By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
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We’re back!
As the final week of preseason games in the National Football League winds down, with rosters taking shape and injury situations taking on more clarity, it’s time for us to help with your 2022 fantasy football drafts. Although this weekend is considered National Fantasy Draft Weekend by many folks, hopefully most of you have taken our advice and waited until the end or preseason to hold your drafts.
That’s the best way to ensure you have gathered all the information necessary to put your best foot forward and avoid throwing money away when the inevitable season-ending training-camp injuries occur. That doesn’t mean we’ve been sitting back doing nothing, however.
First, back in June, there were mock drafts and since then there have been many small-dollar best-ball drafts in addition to the standard mock drafting. These are tools at our disposal that are necessary for us to take advantage of to test the market value of players, get a sense for how the general public is drafting and start developing our draft strategies for when things get real.
The best-ball drafts in particular – and you still can partake a few more times now that training camp is over to get an even better feel for how your drafts may go – are a great way to draft in a truly competitive environment with at least something at stake. This keeps trolls from ruining the draft by selecting ridiculous players or just disappearing and helps you collect as much valuable data as possible.
We’ve participated in numerous drafts to date and collected data, evaluated the information and watched a ton of preseason football all while also gathering as much information from external and internal NFL sources as possible. After all that, we feel prepared for our upcoming drafts, and are confident sharing our advice with you.
Like most articles posted on SportsPickMagic.com, this piece about players to target in 2022 fantasy football drafts is mostly based on finding the best value propositions. There are “chalk” players, the well-known superstars everyone should and likely will select in certain situations. But those aren’t the players who win you leagues.
The players who help you win fantasy championships are the ones who get overlooked and are available much later than they should be based on a combination of how they are likely to perform and their upside. If you can draft a player in a WR3 or Flex slot who produces like a WR1 or RB1 while making smart high-percentage picks early in your draft, excluding the injury factor, you should be in a position to contend for a league championship.
From that point it’s on you to put in the work necessary to stay up to date with injuries and players available on your league’s waiver wire so that you can make the in-season decisions that help you overcome the roller-coaster ride and battle of attrition that is an NFL season and finish in the money.
The playoffs are the goal because just like in real life, if you can get there, anything can happen. At that point the managers who have assembled the most depth and prepared for every possible contingency – including unexpected late-season injuries, bad late-seasons matchups, having players on teams that may have clinched playoff berths and be sitting out key guys, etc. – have the best chance of winning.
This can only be accomplished by dedicating a few hours each week to improving your team or at least acquiring knowledge that might help you improve your team – for that week or in the future. Managers who do this always have a chance to make a run to the playoffs and to play deep into the postseason. These managers also make the experience better for the other players in the league, which helps filter out the managers who don’t care and ensure that the league will be competitive and improve annually.
Managers who take this approach also can turn around bad drafts and bad starts, lifting their teams into contention simply by putting in the effort. Leagues are filled with teams that finish one or two games over .500 – sometimes teams that finish at .500 – and sneak into the playoffs. Often these resurgent teams make deep postseason runs because they have put in the time to assemble the right combination of talent and depth necessary to win a championship.
To me, that’s the fun in all of this. That’s what makes the experience exciting and makes you feel like a real NFL general manager. Drafting is a blast, and it’s always fun to build your roster and see how it stacks up compared to everyone else’s. But that’s only part of the experience.
Overcoming bad drafts and serious injuries can be even more fun and rewarding than killing it on draft night and just letting your team cruise to the playoffs. That rarely happens. Often when teams get off to fast starts managers become complacent and don’t do enough to ensure full-season and postseason success.
If the draft is the highlight of your year and you don’t want to put in the time during the season, do the rest of your league a favor and draft as many teams as you want in as many best-ball formats as you can find. For the rest of us who relish the entire experience, hopefully the information in this article will help with your drafts and give you a head start on potential undrafted players entering your seasons.
Either way, best of luck to everyone. We look forward to sharing our experiences and advice for full-season and DFS fantasy formats with you throughout the 2022 season.
Advice for the More Serious Players
Before we get started, here is some advice for the more serious fantasy football managers. Many of you play in multiple money leagues, some of which may be high-stakes leagues. If you have multiple teams in many leagues, the best way to maximize your potential earnings is to diversity your portfolio.
It’s great to have a few players who are slam-dunk picks that you would be happy with having on any or all of your teams, but if you stick to mainly the same group of core or starting players – or the same group of bench players – you run a serious risk of having a couple injuries destroy your 2022 season across the board. Hopefully there are enough players for you to target in this article so that you can assemble teams with enough variety and find enough overachieving depth players to allow as many of your teams as possible to be title contenders.
One thing to consider, though, if you are entering many leagues – especially if some of them are for high stakes – is to go contrarian and fill one or two rosters with high-risk, high-reward players who, if they stay healthy and produce at the levels they have in the past, may help you blow away the field and win some serious cash.
Below you will find some players who fit that description and who can help you win championships if they return to health and/or form. Remember that filling teams with these types of players doesn’t give you the best chance of winning, but it may provide the best potential return on your overall investment without jeopardizing the “chalkier” rosters you assemble in your other leagues.
These are players who have been dominant in the past and are still considered in the prime of their careers, but for whatever reason have been limited in terms of their playing time and production in recent years or may have question marks concerning their roles or potential production in 2022. That said, it is generally believed that if they stay healthy and active that they will see the volume and provide the type of production that can lift you to a fantasy championship – especially if you get them later in drafts than their ultimate production would warrant while also drafting successfully with your earlier picks.
High-Risk, High-Reward Game Changers
Christian McCaffrey – RB – Carolina
ADP: 2.7
When healthy, no one is more productive. There have been no training-camp whispers of those nagging injuries that have plagued him the last two years. Should you take him with a top-three overall pick? Maybe not. But if he falls to No. 5 or below, he’s worth the risk. Or if you just want the best potential player in the league on one of your rosters to diversify your portfolio, go for it. In some leagues he still goes first, while in others he’s a pariah. Play it by ear.
Alvin Kamara – RB – New Orleans
ADP: 16.0
If it turns out that he’s not suspended this season – and it seems likely that he will play at least a good portion of the season – he was going absurdly low in most drafts up until recently. The volume will be there, and he’s an elite talent playing on a good team. He’s worth taking in most formats and leagues even at his current ADP. If he drops below that number, it’s a no-brainer.
Saquon Barkly – RB – NY Giants
ADP: 17.0
Imagine drafting this guy this low and having him play like the top-five draft prospect he has been the past few years before suffering a series of devastating injuries.
Michael Thomas – WR – New Orleans
ADP: 65.0
He’s had a couple years to get 100 percent healthy, and he seems likely to be refreshed by playing for a new head coach and with a new gunslinger QB. An all-world talent who still can be picked up at a WR3 level in many drafts. While first-round draft pick Christopher Olave has been a popular topic of fantasy football pundit conversation, he appears to be the Saints’ No. 3 at best to start the year. Thomas will benefit from having Jarvis Landry in the lineup, too, and could be poised to return to WR1 status. As a potential WR3 or flex in the sixth round or even a little lower, Thomas is a chance worth taking.
Lamar Jackson – QB – Baltimore
ADP: 50.0
It’s a contract year and he’s heard all the talk about him not being a top NFL QB who can win championships. He’s bigger, stronger and just as fast and has a chip on his shoulder. In terms of production, Jackson is capable of performing as both a QB1 and RB1 within the same season. There is no one like him when he’s on his game. Think about going with two stud WRs first then taking Lamar well before others would consider him then come back with the best two available RBs still available and you should be a contender in any league. Or you could get a top WR first, Kamara next and grab Lamar. There are many potential scenarios here. You might even be able to draft four players before committing to Lamar, but we would recommend solidifying your WRs if you aren’t drafting in a top-five slot and then jumping on him before someone else does.
JK Dobbins – RB – Baltimore
ADP: 53.0
Who else is getting the ball on the ground in this Ravens’ offense? Lamar Jackson, of course, will steal some carries and goal-line touches, but Gus Edwards is out for the first six weeks most likely, and Mike Davis appears to be the current RB2 in Baltimore. The Ravens love to run, and with no one for Dobbins to share the rock with, he is lasting much longer in drafts than his potential upside might dictate.
Travis Etienne – RB – Jacksonville
ADP: 39.0
He’s a phenomenal talent as a runner and receiver and will be the No. 1 in Jacksonville regardless of the James Robinson whispers. The Jags are still rebuilding, so it makes no sense for Robinson to be more than a relief pitcher to spell Etienne. If you jump early to grab top WRs and Lamar Jackson, Etienne is an ideal candidate to fill one of your open RB slots given his current ADP.
Top Fantasy Targets in All Drafts
Russell Wilson – QB – Denver
ADP: 82.0
What happened the last time someone let Russ “cook?” He was putting up MVP numbers and had two top-15 fantasy WRs before Pete Carroll’s ego took over and squandered a promising season. Wilson’s career and numbers should be revived this season under a new, enlightened 21st-century coach and offensive coordinator and surrounded by skill-position talent. Although he was derailed by a freak injury and came back too soon late last season, there is no reason to believe that Wilson’s skills have diminished, and he is likely to enter the 2022 season motivated to prove those who believe that he is on the downside of his career wrong. On top of the weapons at his disposal, Wilson still possesses the smarts and athleticism to be a dual threat, which pushes him above other targeted QBs such as Kirk Cousins and David Carr and below only the elite-tier QBs and those who may be top dual threats such as Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. A little sprinkle on Russ to be league MVP also may or may not be recommended. You can pretty much fill your entire starting lineup then reach to grab Russ a round ahead of his ADP and likely have an outstanding lineup.
Kirk Cousins – QB – Minnesota
ADP: 111.0
Compare to Joe Burrow at ADP 58, Dak Prescott at 74, Tom Brady at 87, Matthew Stafford at 96 and David Carr at 110. If you can secure a bunch of top and targeted RBs and WRs while others are breaking the seal on the QB category, go ahead and do it knowing that players like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance and David Carr should still be available after the rest of your starting lineup is basically set. In Cousins you get a guy who is almost a lock to at least put up close to Joe Burrow and Tom Brady numbers, but who also could exceed those number by a fair margin playing under a new, open-minded coach in a QB- and WR-friendly system. Cousins was a top-five fantasy QB statistically last year in several formats who seems likely to improve upon his numbers on a team with plenty of skill-position talent.
David Carr – QB – Las Vegas
ADP: 110
Kirk Cousins part deux. A new offensive-minded coach who helped Tom Brady reach all-time great numbers in New England comes to Vegas along with the game’s best wide receiver to join 2021 breakout WR Hunter Renfrow and freakish TE Darren Waller. Again, why draft Tom Brady or Joe Burrow three or four rounds earlier when this guy is essentially guaranteed to get close to their numbers with a very good chance to exceed them?
Trey Lance – QB – San Francisco
ADP: 103
He’s the guy. Until he’s not the guy. Other than his athleticism and big arm, Lance has not shown well in preseason, but he’s been anointed the No. 1 starter. As long as the shadow of Jimmy G. hovers over the Niners’ organization, however, knowing that Lance might not have been head coach Kyle Shanahan’s top choice in the 2021 draft – and understanding that Shanahan is a win-now kind of guy – casts at least a little doubt on the situation. That said, Lance figures to get enough time to show what he’s capable of and could put up both QB and RB numbers in the process. If you’ve filled at least your top two RB, three WR slots and a potential flex spot and Lance is still available, it would make no sense to skip over him. Instead, consider drafting him and then possibly grabbing a player like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, David Carr or even a Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford with the next pick. If Lance holds the job, you’ve got your starter and a solid bye-week option who can later be traded. If Lance stinks, you have insurance without suffering at another spot in your lineup.
Justin Fields – QB – Chicago
ADP: 127
This is the reverse of the Trey Lance strategy. We all know that dual-threat QBs are fantasy gold, even if they succeed in one area of their game and are just okay – or even worse than okay – in another area. If you snag a Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson or David Carr as outlined above, maybe wait two or three rounds and grab Fields, too. The leash is long, and the job is his for better or worse. The Bears will play from behind all year, so he should pile up yards through the air and on the ground. He’s a great insurance option with huge upside. People who took Jalen Hurts late last year won championships with him. Yes, that would include me.
Tua Tagovailoa – QB – Miami
ADP: 125
Tua basically is a no-risk backup QB selection potentially worth taking a round or two earlier than his ADP, depending on how your QB and roster situations are shaping up. He’s surrounded by weapons, and with a smart offensive mind leading the team now it seems like his numbers will be pretty good simply by proxy even if his level of play is just average. Tua is a great backup option who can help you on a bye week and win games if your QB1 goes down with an injury.
Jameis Winston – QB – New Orleans
ADP: 160
Another no-risk pick who is surrounded by weapons and will not have to look over his shoulder anymore. He will be a top-15 QB production-wise, and you’ll be able to grab him in the final three rounds of most drafts. Consider taking him just before that.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR – Detroit
ADP: 54
Did you see this guy play down the stretch last year? Sure, he caught teams off guard, but he is a beast and nearly impossible to cover 1-on-1. And he’s a playmaker in the red zone. The Lions have added some pieces around him and already had weapons at TE and RB in TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. Will that take away from his target share? Perhaps. But it’s clear that Jared Goff trusts him in every key situation as well as in the red zone, and you can’t just double team the guy all day and let others run wild. He’s being taken way too low, like almost in WR 3 territory when WR 1 numbers are very possible. Imagine if you get Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin as your first two WRs and can pick up a starting RB or two along the way. St. Brown as your No. 3 or a Flex? Yes please!
Tyreek Hill – WR Miami
ADP: 22
Many pro personnel guys think Hill is the top offensive weapon in the NFL. He’s been the darling of past fantasy drafts, but this year is dropping into the 20s! Talking heads are saying that his ability as such a great deep threat will be wasted playing with a QB who may not be able to throw the deep ball. Don’t you think a sharp offensive mind like Mike McDaniel is going to figure out ways to get one of the quickest and most-explosive players in the league the ball in space? Hill dropping to the late-second and even the third round is absurd. Grab him if that opportunity presents itself.
Stefon Diggs – WR – Buffalo
ADP: 13
Diggs is a proven top-tier NFL WR who is part of what might be the league’s most dangerous offense and who is dropping into the teens in many drafts after a less-than-stellar 2021. He’s a guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder and will use anything and everything as motivation. Diggs is fast, runs good routes, gets off the line and has great hands. The combination of his drive and talent embedded in an offense that really figured it out late last year sets him up for a big season. While is ADP may be pretty much spot-on, he’s better than several players who are being taken ahead of him. What an amazing 1-2 punch you could have by snagging him and Tyreek.
Diontae Johnson – WR – Pittsburgh
ADP: 41
He’s proven himself as a No. 1 NFL receiver despite playing with a QB the last two years who refused to hold onto the ball and let plays develop. Johnson is a WR1 talent, and no matter how you slice it, the QB play this year absolutely has to fit better with his talent level and skill set. Johnson is dropping into WR2 territory. I always say that if you can get a real WR1 when others are drafting WR2 and WR3 it’s a no-brainer. Look for Johnson when most of the other No. 1s are off the board. If he’s there, snatch him.
Tyler Lockett – WR – Seattle
ADP: 104
He’s a proven top-end WR 2 in the NFL, and his numbers were up with Geno Smith at the helm late last season. He has dropped way too low since Smith was announced as the starting QB in Seattle despite being extremely productive every year. Likewise, DK Metcalf has dropped to 49, but bad teams need to throw the ball, too, and both Seattle WRs are very good NFL players. Lockett is the safer of the two picks given how far he has fallen, but if you can get Metcalf in an absurdly low slot, he would be worth considering, too.
Michael Pittman – WR – Indianapolis
ADP: 35
Finally playing for a real QB alongside the league’s top RB, this guy is poised for a breakout year. WR 1 number are essentially a lock, but he’s often rated in WR2 territory, which causes him to drop below his actual value. Consider drafting him at any point below the top tier of receivers that includes Jefferson, Chase, Adams, Samuel, Diggs and Hill. Pittman paired with Tyreek Hill seems like the beginnings of a pretty sweet WR room to me.
Denver Broncos WRs
Corland Sutton ADP: 51
Jerry Jeudy ADP: 67
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both will benefit from the acquisition of future Hall of Fame QB Russell Wilson. Likewise, Wilson will benefit from them and a more suitable offensive scheme. Both guys may pan out as WR2 based on numbers alone. The last time we checked, two seasons ago when Wilson was turned loose and allowed to “cook,” he was putting up MVP numbers while helping DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett compile top-15 receiving numbers. Then Pete Carroll’s ego got in the way, and it’s been all downhill since. Wilson should experience a rebirth in Denver surrounded by a legit running game as well this elite receiving talent. Maybe neither Jeudy nor Sutton is going to wind up as top-10 WRs, but both easily could wind up in the top 20. The hard part is figuring out which one will emerge as the top guy – much like the Rams a few years back when Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods alternated as WR1 – so the safer pick based upon ADP seems to be Jeudy. But Sutton also can be a great pick if he falls below WR 15 or his ADP of 51.
Brandon Aiyuk – WR – San Francisco
ADP: 91
Once Aiyuk got out of Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse and started playing a decent number of snaps and getting his fair share of the targets, he emerged as a strong WR2 capable of putting up WR1 numbers. While he’s clearly the No. 2 behind Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk’s numbers figure to go up with more snaps and target shares early in the season, while Samuel likely will regress somewhat. His late-season resurgence last year helped win fantasy championships. I know. He won one for me and helped several of my other teams make the playoffs. Feel good taking him well before his ADP, especially if you think he won’t be available on your next pick.
Davante Parker – WR – New England
ADP: 148
He’s flashed brilliance in the past, so why not take a late-round flyer on Parker, who finally should be a No. 1 guy for a team that desperately needs a true No. 1? Parker should be especially valuable in a PPR format since a Mac Jones-led offense figures to feature a ton of short passes and opportunities for catching the ball. If he really ends up being the top WR in New England and you can get him at the end of your draft, that’s a win for sure.
Michael Thomas – WR – New Orleans
ADP: 65
Yes, it’s a risk, but if you’re taking him in a WR 3 or Flex spot, this guy might win you a championship. He’s that good, and even if he returns to being 75 percent of the player that he was a few years ago he will be a steal lower in the draft than he normally might go.
Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster – WR – Kansas City
ADP: 75
Ju-Ju was another victim of the circus that Ben Roethlisberger’s play created in Pittsburgh. He’s proven to be a solid WR2-type player in the past – at times a borderline WR1 – and now he gets to play in one of the league’s best offenses with a top-five QB. Schuster’s numbers should go through the roof in KC just by proxy. A bargain as a late WR2 or even a WR3/Flex if he’s still available at that point in your draft.
Adam Thielen – WR – Minnesota
ADP: 72
This guy is a red-zone beast and will be playing in an offense that figures to be much more pass-oriented than in the past. Injuries are a concern, but Thielen is tough, athletic, strong, gets open and makes contested catches. By default, his numbers will go up if he stays healthy, and he could prove to be a high-end WR2 if his TD catches are close to what they have been in the past. He is way undervalued in every draft right now. Draft him as your WR3 or Flex and win a championship.
Cole Kmet – TE – Chicago
ADP: 117
If you can’t get a Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts in a favorable position early, consider holding out as long as possible and grabbing Cole Kmet and someone like a Logan Thomas, recently activated from the PUP List, below the 10th round as my tight ends. Have you watched the Bears in preseason? With Justin Fields at QB there are a ton of moving pockets, rollouts and extended plays that are just perfect for a guy like Kmet to find soft spots in the defense and move to get open. As a young starting QB, Fields also is going to be looking for a safety valve to dump the ball to when he’s under pressure. Kmet seems to fit that description perfectly and appears poised for a breakout year. The Bears have a poor offensive line and haven’t upgraded the talent much around Fields, so he’s going to find someone to lock onto when the going gets tough. I like Kmet to be that guy.
Irv Smith – TE – Minnesota
ADP: 134
When Kirk Cousin was in Washington. he played in a similar offense to what he will be running this year for the Vikings. Cousins loved having an athletic tight end like Jordan Reed back then, and Irv Smith will present a similar type of target this year in a pass-oriented system that will provide plenty of balls to go around. He could have the breakout year we’ve been waiting for.
Logan Thomas – TE – Washington
ADP: 220
At an ADP of 220, Thomas isn’t even getting drafted in many 12-team leagues. He was taken off the PUP just last week after suffering a serious knee injury late last season, so it may take him a while to get up to full speed, but Carson Wentz has shown in preseason that he is very TE friendly playing in this new offense. Thomas is a great pick as a backup who should be a valuable weapon as the season progresses.
Alvin Kamara – RB – New Orleans
ADP: 15
Keep your eye on the news, but if Kamara doesn’t get suspended, he could be the steal of the draft where he’s being selected and can win you a championship. The volume will be there. He will catch passes and play in all situations. He’s supremely talented and should be a first-round draft pick when not dealing with potential legal issues. Whether you take a top RB or WR with your fist pick, getting Kamara next would leave you with two elite offensive talents. These are the types of picks that must be considered if you want to win serious or high-stakes leagues.
Javante Williams – RB – Denver
ADP: 17
Williams is a bona fide RB1 talent who performed like a solid RB2 last year despite splitting touches with the aging Melvin Gordon. Fantasy talking heads promoted him as a championship-winning player prior to last year’s drafts, so he often was drafted too high based on his actual usage. When Gordon was injured and Williams was “the guy,” the numbers he put up – as well as the tacklers he avoided and dragged for several yards after initial contact – did indeed validate the hype that preceded him. With Gordon still in the mix, however, Williams had dropped below RB1 levels and into RB2 territory in many early drafts, but his ADP has creeped up recently. If he’s available late in the second or early in the third round – even if you already have a RB – you must select him. That seems unlikely at this point, but Williams will get the bulk of the work this year in a revamped offense that should be balanced and among the league’s best. He should put up strong RB1 numbers.
AJ Dillon – RB – Green Bay
ADP: 52
If Aaron Rodgers says Dillon is going to catch 50 balls, I believe him. If he does that and averages about eight yards per catch and also runs for 600 yards, you’re looking at 1,000 total yards plus goal-line carries. And he’s going in the fifth round in many drafts. Dillon is a great RB2 or Flex option who becomes RB1 with an injury to Aaron Jones. He’s worth considering at any point if you think he won’t make it back around to you for your next draft pick.
Rashad Penny – RB – Seattle
ADP: 79
Seattle won’t be throwing a ton this year with Geno Smith at QB. There aren’t any other viable options at RB right now given the injury to Kenneth Walker. Pete Carroll loves to pound the ball even when he has a future Hall of Fame QB and weapons like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside. That’s not changing, especially this year. Even if Walker comes back from his core “procedure” and starts to take some carries away, he’s a rookie and there is no timetable for his return at this point. Penny is going way too low. Who else are they giving the ball to, and even when Walker is back at 100 percent, there will be plenty of carries to go around. Penny also was a RB1 the last month of last season. He’s a steal where he’s currently being drafted. Don’t be afraid to take him a little earlier than his ADP.
Dameon Pierce – RB – Houston
ADP: 99
This ship may have sailed, and he may go too early in your draft, but don’t be afraid to take him as your RB2 if you’re stacked at WR. However, if he drops as far as his current ADP, which has been inching up, he would be a no-brainer as a tremendous RB3/Flex pick who likely will perform better than that as well. You’ll just have to play this one by ear.
Devin Singletary – RB – Buffalo
ADP: 73
The Bills figured it out offensively late last season after a so-so start. When Singletary began playing a much larger role, the Bills became a top-three offense in the NFL. No, he won’t get RB1 carries. No, he won’t catch as many passes as Austin Ekeler or Najee Harris, but the combination of rushes and catches should make him a more-than-viable RB2 that you probably can draft in RB3/Flex territory. Wouldn’t you like a backfield that has Aaron Jones, Travis Etienne and Devin Singletary in it? That’s a winning combo. He will go much later than he should, so drafting him ahead of his ADP is a safe pick.
Antonio Gibson – RB – Washington
ADP: 68
He’s gone from a coveted dual-threat RB 1 who put up decent numbers last year despite playing through injuries to someone who has fallen off the face of the Earth and is getting drafted in the sixth, seventh and eighth rounds consistently. This is all because of his ball-security issues, which have resulted in Brian Robinson getting more touches in the preseason and emerging as a potential No. 1 RB in DC. Things to keep in mind:
· There have been many games the past two years that Gibson didn’t start for Washington and still ended up being the bell cow.
· He was a receiver in college, and it seems likely that he will start catching more passes and be used In more creative packages where he can be split out wide.
· With weapons like Gibson, Robinson and JD McKissic, touches will be divided, but that allows Washington to put a lot of pressure on defenses with different combinations.
· He was hurt throughout last season, so why risk getting him hurt again by plaing him a ton in preseason?
· Robinson is a rookie who isn’t just getting all the carries in his first year.
· Washington has been terrible on special teams, so why not give a talent like Gibson a chance to return kicks if he isn’t getting every RB touch?
· RBs get hurt, so if Robinson truly is the No. 1 and gets hurt, Gibson will get all the RB1 touches.
There’s no way you should take Gibson in the top six rounds, but there is no way you should pass him over in the seventh round or below. Guys like this can win you leagues, and who knows how his role might evolve if they start throwing him the ball.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB – Kansas City
ADP: 69
With fantasy football media fawning over Isiah Pacheco and CEH’s ADP rapidly dropping, it makes me feel very confident taking him in the 70s or 80s as a RB3/Flex who could put up RB1 and RB2 numbers. Pacheco’s college analytics don’t necessarily translate to NFL success, and his preseason usage felt more like Any Reid was trying to figure out if he actually has pro potential instead of just anointing him as their RB1 or RB1A. Jerick McKinnon is a great insurance policy and change-of-pace guy, but he’s never proven to be a true starting-caliber RB and is fragile. CEH is part of one of the league’s top offenses and will be healthy going into this season. He will be given every opportunity to succeed, and if he doesn’t, at that point it surely will be time to move on. Like with Antonio Gibson, I’m happy to grab a guy who has been a late first-round, early second-round pick the last two years in the seventh round or later.
Elijah Mitchell – RB – San Francisco
ADP: 48
The only concern here is Mitchell’s health, but when healthy he has put up eye-popping numbers and is in an offensive system that regularly allows running backs to overachieve. Sure, Trey Lance is going to run the ball and maybe take some opportunities away from Mitchell, but Kyle Shanahan lived through the RGIII debacle and is going to go out of his way to not get his first-round draft pick QB killed. And while Deebo Samuel was a pleasant surprise running the ball in a late-season gadget role, Samuel has made his thoughts on that clear and is too valuable for Shanahan to risk injury to him by giving him too many carries. With defenses having to focus on the athletic Lance while worrying about receivers such as Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, Mitchell should be able to avoid being the focus of the offense and not have to take too many dangerous direct hits. The bottom line is Shanahan will establish the run, his teams always are successful running the ball and Mitchell is the top guy. He’s being drafted way too low and could but up RB1 numbers as a low RB2 pick.
Kenneth Gainwell – RB – Philadelphia
ADP: 123
We like running backs who we know are going to get a guaranteed percentage of touches – even if it’s not the most – and will be considered in the passing game and on the goal line. Because of that, Gainwell is a no-brainer as a RB4 or even lower and seems to have a pretty good opportunity eventually to become RB1 in Phiadelphia – or at the very least get half the touches – if Miles Sanders continues to underwhelm. Of course and injury to Sanders immediately elevates Gainwell to RB 1 status.
Rhamondre Stevenson – RB – New England
ADP: 89
This guy is going to flourish in the James White role and is an injury to Damien Harris away from being a full RB1 and putting up gigantic numbers. Yes. Please.
Alexander Mattison – RB – Minnesota
ADP: 114
Dalvin Cook continues to play Russian roulette with his injured shoulder. Cook is a virtual lock to miss 3-4 games a year because of injuries, but that may turn into most of a season if his shoulder keeps popping out and surgery is required. Mattison, an automatic start in any fantasy lineup if Cook is out, ad he could help win you a championship if Cook misses a large chunk of time. He’s being taken later than in past years for no good reason.
Tyler Allgeier – RB – Atlanta
ADP: 139
Simply put, he’s the most talented RB on the Falcons’ roster, and Atlanta would be doing its rebuild a disservice by holding him back too far into this season. It won’t take long for everyone to see that this will be a lost season in the ATL, so there will be no risk in playing Allgeier in a RB1 role early on. Stash him with a very late pick and thank me later.
Curtis Samuel – WR – Washington
ADP: 212
They’ve held his hand through preseason and brought him back as slowly as possible. He’s seen a decent number of targets and touches when playing with the first unit in August and has the ability to be a solid NFL WR2. Samuel also has the skill set to succeed in a gadget role, which increases his value. You literally can get him in the last round of almost every draft. He’s worth the risk and worth taking before you grab a kicker or defense to guarantee you get him.
Young Gun WRs
Feel free to draft any available young WR prospect from the last few NFL drafts in the waning rounds of your fantasy draft instead of retreads like Jamison Crowder, Robbie Anderson, Kenny Gollladay, Marvin Jones, etc. Names like Skyy Moore, Nico Collins, Jahan Dotson, Alec Pierce, Devin Duvernay and Kadarius Toney have much more appeal than any of those names. Romeo Doubs and George Pickens also are rookies to watch, but they are likely to actually get drafted higher than they should because of the media fanfare their preseason performances have created.
Players to Avoid
Keep in mind that when we say “avoid,” that doesn’t mean avoid at all costs. It simply means that we don’t recommend them at or near their current ADP. If they drop well below that for any reason, based on how the draft has played out to that point and the construction of your lineup, they may morph nto good value picks.
Joe Burrow – QB – Cincinnati
ADP: 58
He’s very good and has an incredible future ahead of him. But for who he is, and what his upside is, you simply can’t give up a pick as early as he’s going when you can get guys like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and David Carr much later in drafts. If you’re drafting a QB early, you better get a dual threat like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or a guy who likely will put up numbers through the air that are untouchable – like Justin Herbert and maybe Patrick Mahomes. And you can argue that taking Allen or Jackson too early is a waste if you can get similar players – Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts – capable of putting up similar numbers who will help you as QBs and runners several rounds, aka several players in your lineup, later. The recommendation here is to watch and see how things play out. If either Allen or Jackson drop to a round below their ADPs, take them in a heartbeat. If they don’t, do not break the seal on Murray or Hurts, but once one goes you can take the other. If you miss out on them, think about taking two QBs in back-to-back rounds once your starting slots are full. Consider Trey Lance with a Cousins or Carr. And, if you can’t pull that off think about maybe a Cousins or Carr and Justin Fields combo. Don’t take Fields too early, but grab him a little bit ahead of his ADP so you don’t lose out if this is the route you choose.
Tom Brady – QB – Tampa Bay
ADP: 87
Look, he’s the GOAT. No question. And if he drops well below his ADP, of course by all means, take a shot on him since he defies the odds and holds off Father Time every year. But one year he won’t, and this year the odds seem more stacked against him than ever. The fire finally seems to be flickering, and his mid-training camp vacation didn’t do much to deter that type of thinking. Without Bruce Arians running the show and with a decimated offensive line that wasn’t so great to begin with, the offense figures to feature more quick passes and maybe a little more emphasis on controlling the clock and running the ball. Chris Godwin is iffy coming off a knee injury. Antonio Brown is gone, and Russell Gage is not AB. Leonard Fournette came to camp a tad – or more than a tad – out of shape. Brady has been remarkably durable throughout his career, but he also at times gets frustrated easily and wears his emotions on his sleeve. If he keeps getting hit and spends the first two days of every week in the ice bath, at what point does he check out mentally and either just call in sick or go through the motions? He’s 45, for God’s sake, and there’s a lot of shit going on.
Matthew Stafford – QB – LA Rams
ADP: 96
Great player. Great guy. Great teammate. Super tough. Super Bowl champion. Extremely talented. There is nothing bad to say about Stafford other than the Rams are likely to do as much as they can to keep him healthy enough to lead them on another playoff run. That means he may not play every game, may get pulled early from some games and may have to miss a couple games in a row at some point if the team is playing well and his elbow flares up. All of that adds up to too much uncertainty when there are other guys who can be had who are likely to produce just as much and be available later in the draft.
Mike Evans – WR – Tampa Bay
ADP: 27
Evans is a stud, underrated wideout who has been a TD machine and put up incredibly consistent numbers throughout his career. But everything that is impacting Tom Brady this year also will impact Evans. Most important, teams will be able to focus more of their attention on him than they have in the previous Brady years. Evans will be the go-to, so he’s worth having on your team if you are getting down to the third or fourth round and don’t have a top WR yet, but he simply can’t be trusted as a high second-round selection. Players being selected in his vicinity like Michael Pittman, Keenan Allen and possibly even Kyle Pitts are more attractive to us this year.
Allen Robinson – WR – LA Rams
ADP: 62
This guy is the darling of the fantasy talking heads. Many of those guys have been burned by him the last few years and are just looking for him to break out playing in a strong offense and to prove them right (even though they’ve been wrong about him in the past). It’s true that his numbers almost have to improve over what they have been the past couple years, but they have a LONG way to go before he’s back to even WR2 status. Given the concerns about Matthew Stafford’s elbow and Robinson’s decline of late, he’s just going way too early in most drafts for our liking. To get a share of the Rams’ offense I’d much rather wait until the very late rounds to get Van Jefferson, who could give Robinson a run for WR2 status in LA if he continues to emerge while the Robinson decline continues.
Leonard Fournette – RB – Tampa Bay
ADP: 24
Based on the three Tampa Bay entries here you might guess that I’ll be betting Tampa under its projected win total this year, too. Fournette came into camp out of shape. He’s had a volatile career that has included some temperamental behavior and injuries. While he seems to be an ideal fit in a situation where he gets a slight majority of the work, but can he be a workhorse for 16 games and survive? Highly questionable, especially as a second-round pick. His ADP has dropped from a level that hovered between 13 and 15 earlier in the summer. That makes him more palatable, but we’d much rather grab players who are being drafted near or after him like Tyreek Hill, Mark Andrews and Michael Pittman with other very talented RBs surviving until the later rounds.
Miles Sanders – RB – Philadelphia
ADP: 76
Just. Don’t. It’s always risky drafting Eagles running backs based on the inevitable RB rotation that ends up playing out, and Philly doesn’t throw the ball to Sanders or give him goal-line carries. He has Kenneth Gainwell looking over his shoulder and a running QB. Avoid Sanders and consider Gainwell as your RB 4 or 5 much later. Guys in similar situations such as Antonio Gibson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are much safer picks than Sanders.
Amari Cooper – WR – Cleveland
ADP: 64
Is he good enough – and does he compete hard enough – to be the only top receiving threat for a team that is going to run a ton and has Jacoby Brissett starting at QB for at least 11 weeks? The short answer is no. Take him only if he falls several rounds below his ADP and you can steal him as a WR3 or lower.
Darnell Mooney – WR – Chicago
ADP: 60
Mooney is a good player. He’s the WR 1 for the Bears and he had a very solid year last year. The problem is that too many talking heads have been touting Mooney for the last two seasons and now he’s probably going too high in most drafts, not based on his ability but instead based on the cast that’s been assembled around him. We will have to see how the Chicago offense evolves, but it figures to feature heavy doses of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert paired with a lot of quick passes and a pressured young QB running all over the place. While it makes sense for Mooney to continue progressing and improving his numbers, that doesn’t appear likely given the circumstances. He will be a marked man with a weak supporting cast.
Mecole Hardman – WR – Kansas City
ADP: 156
He’s had his opportunities, and I just don’t see his role changing. Hardman is pretty one dimensional. He is who he is.
Robert Woods – WR – Tennessee
ADP: 101
He’s coming off a major injury in a short period of recovery time and playing in an offense that has an enigma at QB and very little receiving talent to take the attention off him. A solid pro. he may put up okay WR 3 or flex numbers but should not be considered as a WR2.
Josh Jacobs – RB – Las Vegas
ADP: 43
He’s another year older and has a head coach coming over from a team that has been very successful spreading the wealth among multiple backs. Jacobs also is surrounded by weapons like Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, so his touches should be down. Ameer Abdullah or Bandon Bolden figure to catch some passes in a system that traditionally throws quite a bit to its third-down back, which won’t be Jacobs. It’s probably best to avoid Jacobs completely.
Marlon Mack – RB – Houston
ADP: 163
Take him only as a bottom-of-the-barrel pick. Earlier this summer taking him as a RB4 might have been okay, but with the emergence of Dameon Pierce, just don’t. At all.
Other Players Being Drafted Too High
1. James Connor – RB – Arizona – ADP: 29
2. Zeke Elliott – RB – Dallas – ADP: 28
3. David Montgomery – RB – Chicago – ADP: 34
4. Allen Lazard – WR – Green Bay – ADP: 104
5. Chris Godwin – WR – Tampa Bay – ADP: 56
6. Mike Williams – WR – LA Chargers – ADP: 46
A brief explanation is needed here. Higgins and Waddle are tremendous receivers, but it seems unlikely that the Bengals will have two top-10 wide receivers and that the Dolphins will land two guys among the top 15. Consider them if they are available below their current ADP. Montgomery will get his fair share of touches, but the Bears are enamored with Khalil Herbert, who seems likely to steal touches as the season progresses. Robinson is just a rookie who will be used only on first and second down, and Ron Rivera likes competition. There’s no way that Washington is giving up on a talent like Antonio Gibson who has shown he can be a successful NFL running back and had a decent season playing injured for most of 2021. This has to be the year that Zeke loses carries to Tony Pollard, and what are the odds that the oft-injured Connor duplicates last season’s numbers? Lazard’s numbers will go up for sure but not to the level of where he’s being drafted. Rodgers will spread the ball around, with the RBs getting a larger share of catches than in the past.