off a major upset win as a double-digit underdog against perennial league-champion Colgate.
The 4-point line probably should be more like 2 or 2.5. It likely is inflated as a result of recency bias linked to American's last result, and pretty much all of the bets and money were coming in on the Eagles at -3.5. Today's game is at 4 p.m., an odd weekday start time, and likely will be played in front of the entire West Point brigade.
It should be a raucous environment that favors and inspires the hosts, something that most of these visiting smaller-conference teams are not used to. We feel strongly that Army will cover the four points and wouldn't be against throwing a small bet on the Cadets to win outright.
Some other lines that may be off for one reason or another and are worth looking into today include:
Northwestern +5.5 at Maryland
Auburn +6.5 at Tennessee
Green Bay +7.5 at Cleveland State
Northern Florida -3.5 vs. Florida Gulf Coast
South Alabama -3.5 vs. Southern Mississippi
Temple +5.5 at Rice
Oklahoma +9.5 at Iowa State
Oklahoma State -2.5 vs. Central Florida
Butler -1.5 vs. St. John's
South Carolina +5.5 at Texas A&M
Minnesota +11.5 at Illinois
Creighton -8.5 vs. Seton Hall