By SPM Scott
Our Week 1 National Football League DFS strategy doesn't veer far from our full-season strategy.
In full-season we told you to keep it simple, play your studs, go with known quantities and don't take chances. The goal is to maximize your chances of getting the most possible points using the players you used your top draft picks on and those who have a guaranteed role and a sample size large enough to feel comfortable that they have at least an acceptable floor.
In DFS, that normally is a great strategy for cash games in which you are looking to finish in the top half of the weekly standings or are playing in a format that pays a higher percentage of players than a huge-money GPP format.
In the million-dollar-style GPP contests, however, usually we are looking differentiate ourselves from the crowd and take more risks. Scared money doesn't win money, as they say. Certainly you want to have a core group of players with both high ceilings and high floors, but because of the salary cap and how the most consistent performers are priced, only a few of those true Tier 1 guys can fit on one roster. Beyond that core group it becomes key to find lower-priced, lower-end players with high ceilings but who also might give you a goose egg.
Everyone loves the rookies in Week 1. We are dying to snag the young players we saw dominate in college who we've read all the glowing training-camp reports about (have you ever read a bad training-camp report?) and who the head coaches gush about in interviews. These guys have been standouts in non-contact practices and in preseason games playing against other teams' twos and threes.
That ain't the NFL folks.
But let us use Jahmyr Gibbs as Exhibit A as for why these players are a bad Week 1 strategy. Lions coach Dan Campbell has praised Gibbs since the moment he stepped foot in Michigan and talked about what a game-changer he was and how he would be used in all sorts of situations, including some that would surprise everyone.
Now head over to the platform formerly called Twitter and do a search for Jahmyr Gibbs. Read a few posts. Get it now? Gibbs's line Thursday night:
7 carries. 42 yards rushing. 2 receptions. 18 yards receiving.
This type of showing is more common than not early in the season for even the highest-rated NFL rookies. No one knows
The name you're going to hear a lot today is Bijan Robinson. We love Bijan. Incredible skill set. Great speed. Tremendous lateral quickness. Bell-cow-back power. Superstar vision.
But he hasn't played a real NFL game played with regular-season intensity against a defense designed to specifically shut him down. Even when the starter play in exhibition games, they are looking to get in shape and not get hurt. The speed and intensity simply aren't there.
For any NFL rookie there is going to be an adjustment to the speed of the game. Rookies are all playing in systems that are new to them, so it may take them just a split second longer for them to read and react than normal. In the NFL, a split second is an eternity and holes literally shut down in the blink of an eye.
So for any rookie the leash is short. There always is a proven veteran in the background that a coach knows he can trust and who knows the system, and coaches never want to destroy a young player's confidence in a few short games.
Don't forget that the Falcons have a proven 1,000-yard runner sitting just below Robinson on the depth chart, too, in Tyler Allgeier - another player who experienced the early season struggles most rookies deal with early last year before figuring it out. He's a great back, and different from Allgeier, so to think he's not going to be part of the game plan for Week 1 of his second season is simply ridiculous.
That's not to say we will ignore Bijan completely. In fact, of the players we think are potential "stud" running backs this week he ranks among the top four. Based on his ceiling he also is a good value compared to some prices at $7,800 on FanDuel. But, because of the rookie uncertainty and the high-quality player looking over his shoulder, he can't be one of our core players.
For our core guys, we need to know that even on a bad day we are going to get at least an acceptable level of production. That's why we look to veteran players who have a large sample size and are guaranteed to get a high number of touches or targets.
Later in the season we will rely more on current analytical data, past performance, matchups and other factors in determining our lineups. Today it's all about track record.
Volume + Value = Victory
With that in mind, here are our Week 1 DFS recommendations, ranked in order:
Stud Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert - Chargers $8,100
Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars $8,000
Herbert has great weapons and a new OC who is going to want to show off his new toys and have him chuck the ball all over the field. He also is playing in a game that will be up-tempo and that Vegas has given the highest probable points total of the week. It's a great combination, and all of his guys are healthy. Is there a better group of weapons than Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler?
Lawrence has a tremendous mathcup vs. the Colts and a new weapon in Calvin Ridley to go along with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Travis Etienne.
If you wan to make one of these to your QB in every game today we wouldn't think less of you.
Stud Quarterbacks We Don't Love
Lamar Jackson -Ravens $8,900
Jalen Hurts - Eagles $9,000
We expect some rust given Jackson's inactivity late last season and lack of playing time in the preseason, but even if he's terrible in the passing game he will get points using his legs. From 30,000 feet his matchup looks good against a young, unproven Texans defense, but it also screams a heavy dose of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Also, Jackson's favorite target, Mark Andrews, likely is out with a quad injury. We won't argue if you put him in your lineup here or there, but at $8,900 if he's not the No. 1 QB in the league today it's a miss. Hurts is simply facing a defensive genius who has spent the entire summer figuring out ways to shut him down after struggling against running QBs last year. He's great and will do fine, but will he put up $9,000 numbers as a player, like Jackson, who will be highly owned?
Value Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins - Vikings $7,500
David Carr - Saints $7,000
Russell Wilson - Broncos $7,100
Sam Howell - Commanders $7,100
If you get 20 points from Jackson or Hurts you are ready to jump off the nearest bridge. If you get that from either of these dudes you may be on the way to easy street. And imagine if you get 25.
Super-Value Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield - Bucs $6,300
Anthony Richardson - Colts $6,700
Baker is Baker. Ultra-competitive. The game script indicates that he likely will be playing from behind, which means a lot of throws, and he still has the weapons on the outside that Tom Brady had in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (also value plays this week). He won't quit and is likely to pick up points in garbage time (and facilitate a back-door cover for those who partake). Richardson may not complete many passes, but if he runs for 70 yards and a TD he doesn't need to throw the ball well to be a very good value at his price.
Stud Running Backs
Nick Chubb - Browns $8,600
Derrick Henry - Titans $8,500
These are your guaranteed volume guys, but we think you can get more bang for your buck with the top guys in the next tier down. At these prices you need to get a lot out of them, but if you have room under the cap and you want to plug them in to your lineups, they may not be highly owned at those prices.
Tier 1 Value Running Backs
Aaron Jones - Packers $7,200
Bijan Robinson - $7,800
Travis Etienne - Jaguars
We don't consider these core players because Jones always has A.J. Dillon looking over his shoulder and Robinson's rookie status, but they are worth playing in lineups in conjunction with the other core players.
Core Value Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins - Ravens $6,500
Raheem Mostert - Dolphins $6,000
Brian Robinson - Commanders $6,400
Joe Mixon - Bengals $7,500
Javonte Williams - Broncos - $6,500
Rachaad White - Bucs $6,400
Cam Akers - Rams $6,600
Dobbins is set up for a huge day, but will he be on a snap count? Mostert is the healthiest RB in Miami and Robinson is the No. 1 guy in DC and has an amazing matchup. Mixon is healthy for a change and will play in all situations. White should get a ton of volume vs. the Vikings as should Akers vs. Seattle.
Super-Value Running Backs
Deon Jackson - Colts $5,600
Zach Charbonnet - $4,800
Jackson is the starter for the Colts, so is worth a shot at that price. Chabonnet is an all-purpose back who should see enough volume to be a bargain with Kenneth Walker coming off an injury. Want to stack your lineup with studs? Consider using these guys to free up space.
Stud Core Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill - Dolphins $8,800
Ja'Marr Chase - Bengals $8,500
Nothing against Justin Jefferson at all, but these guys are likely to get the same volume and put up similar numbers for $700 to $1,000 less. Get one of them in all your lineups. We prefer Hill.
Tier 1 Core Wide Receivers
Chris Olave - Saints $7,300
Chris Godwin - Bucs $6,800
Get one of these guys in all lineups. Olave will see volume and has a new QB who loves his style of reciever. He also matches up against a secondary that was absolutely terrible last year. Godwin is healthy (more rare footage) and should be Mayfield's go-to guy. He is extremely undervalued as long as he's healthy. We would add Mike Evans to this group, but he's been nursing an injury and hurt feelings. Not sure what we get with him, but it is possible that his super-motivated to earn his last big contract and goes off. Huge ceiling there.
Tier 1 Value Receivers
D.K. Metcalf - Seahawks $7,200
Deebo Samuel - $7,000
Mike Evans - Bucs $7,500
Jaylen Waddle - Dolphins $7,900
Calvin Ridley - Jaguars $7,000
Tyler Lockett - Seahawks $6,800
Terry McLaurin - Commanders $6,900
Christian Kirk - Jaguars $6,900
Amari Cooper - Browns - $6,700
If you don't get Tyreek, grab Waddle. No Godwin? Take Evans. Need to save money, take Lockett over DK. McLaurin and Waddle only lower because of injury concerns.
Value Wide Receivers
Drake London - Falcons $6,200
Jahan Dotson - Commanders $6,100
Courtland Sutton - Broncos $5,900
Michael Thomas - Saings $6,000
Place these guys around your stud and core players.
Super-Value Wide Receivers
Marvin Mims - Broncos $4,700
Jordan Addison - Vikings $5,500
Jonathan Mingo - Panthers $4,500
K.J. Osborn - Vikings $5,100
Van Jefferson - Rams $5,500
Mims is a great play if Jeudy is out. Addison is the No. 2 now in a prolific offence. The Panthers have to throw it to someone if Thielen and Chark are out, so Mingo is the next man up. Osborn may be good today since Cousins is more familiar with him and he's more familiar with the offense. As far as Jefferson is concerned, see Mingo. Rams got no one else.
Stud Tight End
T. J. Hockenson - Vikings $7,200
Dallas Goedert - Eagles $6,400
Hockenson is the No. 2 option in Minnesota. Use him in a lineup if you want, but we think there is better value below. Goedert is just a solid football player, but you can get that for cheaper today.
Core Tight End
Tyler Higbee - Rams $5300
Higbee will be in almost all of our lineups. Will run tons of routes and should get tons of targers in what should be a ball-control, quick-passing and run-heavy offense vs. Seattle.
Value Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz - Texans $5,200
Juwan Johnson - Saints $5,100
Gerald Everett - Chargers - $5,200
All solid options, but probably won't see the targets that Higbee gets.
Super-Value Tight Ends
Logan Thomas - Commanders $4,900
Isaiah Likely - Ravens $4,700
Cade Otton - Bucs $4,900
Hayden Hurst - Panthers $5,000
Week 1 Recap
Four of our five lineups finished in the money this week. As the season goes on we will play in higher stakes games, but early on you want to test and tweak your process. So, maybe we could have won more, but it's a good start.
