July 10 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
AlgaVision July 10 Selection
Mets -220 vs. Pirates - WIN Mets 13-4
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 12-6 (67%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 36-17 (68%)
Today's AlgaVision Secondary Selection with a win probability better than 60%: Oakland Athletics -118 at Texas Rangers.
Notes & Nuggets
Well, we've had better nights, but for us to still be at 57% overall after the worst night we've had in recent memory isn't nearly the end of the world. And, AlgaVision keeps crushing it. Primary (70%+ win probability) Selections and Secondary Selections (60%+ win probability) are a combined 12-6 in the last 18 picks (67%) and 36-17 (68%) since May 1. Check out this incredible product and special product-launch pricing at www.AlgaVision.com. We've been tracking the results for nearly five years and can verify a 64% win rate over that period in MLB, NBA, NFL, college football and college basketball.
July 10 Tracked Games & Probabilities
Stay tuned. We are not on the early 1:10 p.m. EDT game today between the Blue Jays and Rays as there is too much conflicting information. The line has gone from -115 in favor of the Rays to -123 and back to -119. The Blue Jays are a slight public play, so there is an indication of some sharp money on Tampa Bay, but the move back toward Toronto to go along with a slight pitching advantage on paper in favor of the Rays gives us pause. Rays starter Ryan Yarborough is 6-2 to the over in his last 10 starts, and Toronto has gone over the current number of 8.5 in seven of its last 10 contests, while the Rays have done the same in six of 10. The over is intriguing with a move from 8 to 8.5 and still being juiced to the over at -120 if you can get a bet in on time. We have the Rays at a 53.45 percent consensus win probability in this one.
Red Sox -160 vs. Phillies and under 11
Joes, pros, schmoes - EVERYONE - is on the Red Sox and the over here as middling pitchers Matt More and Martin Perez match up on the bump. At least the sharps are on board, too. Boston is strong vs. lefties and the Phillies are 10 games under .500 on the road. Boston is hot. We lean toward the Sox who have a consensus win probability of 60.25%. Everyone is on the over, too, but the total hasn't moved, although it is slightly juiced to the over at -106, but falling from -110. The under at 11 is the lean.
Marlins -112 vs. Braves
This one opened with the Marlins as an even-money underdog and has steadily moved to where Miami is now a slight favorite. The good old line flip with the Marlins now a short home favorite. Both of those situations have been strong plays this year. This is an EXTREMELY sharp move, too, with the public hammering Atlanta and starter Max Fried (5-5, 4.66 ERA, 1.345 WHIP) vs. Trevor Rogers, who has much better numbers (7-5, 2.22, 1.048). Miami has a consensus win probability of 50.7 percent, which is how we are leaning on this one given all the signs in the Marlins' favor.
Mariners +102 vs. Angels and under 9
The Mariners have flipped from minus money to a short underdog at +102 despite more bets and money on the Angels. We like this movement, as it clearly is sharp, and also like the pitching matchup with Chris Flexen, who has been lights out at home (1.99 ERA, .976 WHIP) taking on Patrick Sandoval. Seattle has a consensus win probability of 50.2 percent despite its underdog status, and the Mariners also are 28-19 at home. The total is 8.5 and juiced slightly to the over at -106 right now. If it gets to 9, the under is intriguing with all metrics having this game coming in at between 8.2 and 8.5 runs and a pair of starters with ERAs below 4.00 and two top-half bullpens. Five of the Angels' last 10 games have come in at 9 or fewer runs, while the same is true for Seattle. A lot of bets and money are on the over, but the total hasn't moved off of 8.5 yet.
Padres -193 vs. Rockies and over 7.5
San Diego has been the beneficiary of a 20-cent move in its favor with Joe Musgrove and his 2.97 ERA/.915 WHIP on the hill vs. German Marquez (3.59/1.177). Marquez has been great in his last 10 outings (2-8 over/under, 2.45 ERA/.894 WHIP), so there may be some recency bias here based on his recent success. But a deeper dive shows he's got a 4.67 road ERA and a 1.298 road WHIP and Colorado is 7-34 on the road. More bets on the Rockies, but more money and a line move in favor of the Padres. San Diego has a consensus 65% win probability. That's our lean, too. The total is at 7.5, with the juice just having flipped from plus money to the over to -102. If the number holds at 7.5, we are looking at the over as Musgrove's numbers have regressed a bit over the past 10 games and he is 5-3 over/under in that span.
Nationals at Giants under 9
This total started at 9 and has moved to 8.5 despite a majority of over bets and money. That signifies a sharp move, and the line is still juiced to the over at -112. It's hard to take an under with John Lester and his 7.08 road ERA and 6.45 ERA in the last 10 outings, but Anthony DeSclafani has been very strong with a 2.84 ERA for the year. Lester is 7-6 over/under, while his counterpart is 8-9 over/under. Four of Washington's last 10 contests have come in under 9. San Francisco's total has been under 9 in seven of its last 10 games. We would like to see this get back to nine and be juiced to the over, though, before pulling the trigger.
Rangers +114 vs. Athletics
This has been a slight sharp move toward the Rangers from +125 to +114. The public favors Oakland and is fading Rangers starter Mike Foltynewicz, but the money favors Texas. It's easy to face Foltynewicz on the surface as he is 2-8 with a 5.17 ERA, but the team is 6-11 in his starts, and his numbers are actually considerably better on the road. Texas has a consensus 54.75% win probability, but we will hold out to see what the late money does before making a decision on this one.
White Sox -212 at Orioles and under 10.5
Lucas Giolito is a solid starter with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.079 WHIP in his most recent 10 outings. Tom Eshelman actually has gotten better with a 6.32 ERA in his last 10 appearances. The White Sox have a top-10 bullpen. It takes two to tango for a total to go over a total like 10.5. The number has risen from 10 but is currently juiced to the under at -118. Analytics have this one as between a 9.2 and 9.9 total. The only question is whether Chicago can go over the total by itself. We think that is not likely and will continue to monitor. The Sox have gone from a -200 to a -212 favorite with money and bets flowing in their favor. We will monitor the late movement as Chicago has received a larger share of the bets and not as big of a share of the money.
Brewers -216 vs. Reds
Here we have a big favorite with a big line move in its favor of more than 20 cents. This has been a very strong combination to play this year, and the Brewers have been one of baseballs best -- and most surprising teams -- with two or three all-star-caliber starting pitchers, a top-10 bullpen and a top-half offense. The Reds can hit, however, ranking among the top 10 in batting average, runs and homers. Milwaukee has a consensus win probability of 62.3% with all-star Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.03, .903) on the mound vs. Vlad Gutierrez (4.3, 4.67, 1.376). This is a strong lean to the Brewers.