By Scotty P. - SPM Analyst
July 8 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
July 7 Results
Highlighted Game Picks: 1-1-2
Preferred Picks: 3-5
Overall: 4-6-2
Record Since July 1
Highlighted Game Picks: 23-13-1 (65%)
Preferred Picks: 24-18 (57.1%)
Overall: 47-31-1 (60.3%)
AlgaVision July 7-8 Results
July 7 Secondary Selection: 1-0 (Blue Jays vs. Orioles)
July 8 Secondary Selection: 1-0 (Dodgers vs. Marlins)
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 11-6 (64.7%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 35-17 (67.3%)
Today's AlgaVision Secondary Selection
Dodgers -166 at Marlins - 60%+ win probability - WIN Dodgers, 6-1
Major League Baseball Tracked Games – July 8
Based on numbers, trends, insider info and sharp action, these are games we think may turn into solid picks today.
Notes & Nuggets
Well, we had a MLB total for a 7-inning game that closed at 4.5 with Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes dueling on the mound. The Mets won it, 4-3, in dramatic fashion and it looks like deGrom will be shut down until after the All-Star break. MLB underdogs were 9-8 yesterday as the Cubs snapped an 11-game losing streaks and the Indians saw their skid extend to nine games thanks to a double-header sweep by the Rays. Miami knocked off the favored Dodgers for the third-straight day and the Braves finally beat the pesky Pirates, recording a 14-3 rout. Initially we had the Braves and the over, but just don't have a high level of trust of either team. Easy come, easy go. For the year MLB favorites are 736-518 (59%), while the overs were 9-6-2 yesterday and cotinue to slow pull away from the unders with a 631-611 (51%) advantage.
Looking at Game 2 of the NBA Finals tonight, the Suns are a 5-point favorite coming off a 118-105 Game 1 victory as a 6-point favorite. Today's line opened at 5.5 and dipped as low as 4.5 but has settled in at 5 juiced slightly to the Bucks. This has been a sharp move toward Milwaukee with a little buy back at 4.5 Phoenix is 9-3 against the spread as a playoff favorite and 6-2 as a home playoff favorite. The Suns are -300 to win the series. The total for tonight's game has remained pretty steady at 220.5 and is slightly juiced to the over with more money coming in on the over. Milwaukee's last three games have gone over that number and they are 6-5 to the over at that mark for the last 10 games. Phoenix has gone over that number in four of its last 10 outings, with Game 1 went over that number (223).
Tigers +108 vs. Twins and over 9.5
This one stood out to us right way as a sharp reverse line movement toward the underdog Tigers. Money and bets favor Minnesota by a substantial amount, but the line has moved from +119 to +108 in favor of Detroit. Respected money is moving that number. In addition to that, Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has been strong of late, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP, compared to season totals of 4.35 and 1.391, over his past 10 outings. He's going against J.A. Happ, who has pitched ton an ERA over 8 and a WHIP of 1.8 in his last 10 appearances. Happ is 12-3 to the over this year and has pitched to the over 10 straight times. This total has been juiced to the over since it was posted with not much movement despite a high percentage of money going toward the under. Skubal is 9-5-1 to the over on the year despite having that number even out to 4-5-1 over the last 10. The teams have combined to go over 9.5 in 11 of their last 20 contests. Strong lean to the over here. It may go to 10, so beware. Minnesota is one of the best over teams in MLB.
Mariners +115 vs. Yankees and under 8.5
This line has moved from +125 to +115 in favor of the underdog Mariners here. There also has been a slight sharp move to the under. Seattle has been the luckiest team in MLB according to analytics this year, while the Yankees have been major underachievers. This is a very even pitching matchup on paper, although the Mariners' Logan Gilbert has a strong 1.104 WHIP for the season despite an ERA of 4.10. He's been worse at home, though going 3-1-1 to the over with a 5.62 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. His last 10 games have been on par with the rest of his season, however. New York's Jordan Montgomery is 7-9 to the over for the year with a 4.17 ERA and 1.251 WHIP. He's been 5-5 to the over, 4.02 and 1.323 in his last 10 appearances. The Yankees have gone over 8.5 in six of their past seven contests. Seattle has topped that number in nine of their past 10. We are leaning over here, but are off it if it gets to 9.
Blue Jays -227 at Orioles and under 11
Let's start with the total. Last night we had this game at under 11.5 despite the Orioles wheeling out Matt Harvey and his 7-plus ERA as their starter. Everything pointed to the under, despite Harvey being on the hill, and by all rights it would have gone under if not for a crazy play in the first inning that went from being a double play to a run for Toronto in what turned out to be a 10-2 Blue Jay victory. You can't control the umpires or unusual situation that no one can predict. Ten years ago it's a double play and the Orioles get out of the first inning with at least one less run allowed than the three they surrendered. In general, first-inning drama aside, last night's game played out exactly as expected. Tonight it's Keegan Akin and his 7.41 parading to the hill as the Baltimore starter. But he's going against a rookie with nasty stuff in Alek Manoah. Manoa has a 2.70 ERA overall, 2.30 in his recent appearances, to go along with a recent WHIP of 1.009. He's 3-2-2 to the over, while Akin is 4-3 to the over despite his numbers. The total has been bet up to 11 from 10.5, but is juiced to the under. We are leaning that way as well. As for the overall matchup, all money is on Toronto and we have to agree with that movement.
Mets -203 vs. Pirates and over 7.5
The Pirates were hammered by the Braves last night after embarrassing Atlanta has a heavy underdog in the first two games of that series. This line has moved slightly toward the Mets despite overwhelming action in their favor. That usually raises concerns with the Pirates as a potential sharp play, but big home favorites -- and favorites in general -- have been hugely successful this year in MLB. This one is worth watching. A late strong move to the Mets would make us feel better since Pittsburgh starter J.T. Brubaker (4.09 ERA, 1.135) has been pretty reliable this year. He has gone 0-7-1 to the over on the road this season despite having a higher road ERA. New York hurler Taijuan Walker has been stellar at home, going 3-4-1 to the over with a 1.52 ERA. But he's 5-5 to the over in his last 10 and 7-8-1 overall. Pittsburgh has gone over 7.5 in seven of its last 10 games, while the Mets have done the same just four times and been under that number in three straight. When there are so many conflicting signs, the sharp money can make the difference in how we lean. More bets are on the over. More money is on the under. The total is juiced to the over. Leaning that way at 7.5.
Royals +113 at Indians and over 9
There has been a 19-cent sharp move to the Royals here as an underdog with a fairly high total that went from 8.5 to 9.5 at one point. The total is now 9 and juiced to the over at -119. A huge percentage of money has been on the under, but the line moved up before some buy back. Danny Duffy has been a better pitcher than Zach Plesac by a substantial amount this year, but Plesac is more the household name -- and he's been a little better at home. The sharp move and pitching advantage definitely favors the Royals. The over is intriguing at 9, but not at 9.5. Nine seems to be a key total number for these two clubs, who have combined to go 8-8-4 to that number in their last 20 combined outings. The Indians also struggle vs. LHP.
Phillies at Cubs over 7.5
The first two games of this series the wind was blowing out and the teams flew over high totals by combining for 41 runs. Yesterday there was a cross wind blowing slightly in and they still easily went over the 7.5 total. We fell for it yesterday and took the under. Today we find the total at 7.5 again juiced slightly to the over after being bet down from 8.5. This appears to be a slightly sharp line move. Not sure we're buying it, though. Most analytic models have the total between 8.4 and 8.6. The pitchers are 8-10-2 to the over in their last 1- outings and 14-14-7 to the over for the year. Each team has gone over the 7.5 number in six of their past 10 outings. Leaning over 7.5. Probably leaving it alone if it gets to 8.
Padres -148 vs. Nationals and over 7
The Padres appear to be sharp here with just over half the bets, but a lot more of the money and a strong line move from -140 in their favor with ace Yu Darvish on the mound. The over has been bet up from 6.5 to 7 here despite Nats ace Max Scherzer opposing Darvish. Scherzer has been 2-8 to the over in his last 10 outings with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.849 WHIP. Darvish has been 8-2 to the over with a 2.93 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. Those overs can happen with such incredibly low totals when -- even with the best pitchers on the mound. The fact that the number is still juiced to the over is key here along with Darvish's pitching to the over so often lately. If one pitcher is always in over games and the number is very low, many times that's all you need. Eight of Washington's last 10 games have gone over 7 with one push. The number is exactly the same for San Diego, which also has gone over that number in its last four outings. Leaning toward the over at 6.5 or 7 but off it at 7.5.