BY SPM Scott
Welcome to Week 3 of the National Football League Season, and welcome to reality. After two weeks of mostly playing our studs and players who we targeted in our various drafts, everything starts to get real now.
Injuries are prevalent, and some of them, like the ones to Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins and Trevon Diggs, have been devastating for the players, their NFL teams and our fantasy lineups. Other injuries have sidelined players like promising rookie Anthony Richardson, stud RB Saquon Barkley, steady RB David Montgomery and rookie QB Bryce Young for shorter periods.
Regardless, injuries are not an excuse, they are a reality when it comes to football. Whether an injury sidelines a player for the season or for a few games, it tests our depth and waiver-wire acumen.
The reality of our draft success - or ineptitude - rapidly is becoming apparent as well, and this is a huge week for mangers of teams that have underperforming players. Hopefully, if you've had some injuries or players who are underperforming or underused, you've done your due diligence and have added some depth - or even a potential starter or two from the waiver wire.
While we've been adamant that it's not time to panic after a week or two, we've also stressed the importance of getting in the habit of checking waivers every week and never being afraid to replace a player on your roster with one you are convinced is better.
This is how you build depth and create lineup options that can help you win a game when you have minor injuries, bad matchups for your top players or several players on a bye week at the same time.
Creating depth and improving your roster also makes for more difficult lineup decisions. This is a good problem to have, but having too many good players in the same position can make it extremely challenging to discern which players should start each week.
As you build depth it's smart to also get in the habit each week of comparing your roster to the others in the league to determine if there are any teams that are weak in an area you are strong and vice versa. While you might want to wait a few weeks to gather more data and see how your team progresses before thinking about making any trade offers, if you are off to an 0-2 start and can't find help on waivers, a trade could be the quick fix you need to stay competitive.
It's still too early to panic, but a team that drops to 0-3 after this week will have to provably be three or four games above .500 between now and the week that your playoffs start to have a legitimate shot at qualifying for the postseason. If you are 0-2 heading into Week 3, it's a good idea to get a feel for the other rosters to have some potential trade partners in mind in case another loss is in store for this week.
That brings us back to our draft results. If you targeted certain players in your drafts, that means that you might have them on multiple rosters, which can be devastating if any of them are drastically under performing.
For example, some of our running-back targets who ended up on multiple teams included:
James Cook
Brian Robinson
Alexander Mattison
Najee Harris
Dameon Pierce
Javonte Williams
Jerick McKinnon
Rachaad White
We've been thrilled with Robinson and Cook and expected Williams to be a work in progress coming off a major knee injury. White came to life last week and his a high-volume guy for the Bucs. Mattison, Pierce, McKinnon and Harris have been disappointments. Meanwhile, we lost Chubb for the season on one team and Barkley for a few weeks on another.
Fortunately, we drafted Kareem Hunt late in three drafts and were excited to see him sign with the Browns this week, but he can't be counted on yet, so we will have to see how his usage progresses in the weeks ahead. We also have drafted and picked up on waivers players like Gus Edwards, Tony Jones and Tyler Allgeier.
Mattison, Pierce and Harris still are high-volume backs who should be in our lineups again this week, but if the results aren't there again it's going to be time to start thinking about a Plan B. Mattison and Harris have good matchups this week, so if it doesn't happen for them now, will it ever?
Pierce's matchup is more difficult, but there doesn't seem to be much competition for snaps in Houston, so he's going to be worth hanging onto for depth purposes even if the production isn't there right now.
One strategy is to move players like these quickly in hopes of bolstering your lineup as soon as possible before you fall too far off the playoff pace. But when they are struggling it's going to be harder to trade them for equal value.
If they have a breakout performance this week or in the near future and you aren't convinced they are ever going to live up to expectations, that may be the best time to move them. Seize the opportunity to sell high in hopes of getting a player or two who can help your team improve.
While the plan this week still is to use our best players in most lineups, we are close to having enough available data to make more educated lineup decisions when it comes to our RB2, RB3, WR2, WR3 and flex spots. The sample size still is very small, but the NFL teams that are stronger and weaker against the run and pass are beginning to come into focus, so finding the best matchups will become of paramount importance as the season progresses.
While we don't advise looking only at matchups when making lineup decisions this week, examining a combination of how opposing teams have performed defensively against certain positions along with offensive player usage rates thus far can help us make some logical lineup decisions that may not be so obvious on the surface.
The better you drafted and the more work you've done on the waiver wire, the more tough decisions you'll be forced to make. For most of our teams, because of the way we approached the drafts we are pretty-well stacked at wide receiver, which means that we don't necessarily have to rely on one of the underachieving backs in a flex spot most of the time.
For example, on one of Harris' teams we have Allgeier and Williams at RB as well as Chris Godwin, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Williams and Gabe Davis at receiver. That team also has Jamaal Williams, who is injured. His other team has Mattison, which doesn't help, but also Cook and recent waiver-wire pickup Jerome Ford to go along with receivers Ja'Marr Chase, Chris Olave, D.J. Moore and Romeo Doubs. Mattison's other team also has Bjan Robinson, Hunt, Antonio Gibson, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Adam Thielen and Josh Reynolds.
Even if this week isn't the one to move the underachievers to the bench based on their matchups, at least we can feel good about our depth for the remainder of the season if we don't make moves this week.
That said, there are certain players who should never be benched because they are proven to be top-tier players over many years and a much larger sample size. For instance, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and the rest of the Bengals have been struggling. Do not bench them.
The top-tier, high-volume and high-target guys need to be in your lineup on a weekly basis. Period. If you're at the point where you are so displeased with them that you don't want to play them, it's better to try to trade them for a puzzle piece or two who can help you rather than just giving up on them.
All of our lineups for the week are below. Take a look at how we have approached our lineups and the types of personnel decisions we have made as well as other options we may be considering:
Team 1 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Herbert
RB - Pacheco, Javonte W.
WR - Deebo, ARSB
F - N. Collins & Moss
TE - Hockenson
K - Folk
D - Jets
Bench
Richardson, Dowdle, Moss/Reynolds, Bateman, Chark, J., C. Samuel, Barkley
Decisions:
With Barkley out, we need a big week from Javonte. Zach Moss seems like the smarter play in the second flex spot given Reynolds' injury situation. If ARSB doesn't. play it might be a rough week. This team is in first place and leads the league in points.
Team 2 - 12 Team Deep PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Cousins
RB - Najee, Pierce
WR - ARSB, M. Williams, Godwin
F - Allgeier, G. Davis
TE - Kelce
K - Sanders
D - Commanders
Bench
Watson, Jamaal Williams, MVS, Dowdle, Mooney, L. Thomas, T. Jones
Decisons: Cousins is consistent and has a really good matchup compared to Watson, who has not played great to date. This is a deep league, so we an play 2-4 RBs or 3-5 WRs. It's good to have high-volume guys on teams like this, so hopefully Najee and Pierce have better weeks and Allgeier finds the end zone. Davis may be in for a rough matchup, but he's the best remaining player at the moment. This team has one win and is in second-to-last place. It is underperforming badly and should be much better. Changes may be coming soon.
Team 3 - High Stakes 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Watson
RB - Bijan R., Mattison
WR - D. Adams, Deebo
F - D.J. Moore, Jeudy
TE - Pitts
K - Koo
D - Dolphins
Bench
Richardson, Gibson, Charbonnet, Hunt, C. Samuel, Thielen, MVS, Mingo, Josh Reynolds, Jameson Williams.
Decisions:
This is a high-stakes league, so it's important to not always go by the book. Last week, we chose Richardson over Watson for his matchup and upside and then simply played the best players that we had. Richardson was in line for a huge week before his concussion. This is the end of the line for Pitts. He has a pretty good matchup vs. the Lions. Another sub-par week and we will bring in another TE or try to move him. The only real decisions here are in the flex spot. This is what we probably will go with, but Thielen, Gibson or Reynolds may have some value in the second flex hole. This team is 1-1 with 242 points.
Team 4 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Watson
RB - Najee, Mattison
WR - Chase, Olave
TE - Henry
F - J. Cook
K - Folk
D - Packers
Bench
Richardson, JSN, Toney, Charbonnet, J. Ford, DJ Moore, Doubs
Decisions:
Do we want to play Najee and Mattison? They have good machups, but moving Cook to RB and playing Ford or Moore at the flex isn't out of the question. Tough call. This is how we are leaning for now, but it could change by game time. This team is 0-2 but shouldn't be.
Team 5 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Hurts
RB - Pierce, R. White
WR - Chase, Amon-Ra
F - Javonte W.
TE - Kincaid
K - Folk
D - Commanders
Bench
Aiyuk, G. Davis, Gibson, Prescott, Atwell, G. Edwards
Decisions:
It's possible that we might move Pierce to the bench while shifting Javonte to RB and either Davis, Atwell or Edwards to the Flex. Pierce has a tough matchup, but the volume is high so he likely stays put. We like Kincaid and don't want to give up on him, but might have to grab another TE if he doesn't produce more this week. Two TEs is not ideal, but we do think Kincaid has a high upside. This team is 1-1. If Hurts picks it up the team will improve considerably.
Team 6 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Lamar
RB - R. White, Walker
WR - Diggs, Lamb
F - Brian Robinson
TE - Goedert
K - Sanders
D - Commanders
Bench
Geno, G. Edwards, Hunt, DJ Moore, Cooks, Doubs, Sutton
Decisions:
This lineup has a ton of WR talent and depth and is solid at RB, too. It's hard to argue with any of the choices at RB or having Robinson as a flex after his near-30-point performance last week. Diggs and Lamb are no-brainers. On most teams, all of the other bench players would be considered for starting spots. Time to look at making some trades with the depth guys. Or we can hold on to everyone in case of injuries. This team is 1-1 but ranks third overall in the league in points with 258.
Team 7 - 12 Team PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE, 1K 1D
QB - Fields
RB - Etienne, Henry
WR - T. Hill, Deebo,
F - M. Evans, Brian Robinson
TE - Kincaid
K - Folk
D - Browns
Bench
Geno, Howell, G. Edwards, McKinnon, Samuel, Chark, Jameson Williams, Hurst, OBJ, Lockett
Decisions:
Another team that is stacked at receiver and RB. The fact that we were considering whether Evans, Lockett or Robinson should be on the bench is a tribute to this team's depth. Tough decision for the second flex spot, but leaning toward Robinson based on guaranteed volume. This team is in first place ad leads the league with 309 points.
Team 8 - 18 Team Guillotine
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE
QB - Lamar
RB - K. Herbert, J. Cook,
WR - London, DJ Moore
F- Cooks, Allgeier
TE - Goedert
Bench
Hunt, Toney, C. Samuel, Ertz, Burks, D. Parker
Decisions:
Will have to look at this more closely Sunday Morning. We tried to pick up Diggs this week to make up for the points lost with Chubb's injury, but we were unable to get him or Dalvin Cook. This is an 18-team Guillotine league and we are firmly in seventh after scraping by in Week 1. Might need to try to weather the storm one more week and then open the checkbook for next week's waivers. Ertz has lead all TEs in targets thus far and might be worth a look at TE over Goedert, who has been disappointing to date.