By Scotty P. - SPM Analyst
July 9 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
July 8 Results
Highlighted Game Picks: 3-0
Preferred Picks: 4-4
Overall: 7-4
Record Since July 1
Highlighted Game Picks: 26-13-1 (67%)
Preferred Picks: 28-22 (56%)
Overall: 54-35-1 (60.1%)
AlgaVision July 8 Results
Secondary Selection: 1-0 (Dodgers vs. Marlins)
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 11-6 (64.7%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 35-17 (67.3%)
WE WILL HAVE A SECONDARY SELECTION WITH A 60%+ WIN PROBABILITY FROM ALGAVISION TONIGHT! IT WILL BE RELEASED AFTER IT STARTS SO YOU CAN TRACK IT. PURCHASE A SUBSCRIPTION AT WWW.ALGAVISION.COM.
Major League Baseball Tracked Games – July 9
Based on numbers, trends, insider info and sharp action, these are games we think may turn into solid picks today.
Notes & Nuggets
Let's see, Max Scherzer is staked to an 8-0 lead, but can't even hold it through the first five as he surrenders not only his first home run to a pitcher, but he gives up a grand slam to a RELIEF pitcher in Daniel Camerena. Two aces on the mound and the game flies over the total, which opened at 6.5 and closed at 7. We were on the over, but that bet got lost in the shuffle with everything else going on and it never got posted or placed.
The Indians ended their nine-game losing streak by rallying for a 7-4 victory against the Royals thanks to a walk-off, three-run homer by Franmil Reyes in the bottom of the ninth. Talk about craziness. KC led the whole way and was up 3-1 in the eighth. The bullpen blew that lead, but Carlos Santana hit his second homer of the night to tie it at 4 in the ninth before Reyes won it. This looked like a win for the underdog Royals and a sure under-the-total (9) finish. Instead, seven runs were scored in the last two innings to go over and the Indians come through as favorites despite line movement against them. We had the Royals and the over. Complete wash. Go figure.
Another underdog with a line move in their favor, the Tigers, led most of the night but surrendered the lead by giving up three runs in the seventh to lose, 5-3. We had over 8.5 in that one as an alt total, with Miguel Sano getting robbed on a drive to the wall in the bottom of the eighth that could have put it over. We also were on the Tigers as dogs with a sharp move.
It wasn't a great night for the pro bettors, who also moved the line toward the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Finals. Phoenix looks like it is going to be very tough to beat, even with Giannis back in the lineup, as the Suns cruised to a 118-108 victory and 2-0 lead in the series. We had the Bucks at an alt spread of +10.5 in a parlay with the Mets. That game was postponed, so the 10-point final spread won us a few bucks, pardon the pun. We also hit on Devin Booker over 2.5 threes and 4.5 assists, but just missed on Giannis over 4.5 assists.
Here are the games we are tracking today:
More to come!
Cardinals +134 at Cubs and under 8.5
We have a 17-cent move toward the underdog Cardinals and a sharp under move to 8 that is juiced to the over at -113. Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks has been really good over his last 10 outings (4-6 over/under, 2.53 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), but the team's overall struggles -- and its bullpen struggles -- are well-documented as they just snapped an 11-game losing skid. St. Louis has been inconsistent, but is 6-4 in its last 10 and sends an unproven starter who has fair numbers in a small sample size to the mound in Wade LeBlanc (0-1, 4.24 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). He is, however, 0-3 over/under. We will have to continue to monitor the line here. The sharp move to the Cardinals is enticing, but no as much for an underdog facing a strong pitcher with the total being bet down. Under 8.5 seems intriguing. St. Louis is 7-3 to the under at that total in the last 10 games, and the Cubs are 5-5.
Phillies +115 at Red Sox and under 11
Initially this line moved toward Boston with Vince Velasquez on the hill against much-maligned Sox starter Garrett Richards, but in the wee hours when the sharps are lurking it moved from +116 to +110 in Philly's favor. Velasquez is a battler who keeps his team in games who is 6-7 over/under on the year with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.343 WHIP. His numbers are similar on the road, with a higher WHIP, and in the last 10 games with a lower WHIP. Richards has a 4.88 ERA and a poor 1.69 WHIP, with both actually going up at home. We are leaning to the Phillies here if the line keeps moving and possibly the under at 11. It's juice slightly to the under right now after being bet up from 10.5.
Twins -242 vs. Tigers and over 9.5
This total has been bet up already from 9 to 9.5 with Kenta Maeda, a name people known having a sub-par year for the Twins, facing Matt Manning and his 7.94 and 1.765 WHIP. Maeda has a 5.03 ERA and 1.452 WHIP, so we are expecting a lot of baserunners in this game. His ERA is much better at home at 3.29, but his WHIP is 1.610. Maeda is 7-3 over/under in his last 10 outings and Manning is 3-1. The over looks very strong at 9 and still solid at 9.5, where it's currently slightly juiced to the under. Maeda vs. Manning, even on a down year with his teammates scoring at a pretty good clip, seems like a strong play as well and the line has moved more than 20 cents toward Minnesota. Big favorites with big line moves have been nearly 70-percent winners this year.
Marlins +107 vs. Braves and under 7.5
Despite having Charlie Morton, who has been solid overall this year and better in his last 10 appearances (4-5-1 over/under, 3.28 ERA, 1.006 WHIP), this line has moved 18 cents in favor of the Marlins, who are at home after taking three of four from the Dodgers in Miami. His counterpart, Zach Thompson, has been very good with a much smaller sample size and is 1-4 over/under with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. At home both of his starts have gone under, and he has a 2.82 ERA and a .909 WHIP. The teams have combined to go under the 7.5 total in 11 of their last 20 contests. At 7.5, the total is juiced to the under at -119. The lean here is Miami and the under.
Update: Late money pouring on Braves jumps the line back to -148 in their favor after opening at -143. Might be worth taking a deeper look into this. Something is amiss.
White Sox at Orioles over 10
Baltimore sends its third straight starter with better than a 6.00 ERA to the mound in Jorge Lopez, who also has a 1.599 WHIP, against veteran Dallas Keuchel, who has almost a 5.00 ERA and a 1.529 WHIP in his last 10 outings. This is a matchup that points to a lot of baserunners. The Orioles' total has hovered between 10.5 to 11.5 in the past few games and they've been right around the high end of that range, going over 10.5 in four of their last five and six of their past eight contests. Over 10 seems to be a strong play as this one was bet up to 10.5 before coming back down and is juiced to the over.
Rays -132 vs. Blue Jays and under 8.5
A lot going in Tampa Bay's favor here. The Rays have have won four straight. Toronto struggles against lefties (9-13). Tampa is 26-16 at home and 6-4 vs. the Jays thus far. And the line is starting to move in their favor despite the public being on Toronto. A couple promising young arms with nasty stuff are facing off, too, with the Jays' Alek Manoah battling Shane McLanahan. The total is juiced to the over slightly at -113 even though bets and money favor the over pretty strongly. Maybe a sneaky under play at 8.5. Maybe it gets to 9.
Royals at Indians over 9.5
This one was bet up to 10 and is back to 9.5 but juiced to the over. Two pitchers with ERA's over 6.30. One with a WHIP of 1.821 and the other 1.583. They've pitched to the over to a rate of 10-8-2 thus far. Not the greatest bullpens. Eleven runs scored last night. At 9.5 the over looks solid.
Brewers -120 vs. Reds and over 8.5
Wade Miley has had a strong year for the Reds. He's 6-4 and the team is 10-5 when he starts. His ERA is 3.06 and his WHIP is 1.155. On the road and in the last 10 games, his numbers have been slightly worse, and he does get run support having gone 7-3 over/under this year. He's facing Eric Lauer (3-3, 4.11 ERA, 1.311 WHIP)), who actually is much worse at home with a 5.00 ERA and 1.370 WHIP. His numbers also have regressed in his last 10 games, a span that has seen him go 5-2 over/under. Milwaukee has been playing good baseball, but the Reds are a strong offensive team that is in the top nine in batting average, runs scored and home runs. Milwaukee is a middle of the road offensively, but has a phenomenal bullpen. The total is juiced to the over at -122. We like the over at 8.5 with the Brewers' bullpen likely to make the difference in the outcome.
Astros -137 vs. Yankees and over 9
On the surface this line stinks. The Yankees have been very inconsistent despite taking two of three from the Mariners. Houston has been one of the best teams in the league with one of MLB's best offenses. The number is very reasonable at -137 with tons of money and bets coming in on Houston. We do feel, though, that Jake Odorizzi is undervalued as the Astros' starter with a 3.70 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00 overall and in his last 10 outings. He has not been as good at home, though, but we want to monitor this line. We like the offensive advantage Houston has and the pitching matchup with New York sending Nestor Cortes to the hill. The total has gone from 9.5 to 9 but is juiced to the over at -120. If the money moves this line to the Astros late we will likely side with Houston and lean toward the over at 9.
Dodgers -275 vs. Diamondbacks
A 50-cent move in favor of the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks terrible road record is all you need to see here. Possible parlay target.
Nationals +132 at Giants and under 9
This line has moved 12 cents toward the Nationals thanks to the influence of respected money as the public favors a San Francisco team that has overachieved this year but has been streaky lately and is 4-6 in its last 10 games. The Nats are coming off a disastrous loss at San Diego in which they blew an early 8-0 lead with ace Max Scherzer on the mound. Washington also is 4-6 in its last 10 after a stretch in which the Nats were one of the best teams in baseball and moved into contention in the National League East. Journeyman Paolo Espino has been very good despite struggling in his last outing vs. the Dodgers. He has a 2.48 ERA and .925 WHIP overall and similar road and last-10 numbers while going 1-2 over/under. Logan Webb has a 3.86 ERA and 1.286 WHIP overall and a stellar 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP at home. The current total is 8.5 but is juiced to the over at -120. We like the under if it gets to 9 and are leaning toward the Nats.
Late Mets Update: Late money pouring on the Mets takes that line from -2-5 to -228. We leaned toward the Mets to begin with. Maybe a ML parlay with the Dodgers?