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There already are some lines and games that we like for the upcoming weekend and have bet on:
College Football:
Tulane +6 at Houston - BET CANCELED BECAUSE OF INJURIES
Liberty -1.5 at Old Dominion (-114) - WIN & beat closing line
Liberty opened at -2 and sharp bettors immediately pushed the line to -4. That is a strong indication that there are pros who loved this at -2. Well, it dipped down to pick 'em, but again bounced back to -1.5. It's hard to ignore those moves when it's very apparent that a group of respected bettors has strong feelings against a Liberty team that is 3-1 and lost to nationally ranked Wake Forest by a point. ODU is solid, too, with wins over weaker ACC foes Virginia and Virginia Tech. This was back up to -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. This spread had moved to -3.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
LSU -7.5 at Auburn (-118) - Loss & beat closing line
Auburn looked bad against Penn State a couple weeks back and won a game it had no business winning against Missouri last weekend. LSU should have beaten a pretty good Florida State team opening night and had a 15-point win against Mississippi State as part of its current three-game winning streak. This line opened at -6 and jumped right up to -9.5 thanks to respected money. It dropped back down to -7.5 and then was bought back up to -9.5 again. We would have loved -6, but -7.5 was too good of a number to let it slip away a second time. It was at -8.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina over 60.5 (-110) - WIN & beat closing line
This game opened at around 63 and was immediately bet up by sharps to around 69. Then because of weather reports it dropped to 60.5, which is where we got it. It dipped to 59.5 and is now back to 61.5. Pros pounded the over at 63 so we're very happy with 60.5 weather or now weather. A nine-point dip is huge, and there are a few others that have dropped nearly this much or more. Watch the numbers and watch the weather. We are happy to report this total has climbed to 64.5!
Minnesota -11.5 vs. Purdue (-114) - LOSS & did not beat closing line
While we wish we could have had the opening number of -8, it immediately went to -10.5 thanks to sharp money and continued to climb. We saw it as high as -13 at some books and decided to jump on -11.5 while we could get it. Minnesota continues to be undervalued. This may be a close call if QB Aidan O'Connell plays for Purdue, but we will take our chances given the pro nod to the Gophers and the likelihood that O'Connell won't be 100 percent. Consensus is -12 as of Thursday afternoon.
Added Saturday, Oct. 1:
Michigan State at Maryland over 57.5 (-112) - Loss & beat closing line
Most books had this at 59 as of Saturday morning. It opened at 60 and was immediately bet up by 62.5 by sharks. Came back down because of weather forecast, but occasional rain and a little wind shouldn't make five-plus points difference. We took this at 57.5.
Texas -7.5 vs. West Virginia (-110) - WIN & beat closing line
Jumped on this at a deflated number on FanDuel when Texas QB Quinn Ewers was declared out. Was -9 and -9.5 at most other books. Number opened at 11. West Virginia isn't good enough to take that much advantage against a very solid defense and a QB who has now played three games. And Texas is home. Love this one!
Washington State -3.5 vs. California (-114) - WIN & bet on closing line
Sharps hit this right away when the number was posted at -4, pushing it to -4.5. Now they are hitting it again at -3.5 for some late movement. Several models we trust have Wazzou winning by double digits. This one would have seen fishy with no line movement, but that makes us feel good about it. Take it before it moves if you can, but it's fine at -4 or -4.5 too.
Oklahoma -4.5 at TCU (-110) - LOSS & bet on the closing line
This one hovered at or around -6 to -6.5 all week. We wanted it at -5, but it dropped last minute to -4.5 and we are on the Sooners. This opened at -4 and sharps bet it immediately to -6.5 within minutes. That's good enough for us. If they liked it at -5 and -4.5 we will take it at -4.5.
Week 5 CFB Record: 4-4
Winning Percentage: 50%
Beat Closing Line: 5-1
Profit: -.42 units
CFB Season Record: 21-14-1
Winning Percentage: 60%
Beat Closing Line: 21-5-6
Profit: +5.68 units
NFL Week 4 Early Bets
Vikings -2.5 vs. Saints (-115) - WIN & beat the closing line
The Saints will be without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas in this one, but this game actually opened as a pick and had jumped to -2.5 and then to -3 before any of that became public. It's been bouncing back and forth between -3 and -3.5 the last few days. Respected bettors liked it at -2.5 and -3. Andy Dalton will play in place of Winston, and New Orleans still has a strong defense, but that shouldn't be enough to keep this game within three points against a Minnesota offense that has yet to really hit its stride despite a plethora of talent. We like the over at 41.5 but it's still trending down, so we will wait to see if it dips some more. It opened at 43.5 and sharps bet it up to 44 and then to 45. Will Andy Dalton really hurt what has been a struggling offense that turns the ball over often that much? If they liked the over at 43.5, we love it at 41 or lower. Look for Alexander Mattison to have a big day if Dalvin Cook sits, too. We got this at -2.5.
Bills at Ravens over 50.5 (-110) - LOSS & pushed the closing line
Steelers -2.5 vs. Jets (-130) - LOSS in-game bet
Broncos +9 & Rams +8.5 teaser (-120) - LOSS
49ers money line (-122) - WIN
NFL Week 4 Betting Summary
Week 3 NFL Record: 1-3
Winning Percentage: 25%
Beat Closing Line: 1-0-1
Profit: -2.09 units
NFL Season Record: 9-8-1
Winning Percentage: 53%
Beat Closing Line: 7-1-3
Profit: +0.29 units
Overall Football Record: 30-22-2
Winning Percentage: 57.7%
Profit: 5.97 units
Week 4 NFL Pick 6 Contest Record: 4-2
Week 4 Winning Percentage: 66.7%
Season Pick 6 Record: 19-5
Season Winning Percentage: 79.2%
Fourth Place out of 830 contestants