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By SPM Scott
As we look ahead to Week 4 of the National Football League season, we are starting to gather enough data to make more informed lineup and drop/add decisions based on matchups, player usage and player performance. We also are starting to get the flood of injuries that are a big part of every NFL season, so as managers are forced to replace key players, figuring out what to make of this data can make or break our seasons.
This week - and going forward - we will take a look at the full-season fantasy football market and let know know who's stock is up and who is bottoming out. We'll also present any warning signs we may see, because nothing is more detrimental to a fantasy season than when we overspend on one-hit wonders who don't pan out over the course of the rest of the season.
Stock Up
Josh Palmer & Quentin Johnston - Chargers
The season-ending injury to Mike Williams won't change Palmer's playing time that much, but with Johnston stepping in as the big-play threat and Palmer having worked with QB Justin Herbert for a few years now, his targets should increase because the trust level is there. Johnston, on the other hand, will see his snaps go up, which naturally will elevate his targets, and he should see a few deep balls, 50/50 tosses and red-zone targets each week. Palmer is the safer short-term pickup, while Johnston has higher long-term value and upside.
Raheem Mostert & De'Von Achane - Dolphins
This seems like a no-brainer after last week's record-setting performance, but let's pump the brakes a little. The Dolphins will not have another game like that the rest of the season - although they will continue to run a high-octane offense - and neither of these guys is likely to replicate his individual performance from a week ago. Be careful not to overspend for Achane, as this is likely to be a timeshare situation. Both players should be rostered, but the reality is that they should be RB2/Flex plays most weeks based on their matchups, and expectations should be tempered.
Tank Dell - Texans
Houston likely will play from behind a ton, and the running game hasn't produced much to this point. QB CJ Stroud clearly has a high comfort level with Dell, and he does create matchup problems when opposing teams focus on Nico Colliins and Robert Woods. Dell is in a good spot to continue producing solid WR3/Flex numbers or even more than that.
Sam LaPorta - Lions
The fact that this guy is available in a bunch of leagues when there are so many blah tight ends out there is amazing. He gets consistent playing time and targets and can get into the end zone. LaPorta is firmly among the second tier of TEs at this point.
D'Andre Swift - Eagles
It looks like the Eagles are finally going to give one guy the shot as the clear No. 1 RB, and Swift has been great thus far. Granted, he runs behind an incredible line and should get a lot of touches if the Eagles lead in most games, but if you're a fantasy manager the only thing that matters is the bottom line - and his is strong. The only question is whether he can stay healthy.
James Cook - Bills
He doesn't get goal-line looks - and probably never will - but he's a talented and exciting-enough player to break a long one and take it to the house and and also is a good enough receiver that he might sneak into the end zone that way. Even if he doesn't, though, the last two weeks he's averaged about 110 yards on the ground and while also adding 40 receiving yards on 10 targets and six receptions. If he's a consistent 15-point-per-week back, he should be in your lineup every week no matter the matchup.
Kirk Cousins - Vikings
We always try to get him as a backup and take him a little earlier in drafts than most backups because he can win you fantasy championships if your starter goes down. This year, however, despite his team's 0-3 record, he is putting up fantasy starter numbers, which should continue. Minnesota's running game is average, and Cousins has great weapons at WR and TE. If you're struggling at QB and he's someone's backup, go get him and win a championship.
Deshaun Watson - Browns
Last week may have just been baby steps, but he started to look like his old self. If he can return to a level that is anywhere near what he played at in Houston and you got him in the ninth or 10th round, you should have a legitimate shot to contend for a league championship.
Kyren Williams - Rams
For once, there is no RB committee for the Rams in LA. Williams plays in all situations and can catch passes, too.
Miles Sanders - Panthers
He's finally getting the volume that we all hoped he would always get, so he probably was a bargain based on where he likely was drafted.
Zach Moss - Colts
He's the unchallenged No. 1 in Indy at this point, which means he'll see good volume, and he's running behind a pretty good line in a ball-control offense. Moss can catch the ball, too. If you drafted him very late like some other folks we know, you should be a front-runner for GM of the Year in your league.
Michael Pittman - Colts
He has been playing well all season and is finally getting the number of targets he should. As long as Minshew is in the lineup he's probably a must-start, but keep an eye on the situation once Richardson returns. That status may change week to week.
Mike Evans - Bucs
Evans is a future Hall of Famer in a contract year with a QB who isn't afraid to throw a few YOLO balls his way. It's been a great combination so far, and should continue. If the Bucs ever get the ground game going, Evans might ramp it up even more.
Amari Cooper - Browns
Last week was a huge step. Let's see if it continues, but the chemistry between him and Watson seems pretty good.
Marquise Brown - Cardinals
No one ever has questioned his talent, but if Josh Dobbs continues to grow as a QB and Brown continues to develop chemistry with him while getting the majority of the targets - along with some running opportunities - he would be a sneaky guy to trade for since's he's still probably not in a ton of starting lineups every week.
Adam Thielen - Panthers
No doubt the veteran wideout benefits from having Andy Dalton at QB, but like we said when we recommended drafting him late, they have to throw the ball to someone in Carolina. This also makes DJ Chark worth a look going forward.
Gabe Davis - Bills
Consistency has always been the issue for Davis, but he appears to be trending in the right direction and certainly has the talent to be a WR3 who can help take a fantasy team on a playoff run. He's still matchup dependent, but if the consistency develops he might be a No. 3/Flex who plays more like a No. 2.
Josh Downs - Colts
He's trendiing in the right direction. If you don't have room for him today, keep an eye on his progress. If you're stacked and can afford to stash someone until we see how he develops, grab him.
Brian Robinson - Commanders
He's clearly the high-volume, No. 1 guy in DC. Antonio Gibson's days there also may be numbered because of his ball-security issues. Robinson is getting the volume, the goal-line touches and even catching passes. If you drafted him as a RB3 or Flex, you're in great shape. The OL in Washington isn't great, though, so just keep an eye on the matchup each week. Against a really strong D-line it's a good idea to consider giving B-Rob a rest.
Kenneth Walker - Seahawks
A stud. Start him every week. Pete Carroll will get him the ball. Yes, Zach Charbonnet is probably going to steal some touches as the season progresses, but that's okay. We want Walker to stay healthy. He's going to be a great player in this league sooner than later.
Nico Collins - Texans
Collins is a solid WR3/Flex who can put up WR1 numbers any given week. And the numbers will climb as his QB gets more comfortable. They will play from behind quite a bit, too, so there should be plenty of volume and late-game garbage points.
KJ Osborn - Vikings
He's getting plenty of snaps and more targets each week. A possible sneaky wavier-wire pick up who could have a positive impact on your fantasy lineup.
Stock Down
Josh Jacobs - Raiders
We're old enough to remember last preseason when everyone in the fantasy-football world was doubting Jacobs and wondering if the Raiders would even keep him. Many pundits said he may not be worth drafting, but certainly wasn't worth taking in the first 6-7 rounds. Well, he went on to have an MVP-type season. But that wasn't expected and likely was an outlier. Expecting him to repeat a season that was unlike anything he had ever produced previously, especially coming off of a summer holdout, wasn't logical or reasonable. He has struggled as the Raiders' offense has struggled. Will his performance improve as he gets back nto football shape is hard to tell. The offensive line is not good, but the answer is probably. He's not likely to get back to the level he was at last year, tough. Buy low if you can, but don't give up or expect too much.
Kyle Pitts - Falcons
Perhaps it's because he's been so overhyped, but managers who drafted him definitely are ready to move on. We have him on one team and bid on some potential backups this week in case we need to get rid of Pitts down the road. He's starting to appear on some waiver wires. That said, if you're team is stacked and you can afford to drop someone, get him and stash him. If your team is bad and you've got nothing to lose, grab him and play him. It's a big if, but if he does ever figure it out, with the raw physical tools he possesses there's no reason he can't be a difference-maker for a fantasy team.
Darren Waller - Giants
We listined to the hype the past several years, but not this year. He was on our DO NOT DRAFT list, and our opinion hasn't changed. He's a decent TE and not terrible to have, but he wasn't worth the level of hype that came with him or his ADP. Waller is not worth giving up an asset for, but he probably shouldn't be dropped if you do have him. The only way we would want him would be if he ends up on waivers and can be picked up for little or no cost.
Trevor Lawrence & Calvin Ridley - Jaguars
What is going on in Jacksonville? People had Ridley pegged for the Hall of Fame after Week 1, but this offense has been abysmal the past two weeks. Lawrence really is struggling, which directly impacts Ridley. The NFL is really hard, and Ridley still is feeling his way after more than a year on the sidelines. The expectations simply were too high, which is why we have zero shares of him. Ridley was going far too early for us to consider drafting him. These are two guys worth buying low on, however, if you have a struggling team and someone is looking to get rid of them. They both have track records of success, and if they ever figure it out could be one of the league's most explosive combos.
Justin Fields - Bears
The Fields and Bears soap opera has been well-documented. He can't read a defense, period, and there is no evidence that Chicago's OC has any clue about how to maximize this kid's potential and make it easier on him. At some point, Fields may just might throw caution to the wind and start running around making plays himself. For that reason, if you're team is struggling and it's almost desperation time, buying low to get Fields from a disgruntled manager could really help fantasy teams if the Bears ever just turn him loose. We don't need him to be a good NFL QB; we need him to be a good fantasy QB.
Joe Burrow - Bengals
His injury has him stuck in a high-schoolish offense that is just trying to keep him standing and have him get the ball out quickly. Managers who drafted him might be frustrated and ready to move on. Buy low if you can get him for cheap. His stock has fallen but could rise quickly as his health improves, and he is capable of turning your team around almost by himself.
Najee Harris - Steelers
There is nothing exciting here. No burst. No big runs. Nothing. But he's tough and physical and can pick up necessary yards in short-yardage situations and around the goal line. He's lost snaps to backup Jaylen Warren, but there is no real indication that Warren is in line to take over or physically is capable to take the pounding Harris absorbs. It is what it is. Managers probably shouldn't drop him, but if he's your RB1 or RB2, your team probably is in trouble.
Javonte Williams - Broncos
Another player who has been hyped up the past few years, he has yet to live up to the fanfare. The flashes of brilliance and talent are there, but he's in a toxic situation on a bad team right now and can't be depended on as an every-week starter. Monitor the matchups. Hopefully he and the Broncos figure it out soon.
Dameon Pierce - Texans
The volume is there and should continue to be there. He looked better last week, finally breaking the 10-point barrier, but only averaged 2.2 yards per carry. The good news is that he gets carries and targets, and frankly the results to date haven't really been his fault. Now that CJ Stroud and Houston's passing game seem to be developing, maybe that will open up some running room for Pierce. We're not ready to give up on him yet. If he's a No. 3 or Flex in your lineup, that's fine until his production hopefully improves. He's also a buy-low trade candidate for a team that is really struggling or a stacked team that can afford to move someone and might be looking for a final piece to the puzzle (assuming that his production improves).
Khalil Herbert - Bears
It seems like only a matter of time before he's phased out.
A.J. Dillon - Packers
He has not really seized the opportunity that has been presented with Aaron Jones out. Jones clearly is the more productive player and should take over the vast majority of the snaps once he is healthy. Dillon continues to be a disappointment.
Dalvin Cook & Breece Hall - Jets
Buy low on either if you can in case the Jets fix the QB situation here in the next few weeks. These two never will be able to produce as long as there is absolutely no passing game for defenses to worry about.
Rhamondre Stevenson - Patriots
He's in a similar situation to the Jets RBs. Stevenson is going to get plenty of snaps, but his production is tied to touchdowns at this point. That's not ideal for a player who was thought to be a fantasy RB2 at worst.
Antonio GIbson - Commanders
Many projections his had him outplaying Brian Robinson this year, and he often was drafted higher than Robinson. We knew all along that B-Rob was going to be the volume guy in DC, but expected Gibson to get 6-8 targets a game in the new Washington offense. We love Gibson but are on the verge of giving up on him once and for all. He needs a change of scenery to a place where a team will take advantage of his talent and let him do what he's good at. Even if Robinson gets hurt, it seems more likely that Chris Rodriguez would assume the starting role over Gibson.
Tee Higgins - Bengals
It's not good right now, but it will get better. Buy low if you can. He's a legit WR2 in any league once Burrow is healthy. No one is trading Ja'Mar Chase, so go get this dude.
Garrett Wilson - Jets
These guys are doing okay, but they are much better than okay players. Consider buying low if you can. As Sam Howell figure sthings out and Eric Bieniemy learns more about the talent at his disposal, these two very well could become key fantasy players down the stretch.
DJ Moore - Bears
How great could this guy be as a WR2 on a team with a legitimate offense and a decent QB? That's not happening. A great talent who really competes, he's just been dealt a terrible hand thus far during his career.
Terry McLaurin & Jahan Dotson - Commanders
These guys are doing okay, but they are much better than okay players. Consider buying low if you can. As Sam Howell figures things out and Eric Bieniemy learns more about the talent at his disposal, these two very well could become key fantasy players later in the season.
Drake London - Falcons
If QB Desmond Ridder starts to improve and get more comfortable, London could turn out to be a second-half wonder. Unfortunately, we're not sure that Ridder is going to get much better, and Arthur Smith is going to continue to pound the ball with his talented RBs.
Stream Team
These are players who likely are available on waivers and may not be worth occupying a roster spot for the full season. They are improving or are good enough to roster for a week or two to help you win a couple games if your team has injuries or several players on byes.
As of now, these players are completely matchup-dependent. It's also important to check their teams' injury situation to make sure they will be a part of the offensive game plan:
Quarterbacks
CJ Stroud - Texans
Andy Dalton - Panthers
Jordan Love - Packers
Geno Smith - Seahawks
Brock Purdy - 49ers
Daniel Jones - Giants
Running Backs
Jerick McKinnon - Chiefs
Justice Hill - Ravens
Matt Breida - Giants
Jaylen Warren - Steelers
Kenneth Gainwell - Eagles
Tyjae Spears - Titans
Rico Dowdle - Cowboys
Wide Receivers
Robert Woods - Texans
DJ Chark - Panthers
Davante Parker - Patriots
Jayden Reed - Packers
Tyler Boyd - Bengals
Treylon Burks - Titans
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Chiefs
Rasheed Rice - Chiefs
Tight Ends
Luke Musgrave - Packers
Jake Ferguson - Cowboys
Logan Thomas - Commanders
Donald Parham - Chargers
Noah Fant - Seahawks