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By SPM Scott
For Week 2 of the 2023 National Football league season, the strategy and concerns for DFS players are similar to those we wrote about for full-season waivers. Don't overpay for potential one-hit wonders and don't be afraid to buy low on proven, battle-tested commodities.
And as always, dig a little deeper for the hidden gems.
The biggest shock of Week 1 in general had to be the performance of the Los Angeles Rams, not only for their relatively easy victory over a Seattle team that was expected to make the playoff but also for the DFS performances of Kyren Williams, Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua.
Trust me when I write that we've spent many a week during the Sean McVay era rotating average Rams running backs, trying to figure out what was going through the brain of the boy genius and which RB would get the bulk of the work - and actually be effective - in a given week. Many pundits were very high on Cam Akers entering the season, but Williams shocked the fantasy world by getting a lot more touches than expected and rushing for more than 50 yards and a couple TDs.
Meanwhile, Akers averaged 1.3 yards per carry. But he did get the ball more than 20 times, and after a big win and playing against a really good defense today, it's doubtful that McVay is going to make huge changes to his offensive philosophy.
The truth is that if Williams doesn't fall into the end zone twice we aren't even talking about him, and the Rams have such a tough defensive matchup this week that playing their backs doesn't really make sense.
Williams is priced at $5,900 on FanDuel. So is Akers.
Frankly, that's too high for both of them, but what does that tell us? It tells us that no one knows exactly how that rotation is going to go. Given what we know about volume, though, and all the data we had on Akers coming into the season, even if this was a favorable matchup for the team would it be smart to pay the same for Williams, who always been a hit-or-miss, volatile performer? Probably not. That's the danger of Week 2 DFS.
Moving on to the Rams' receivers, Nacua seemingly came out of nowhere to get Cooper Kupp volume and scored just under 17 points. Diminutive and similarly unknown teammate Tutu Atwell added 15 points of his own. Nacua is priced at $5,800 and Atwell is at $5,500. Those prices are not unreasonable, but there may be a better deal.
Van Jefferson is $5,400. But he only had 4.4 points, so why would we consider him? Well, last week's game is on tape, those two guys are not unknown anymore and Jefferson ran pass routes on 93% of the team's offensive plays last week.
The bottom line is that none of those players is a slam dunk, but Nacua and Atwell still are unproven and are not likely to put up those types of numbers again, especially against the 49ers D after they had big games a week ago. So, if we were going to choose one of them, the guy who is a little cheaper and is going to be running routes on almost every play makes sense.
That's Jefferson. It seems likely that the Niners will focus a little more attention on the guys who put up the big numbers last week, which may provide an opportunity for Jefferson to excel.
Because of the matchup, it's not likely that any of these playes would make it into our lineups, we are just using that example to explain the dangers of Week 2 when it comes to DFS.
Another reason to consider a player like Jefferson over the other two is because in larger DFS tournament-style or GPP contests, it makes a sense to veer away from the players the public is likely to take. If you're reading this article, it's because you do your homework and put in the time to be better and because you want to win.
Most people are going to scan the player pool, look at each player's points and compare that performance to their price. Our goal is to find the players who aren't the likely public favorites and who can help us finish in the money.
Here are a couple of other players that looked great last week, but who now might be priced too high until we have a larger sample size:
Calvin Ridely - $8,300
Zay Jones - $6,300
That said, their teammate Christian Kirk was Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence's favorite target last season. He had 1.39 fantasy points in Week 1 and might be a steal at $6,000 this week against a Chiefs defense known for giving up some yards through the air. Ridley and Jones will be on KC's radar for sure, and Kirk will be an afterthought among many DFS players.
Here are some other potential buy-low wide receivers:
D.J. Moore - $6,100
Michael Gallup - $5,700
Josh Reynolds - $5,900
Kadarius Toney - $5,300
Odell Beckham Jr. - $5,300
Tyler Boyd - $5,300
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $5,200
Hunter Renfrow - $5,100
Buyer beware of these running backs:
Travis Etienne - $8,200
Bijan Robinson - $8,100
Tony Pollard - $8,000
Those three are great backs, but if they are priced at more than $8,000, there are many higher-value backs who are guaranteed to see a lot of touches and simply need a touchdown to help you land in the money. Maybe they didn't have a great Week 1 or just had a tough matchup in their season opener, but whatever the reason, they are good options based on value alone:
Dameon Pierce - $6,000
David Montgomery - $6,300
James Cook - $6,600
James Conner - $6,400
Rachaad White - $6,200
A.J. Dillon - $7,000
Kenneth Walker - $6,600
Josh Jacobs - $7,500
At tight end, we are simply not spending anywhere near $6,600 for the most over-hyped tight end of the last two seasons, Darren Waller, until he actually puts up some numbers on a consistent basis. Kyle Pitts at $5,700 also is a no for us. But if you're looking to buy low, check these guys out:
Chig Okonkwo - $4,700
Luke Musgrave - $5,000
Dalton Kincaid - $5,200
Cole Kmet - $5,200
Sam Laporta - $5,100
Logan Thomas - $4,900
Irv Smith - $4,800
Now that we have that out of the way, here are players we are targeting for our core, which means we will play them in multiple and possibly all of our contests, as well as other players we are targeting this week.
Core QB Candidates
Justin Herbert - $8,200
Patrick Mahomes - $9,000
Josh Allen - $9,200
Buy Low Potential Stud QBs
Joe Burrow - $7,400
Lamar Jackson - $7,600
Anthony Richardsson - $7,500
Good Value Solid QBs
Trevor Lawrence - $7,800
Jared Goff - $7,300
Super-Value Qbs
Baker Mayfield - $6,800
Geno Smith - $7,000
CJ Stroud - $6,400 (if he plays)
Core RB Candidates
Derrick Henry - $8,300
Christian McCaffrey - $9,500
Buy Low Potential Stud RBs
Dameon Pierce - $6,000
David Montgomery - $6,300
James Cook - $6,600
James Conner - $6,400
Rachaad White - $6,200
Kenneth Walker - $6,600
Josh Jacobs - $7,500
Good Value Super Sub RB
A.J. Dillon - $7,000
Josh Kelley - $6,300
Zack Moss - $6,100
Gus Edwards - $5,900
Super-Value RBs
Isiah Pacheco - $5,700
Jerick McKinnon - $5,100
Core WR Candidates
Stefon Diggs - $8,000
Ja'Marr Chase - $8,400
AMon-Ra St. Brown - $8,100
Buy Low Potential Stud WR Candidates
Keenan Allen - $7,800
Tee Higgins - $7,000
DK Metcalf - $7,700
Michael Pittman - $7,200
Mike Evans - $7,100
Super-Value Core WR Candidates
Nico Collins - $6,200
Christian Kirk - $6,000
High Value Solid WRs
Chris Godwin - $6,300
Gabe Davis - $6,500
Tyler Lockett - $6,500
Zay Flowers - $6,600
Romeo Doubs - $6,300
DJ Moore - $6,100
Bargain WR to Help You Stack w/Studs
Drake London - $5,800
Treylon Burks - $5,400
Josh Reynolds - $5,900
Van Jefferson - $5,400
Kadarius Toney - $5,300
Michael Gallup - $5,700
Odell Beckham - $5,300
Tyler Boyd - $5,300
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $5,200
Hunter Renfrow - $5,100
Core TE Candidate
Travis Kelce - $8,500
Value Priced TE Target
Evan Engram - $6,000
Super Value TE Targets
Chig Okonkwo - $4,700
Sam LaPorta - $5,100
Dalton Schultz - $4,800
Dalton Kincaid - $5,200