By Scotty P. - SPM Analyst
July 6 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 9-4 (69.2%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 33-15 (68.8%)
SportsPickMagic Scotty P. Daily Results – July 5
Highlighted Games: 3-2
Preferred Picks: 4-2
Overall: 7-4
Record Since July 1
Highlighted Game Picks: 18-11 (62%)
Preferred Picks: 19-11 (63%)
Overall: 37-22 (62.7%)
Major League Baseball Tracked Games – July 6
Based on numbers, trends, insider info and sharp action, these are games we think may turn into solid picks today.
Notes & Nuggets
We had a day last week where MLB favorites went 14-0. Yesterday, underdogs went 2-9, with bit favorites such as the San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants losing and smaller favorites that the public loved such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers falling as well. Remember that it's never good enough just to be an overwhelming favorite. Favorites have won in MLB at around a 59 rate this season, but even at that rate given the juice and the losses suffered by overwhelming favorites -- the Astros dropped three straight as better than a -300 favorite recently -- there is a good chance that you would not have made money this season if you had just bet EVERY heavy favorite.
AlgaVision uses its algorithm to determine which of the favorites actually has the highest win probability. It eliminates the riskier favorites, but even then it still only is correct about 65 percent of the time over the long term. The Giants had better than a 70-percent win probability last night at -200 according to AlgaVision, but the Cardinals pulled off the upset. AlgaVision still has been winning at nearly a 70-percent clip since May 1 only giving out the top picks the algorithm picks out. That means that even during its hottest streaks, one of the top sources for selections and information on the market is only winning 70 percent of the time. Their win percentage of nearly 65 percent annually -- and their helping you avoid the huge upset losses -- guarantees a return on investment that exceeds many investment opportunities currently available to the general public.
Be smart. Do your homework. Find sources of information that are proven to be accurate or successful or that have helped you win consistently in the past.
Braves at Pirates under 9.5
Will this get to 9.5? The number was bet up from 8.5 by sharps to 9.0 this morning and has been creeping slowly toward 9.5 but right now is still juiced to the under despite moving in that direction. Based on analytics the over is decent at 8.5, but the under looks exceptional at 9.5. That means 9 is probably the right number from the books' perspective. Seven of the Braves' last 10 games have ben under 9 or 9.5. Ian Anderson has gone 1-7 to the under on the road, but is 5-4-1 to the over in his last 10. Pittsburgh has hit the 9 total three times and is 2-5-3 to the total of 9 in its last 10. Chad Kuhl, on the flip side is 8-2 to the over in his last 10 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.456 WHIP over that span.
Dodgers -136 at Marlins under 8/8.5
Keeping an eye on the line movement here. The Marlins were sharp last night, driving the line for Walker Buehler way down in the process, and pulled off the upset win. Tonight's line seems low, too, with Tony Gonsolin taking on the solid Pablo Lopez, who threw one pitch before getting ejected in his last outing. This time, though, the line is moving toward the Dodgers. It did get has high as -139 at one point, up from -130, before dropping a bit. A late move toward LA driving the move over 10 cents would be telling. Gonsolin's 5.17 ERA and 1.6 WHIP over his last 10 outings probably isn't helping. His numbers are far better as a reliever and he has a stron 2.81 ERA, but a 1.562 WHIP overall on the season. Lopez, on the other hand, has a 2.01 ERA at home to go along with a 0.965 WHIP. He's 2.87 and 1.077 in his last 10 appearances. The Dodgers won nine straight before yesterday's loss and are 4-0 when Gonsolin starts. Miami is 5-5 in its last 10 and has been known to hurt itself defensively and on the basepaths. Public bets are on the Dodgers, but money is on the Marlins. A good sign. Sometimes you have to go with the better team playing better baseball. These pitchers are split down the middle on the number. If it gets to 8.5 it's an under play for sure as the Dodgers have landed on 8 in four of the last 10 games and went under four other times. It was bet up from 7.5 as a sharp over play. It's juiced slightly to the over at 8 right now. It's possible this could be an over play at 7.5 and an under at 8.5. The Marlins are 5-5 over/under if the number is 8 for the last 10 games.
Phillies -138 at Cubs over 10
The wind is blowing out and the total has been bet up all day and is juiced to the over right now. The analytics say under 10, but they said under 11.5 last night. Granted, it took a late explosion by the Phillies to go over, but it's worth considering at 10 given the wind situation and a pair of pitchers with a combined ERA over 12 in their last 10 outings. Nola is often called the Phillies' ace, but he has under achieved this year and Zach Wheeler has been the real ace of this staff. This is a sharp over play as Nola is over-valued by the public. Philadelphia has been bet up from -121, and the Cubs have lost 10 straight. They simply can't close games or hold leads. However, the Phillies' bullpen hasn't been amazing. Chicago has to win at some point. That gives us pause. Five of those 10 losses have been by a single goal. Monitoring the number here. Playing the Cubs +1.5 on the run line is not out of the question.
White Sox -123 at Twins over 8/7.5
Chicago is 8-2 vs. Minnesota this season and they are very good as favorites (58%). This is a sharp play with a slight majority of bets and money on the Twins but the line moving from -115 to -123. Keep watching for late movement toward the Sox here. Carlos Rodon and Juan Barrios are the de facto aces for each team. Chicago is 9-5 when Rodon starts. The Twins are 10-6 when Barrios gets the ball. Rodon's numbers are better -- overall by a pretty wide margin, but they have dropped a little bit in the last 10 outings while Barrios has held steady. Maybe. the Sticky Gate effect? Rodon has been lights out on the road, however (1.77 ERA, 0.929 WHIP). Chicago has lost three straight vs. lesser teams after a five-game win streak. Everything, including the sharps gives the Sox a slight nod here, and the number is pretty good. This total has been bet all the way down from 9. It may get even lower as it's juiced to the under at 8. The over at 8 is tempting. It's a no-brainer at 7.5. Eighteen of these team's last 20 games combined have gone over 7.5 and 8.
Red Sox -121 vs. Angels over 8
Red Sox have gone from a pick 'em to a favorite here and they've won eight out of their last 10 games. Nathan Eovaldi has been good on the road and really good in his last 10. Ohtani has been even better at home, but his struggles the last time out in New York have been well-documented. Boston is better, and they've had a ton of good luck on their side lately -- but they've also created some of that luck with exceptional outfield defense and clutch late-inning hitting and pitching. Offensively they've been great overall, playing to the over frequently and scoring 56 runs in the last 10 games. The Angels also have been scoring runs in bunches, plating 33 runners in the last five contests. We like the better, hotter team here with sharp backing until proven otherwise. The total at 8 would definitely be an over. It's 8.5 and juiced to the under at the moment after opening at 9.5. When a line drops 1.5 runs its hard not to look at the other side. You certainly don't want to get the worst of the number as an under.
Yankees -167 at Mariners over 9.5
This is a tough pill to swallow. Sharps are all over the up-and-down Yankees. Analytically the Mariners have been one of the luckiest teams in the league this year. New York starter Jameson Taillon has a road ERA over 11 and a road whip over 2.1. Mariners starter Justus Sheffield hasn't been much better with a 6.10 ERA in his last 19 outings and a 5.88 mark overall. Taillon's numbers on the road may be an outlier with a very small sample size. He has a 5.43 ERA and a more respectable 1.364 WHIP overall. Sheffield's 1.71 overall WHIP is daunting. Taillon has been slightly better of late. Seattle has played better than the Yankees for the most part and is 6-4 in its last 10 while New York is 3-7. New York certainly has the advantage on paper and it's getting near now-or-never time for the Yanks at this point. Sharp money, desperation, slightly better pitching and the better roster make us want to favor the Yankees here. We are leaning toward the over, too, as the total has moved from 9 to 9.5. The pitching matchup screams over and these teams have gone over that number 11 of the last 20 outings combined. It's really juiced to the under here, so we may wait to see if it gets to 9.