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By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
It's always beneficial to check the early NCAA and NFL lines to see how they move right out of the gate, because that gives you an idea of what the "sharp" or pro betters are thinking - and it may help you uncover a bad line or two as well. While line movement and sharp money never should be the only criteria used for placing bets, it should be a consideration when handicapping any game.
Most casual betters, aka "the public," aren't checking the initial lines when they are first released. It takes a ton of public money to move lines - usually line movement is reserved by an influx of sharp money - and sports books offer lower limits on bets when lines are first released. So, if a line moves early you can almost be certain it's the pros who are making that happen.
When studying these numbers, sometimes if you act quickly you can get the perceived "bad" number at your local or preferred book before it moves. Checking the numbers out of Vegas at sharper sports books such as Circa or South Point can give you an indication of where lines are heading before your book has time to react. If nothing else, you can look for key numbers such as 3, 6, 7 and 10 and try to get down on some of the games before they move to or beyond those numbers - only if your other numbers or indicators show that the bet is a sound one, of course. Sometimes if you get in early enough it's possible to bet on a game before a big line move, which may allow you to go back and bet the other side in hopes of winning both bets and getting what is called a "middle."
While we've gotten pretty far downstream as far as Week 1 "early" NCAA picks are concerned, you still can use available data to help you make picks ahead of this week's games. And there definitely are some interesting opportunities for Week 1 of the NFL season, which begins a week from Thursday.
Week 1 NCAA Early Picks
Houston - 4.5 at UT San Antonio
Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network
Houston has a chance to be one of those under-the-radar Group of 5 teams that ends up being undefeated and moving into playoff consideration later in the season. It may come down to how the Cougars do in their conference showdown against Cincinnati, but the Bearcats have a tough opener this weekend at Arkansas and may begin the year with a loss. This line actually dropped to -4. Jump on that number if you can get it, but certainly try to bet it before it gets to -5 or higher. The Cougars and Cincinnati are considered to be the favorites in the American Conference, and Houston has 13 starters, including its starting QB, coming back from a team that went 12-2 overall and 8-0 in the conference.
Utah -2.5 at Florida
Saturday 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Utah is a near-consensus pick to win the Pac 12 and earn a playoff bid. Heading across the country into a sweltering Swamp to face an underachieving team from 2021 with a new head coach and an athletic returning QB will be a nice test to start the season. But the Utes showed they can compete against the best on a big stage in last year's Rose Bowl vs. Ohio State, and they are simply the better team this weekend in all areas. The Gators, who have to be better this year, also will face a period of adjustment under first-year coach Billy Napier, who gets thrown into the fire immediately after coming over from Louisiana. Both teams return 13 starters, but we like the coaching stability and Utah's resume from a year ago. This line has moved to -3 at most books, so get it now at 2.5 if you still can. For sure do not let it get to -3.5. We would recommend paying up for an alt spread or taking the money line over -3 or -3.5.
Georgia -16.5 vs. Oregon (in Atlanta)
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
There are some intangibles that come into play with this game such as the head coach Dan Lanning coming over to Oregon after guiding Georgia's all-world defense last season. Certainly he will be very familiar with the Bulldogs' offense and personnel, but we don't see that making a difference in a game against the defending national champs who just happen to be one of the consensus picks to advance to the playoff again this year. Former Auburn QB Bo Nix also is new to the Oregon program, so he will be well-versed in the speed and physicality of games vs. SEC opponents and shouldn't be overwhelmed by the environment - even if Atlanta is considered a "neutral" venue. Let's be real, though. Nix and Auburn were considered underachievers during his tenure there. He has the physical tools to keep his team competitive in this one, however, and Georgia did lose a ton of NFL-caliber talent from last year's team. Still, the Bulldogs return 10 starters, including QB Stetson Bennett, and will plug those holes with a bunch of four- and five-star prospects. While Oregon is likely to be within shouting distance at halftime, Georgia's depth and talent will allow the Bulldogs to pull away and cover the 16.5 points in the second half. This line has moved to -17 at most books. We only recommend it at -16.5 or better.
Florida State +3.5 vs. LSU (in New Orleans)
Sunday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Florida State was much-improved by the end of last season and is looking for some of that momentum to carry over to the 2022 campaign. While on the surface a game in New Orleans, located about 80 miles from LSU's Baton Rouge campus, would appear to be a home game, it's close enough that the rabid Seminole fans who are hungry for a return to national prominence to make the trek to New Orleans (I mean, why wouldn't you?). So, while the crowd certainly will favor the Tigers, it won't be anywhere near like facing the Death Valley fan frenzy in Baton Rouge. New LSU head coach Brian Kelly hopes to make a splash in his first game since coming over from Notre Dame, but he inherited a program in shambles and only has 10 starters to work with and will need time for his team to adjust to a completely new staff. The fun at LSU continued this summer, with one of the team's QB candidates choosing to "retire," and Kelly hasn't announced whether Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels or sophomore Garrett Nussmeier will be the starter Sunday. Mind games can work both ways. Florida State returns 16 starters, including QB Jordan Travis, and should be able to chew up yards and time with a strong running game. That's a nice, simple formula that we like against a program in disarray that is looking to change its culture. That usually takes time. We love the +3.5, which already has moved to +3. Take the +3, too, and consider a little money line wager if you're feeling frisky.
Week 1 NFL Early Picks
Buffalo -2.5 at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, Sept. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
In what could be a Super Bowl Preview to open the 2022 NFL season, the Bills seemed poised to finally make a run to the title game with one of the league's most versatile and productive QBs in Josh Allen to go along with elite offensive and defensive units. They enter the season with a chip on their shoulder and should have learned from past failures. The Rams are the champs until someone knocks them off, but they enter this season with some injury-based question marks and without last year's No. 2 receivers Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. Woods moved on to Tennessee after suffering a season-ending injury last year, which allowed Beckham to provide a boost to the offense down the stretch before he also suffered a knee injury in the Super Bowl that will keep him out of action for most - if not all - of this season. Their top two running backs, Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson, also have been dealing with soft-tissue injuries throughout training camp, with Akers just returning to the field this week. Remember that Akers came back very early from an achilles tear and did not appear to be close to 100 percent during the playoffs. Most doctors will tell you he's still a ways off from playing like his former self. On top of that, QB Matthew Stafford is dealing with elbow soreness and hasn't seen game action during the preseason. McVay usually keeps it vanilla during preseason, and his teams generally take some time to hit their in-season stride offensively, so Buffalo is the play here at -2.5 or on the money line. We bet the money line just in case the line drops and gives us a better number later, but it appears to be heading toward -3. Get it before it gets there or just take the Bills to win outright.
Saints -5.5 at Falcons
Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1 p.m. ET on Fox
The Saints have a strong defense and plenty of weapons on offense with WR Michael Thomas appearing to be ready to return to the lineup full time after battling injuries for two years. Alvin Kamara looks to have dodged a suspension for off-field behavior, at least for the time being, and New Orleans' defense is very good. The Saints are undervalued and playing possibly the worst team in the NFL to open the season. Starting QB Jameis Winston also returns after a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year. This line seems to be heading toward -6, so get it now.
Dolphins -2.5 vs. New England
Sunday, Sept. 11 at 1 p.m. ET on Fox
This line already has moved to -3 and might not stop there. New England's offense appears to be in disarray with no clear-cut, experienced offensive coordinator or play-caller. Mac Jones has proven to be serviceable at QB and should continue to improve this year, but that remains to be seen and might take some time given the OC situation. The Patriots are decent on D, but lacking some of the secondary personnel they've had in the past. New England's running game is solid and deep, but the WRs are not striking fear into opponents. Miami, on the other hand, has hired an offensive whiz as head coach and provided him with a lot of toys to play with. The Dolphins upgraded at RB, adding Chase Edmonds, and brought in the WR who NFL defenses fear most in Tyreek Hill. Second-year WR Jaylen Waddle had a strong rookie season, and Mike Gesicki is a pass-catching TE who is athletic enough to split out wide to create mismatches. Normally we could count on the New England coaching staff making every game winnable, but the offensive play-calling situation has us concerned, and the Pats traditionally don't play well in Florida. If you can get this at -2.5 take it, otherwise go Miami money line.
Vikings +2.5 vs. Packers
Sunday, Sept. 11 at 4:25 p.m. on Fox
The Vikings have underachieved in recent years, mostly because they had a defensive-minded coach who was ultra-conservative and refused to take advantage of having as much skill-position talent as anyone in the NFL to go along with a more-than-serviceable QB. Enter Kevin O'Connell, who comes over from the Super Bowl- champion Rams after working for years with and under Sean McVay and in the Shanahan system. He was with Washington when QB Kirk Cousins had his most productive years and figures to be more creative in taking advantage of the talent at his disposal. The main question mark with Minnesota is RB Dalvin Cook's shoulder, but the Vikings have a proven backup there in Alexander Mattison. Justin Jefferson is poised to be a top-three NFL receiver, and Adam Thielen is a TD machine who makes all the tough catches. Irv Smith should benefit from the new coach as well at TE as long as he can stay healthy. KJ Osborn is a more-than-adequate No. 3 WR. Green Bay, on the other hand, still has MVP Aaron Rodgers and a strong 1-2 punch at RB in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. But security-blanket and red-zone machine Davante Adams is off to Las Vegas, leaving behind an underwhelming WR corps, which is led by Allen Lazard and may be relying quite a bit on younger players. Rodgers will figure it out eventually, and the Packers once again will have a strong defense, but he doesn't take any snaps in preseason games and traditionally shows a little bit of rust early in the season (see last year's embarrassing opening-day loss to the Saints). It should take a few weeks for him to adapt to life without Adams and get on the same page with the other guys. Minnesota appears to be undervalued this year. The line has moved toward the Vikings, so while you may have lost your edge as far as that goes, we are not opposed to taking Minnesota on the money line, too. We got the Vikings at +2.5.