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By SPM Scott
Week 1 of the National Football season is upon us.
Finally.
By no means did the season sneak up on anyone - as many of us have been counting the 207 days since the Super Bowl in anticipation of this week - but after all the time and energy we put into drafting our fantasy football teams and all the craziness of the drafts many of us participate in right up until the last possible moment, none of us wants to get off to a bad start.
We don't want all the work that went into choosing our teams to go to waste, nor do we want to light our entry-fee money on fire by botching our lineups the first few weeks and falling behind in the standings right off the bat. Because of this, many of us put too much pressure on ourselves right away and end up over-complicating the process of building our starting lineups.
First and foremost, remember that the NFL fantasy season is a marathon, a war of attrition, a survival of the fittest and any other cliche you want to attach to it. While nobody wants to fall behind, winning a league championship is an ongoing, lengthy process that involves checking waivers on a weekly basis, studying matchups, analyzing date and finding players that help us successfully navigate injury situations and bye weeks.
Managers of teams that sprint out of the gates often become complacent or lazy, which many times causes their teams to fade from contention as injuries mount and bye weeks strip teams of their best players. And the players who often prove to be key to winning championships often start the season either at the bottom of our lineups or even in the pool of undrafted players.
Second, if we don't want to waste all the time and effort that went into drafting our teams, the best way to avoid this is by keeping it simple. We drafted the players on our teams - specifically the ones we want to anchor our starting lineups - for a reason. After doing hours of research and draft preparation, we came up with a list of players we wanted to target because we were confident that they would help our teams win and compete for a championship.
Don't let that confidence waiver just because the season is starting. Of course, monitor any injuries and make sure that you aren't starting a player who might be on a snap count or might not be at 100 percent. Otherwise, go with your big guns. Don't overthink it. The best way to screw up your Week 1 is by benching one of your stud wide receivers because he's going against a traditionally tough pass defense only to watch that player go off for 150 yards and a TD or two.
There are a ton of new faces in new places as the season starts. Every team has tried to address its weaknesses from the previous season. New coaches, coordinators, position coaches and players have been brought in by teams around the NFL.
Last year's Swiss cheese pass defense might have added a pass-rushing beast via the draft or free agency who helps turn that porous secondary into a shut-down unit. A couple of new offensive linemen might turn an average running back into an all-pro or help a quarterback who was seeing ghosts have enough time to pick defenses apart.
In some cases, it's easy to see which teams have improved their personnel and which units figure to play better this season, but many times it's the under-the-radar additions who we don't know about, the young players who develop into key contributors or the veterans coming back from injuries who make the difference.
And no matter what, there's no way to tell how a group of new players who are unfamiliar with each other will play together early in the season or how quickly a team will adjust to a new coach or coordinator.
Throw a few training-camp injuries into the equation, and now we really have a volatile and unpredictable situation. Every year there are surprise teams that outperform everyone's expectations. That's why they are considered surprises, and there's almost no way to predict which teams might do that.
Whenever there is so much uncertainty and so many variables we can't control, the best path to take is one that maximizes our odds of being successful. For Week 1 of our fantasy football seasons that means we play our best players and our players who are guaranteed to get the most touches and targets. Ceiling over upside and volume over potential.
Period.
Hopefully you drafted well enough that there are some touch decisions to be made because of your team's depth. That's a good problem to have, but for the most part by using this approach it should be pretty easy to determine who you should start.
Remember to keep it simple stupid, and maybe just maybe you'll earn good-luck kiss from the Fantasy Football Gods.
Here are our eight full-season fantasy teams and what our Week 1 lineups most likely will look like.
Team 1 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Herbert
RB - Barkley, Pacheco, Javonte W.
WR - Deebo, ARSB, Toney
TE - Hockenson
K - Myers
D - Jets
Bench
Richardson, Moss, Vaughn, Bateman, Chark, Nico C., C. Samuel
Team 2 - 12 Team Deep PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - D. Watson
RB - Najee, Pierce, Jamaal Williams
WR - Amon-Ra, M. Williams, Godwin, Toney,
TE - Dulcich
K - Sanders
D - Commanders
Bench
Cousins, Allgeier, MVS, Vaughn, G. Davis, Mooney, Kelce
Team 3 - High Stakes 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - D. Watson
RB - Bijan R., Mattison, Gibson
WR - D. Adams, Deebo, DJ Moore,
TE - Pitts
K - Koo
D - Dolphins
Bench
Richardson, Howell, Charbonnet, Hunt, C. Samuel, Thielen, MVS, Mingo, Jameson Williams
Team 4 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - D. Watson
RB - Najee, Mattison, J. Cook
WR - Chase, Olave
TE - Schultz
K - Gano
D - Packers
Bench
JSN, Toney, Charbonnet, Richardson, Bateman, Achane, DJ Moore
Team 5 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Hurts
RB - Pierce, Dobbins, R. White
WR - Chase, Amon-Ra
TE - Schultz
K - Butker
D - Commanders
Bench
Javonte, Aiyuk, G. Davis, Gibson, Bateman, Prescott
Team 6 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Lamar
RB - R. White, Walker, Brian Robinson
WR - Diggs, Lamb
TE - Goedert
K - Sanders
D - Commanders
Bench
Geno, CEH, Hunt, D.J. Moore, Cooks, Doubs, Sutton
Team 7 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Fields
RB - Etienne, Henry
WR - Hill, Deebo, Lockett, M. Evans
TE - Kincaid
K - Gano
D - Browns
Bench
Geno, Howell, Brian Robinson, G. Edwards, McKinnon, Samuel, Chark, Jameson Williams, Ferguson
Team 8 - 18 Team Guillotine
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE
QB - Lamar
RB - Chubb, J. Cook, K. Herbert
WR - London, DJ Moore, Cooks
TE - Dulcich
K - Gano
D - Browns
Bench
Tannehill, Hunt, CEH, Burks, C. Samuel, Ertz