By Scotty P. - SPM Analyst
July 5 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
SportsPickMagic Scotty P. Daily Results – July 4
Highlighted Games: 2-3
Preferred Picks: 3-3
Overall: 5-6
Record Since July 1
Highlighted Game Picks: 16-9
Preferred Picks: 15-9
Overall: 31-18
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 9-3 (75%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 33-14 (70.2%)
Major League Baseball Tracked Games – July 5
Based on numbers, trends, insider info and sharp action, these are games we think may turn into solid picks today.
Notes & Nuggets
What a weekend for wild endings! Two walk-off wins for the Angels over Baltimore, one fueled by a four-run comeback and a couple of Ohtani bombs. The game-winning hit in one game was fueled by a managerial blunder when the Orioles pitched to a guy who had 20 homers and over 50 RBI with a .190 hitter in the on-deck circle and first-base open. The Braves score four in the ninth to tie and then win in extras on a walk-off hit by pitcher Max Fried. The Reds tie the game vs. the Cubs on a late bases-loaded HBP and win 3-2. The Padres score six in the ninth with the game already decided to turn an easy under into an over. The Astros beat the Indians Sunday thanks to an error in the 10th inning. The Red Sox win a game that was saved by a runner thrown out at home on flyball and kept another game tied the same way before losing.
It just went on and on. Hopefully you benefitted by most of those crazy finishes, but either way your heart got a good workout and it was a nice sweat.
Late Addition
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels over 9.5
Game had been bet up since the start. Sharp money hit the original number OVER at 10. Took it to 10.5. Big drop recently to 9.5 juiced to the under. Bets are split with a little more to the under. We think enough sharp folks liked it over at 10 that this is worth tracking to see how low it goes. Leaning toward over 9.5. Would love it at 9. Boston starter Martin Perez is 5-10 to the under this year and 2-7 in his last 10. Analytics on this game have the total between 9.3 and 12.5. Jose Suarez is a bit of a wilcard on the hill for the Angels, who scored -- and allowed -- a bunch of runs against the Orioles over the weekend. What don't we know that has moved the line so far down so quickly? That's our quest to find out!
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets under 7.5
The only Milwaukee games that have gone under in their last 10 have been with Brandon Woodruff on the mound. His last eight road games have gone under. The Brewers have been red hot, winning 11 of their last 12 before being shut out yesterday by Tyler Anderson and Pittsburgh. Does that suggest some offensive regression might be coming? Maybe. Woodruff is going against relatively unknown Tylor Magill, yet for some reason there has been a huge line move toward the Mets. Still, the total is juiced to the under despite money coming in on the over. The Mets are good at home, the Mets are in New York and people are thinking the Brewers are going to come back to earth. Not with Woodruff on the mound, although the Mets are getting healthy offensively. You might want to get this one early before it drops to 7.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Under 11.5
This one has bounced back and forth. There definitely is sharp money on the over when the number is 11. Right now it's 11.5 and not juiced either way. But there was buy back earlier at 11.5, which leads us to believe there are sharps who like the under at 11.5. If it sneaks to 12, this is a no-brainer. Even at 11.5 the under looks good based on analytics, and it doesn't look bad at 11. Most models have the total between 8.8 and 10.33. One model that is traditionally on the higher side has its number at 8.8. Heavy lean to the under here. Zach Davies is consistent across the board with an ERA between 4.15 and 4.5 under all circumstances. Phillies starter Matt Moore is a bit of an unknown, but the thing is that neither pitcher is likely to go more than five innings unless he is lights out, so their impact on the game is actually half of what their numbers say. Philadelphia has scored more than four runs twice in the last 10 games. The Cubs have lost nine in a row, scoring more than four runs once in the last 10 outings.
Kansas City Royals -124 vs. Cincinnati Reds and under 10
We need to continue to monitor the line movement here. The public is on the Reds, but the line has moved -120 to -124 toward the Royals with Mike Minor on the mound vs. Vlad Gutierrez in a pretty even matchup according to the numbers. We like that Minor doesn't give up as many free baserunners as Guiterrez with WHIP advantage of 1.287 to 1.409. His ERA is slightly higher, however, over they are pretty even over the last 10. This total might have value if it gets to 10.5 or 11. The Reds have won four straight -- but six of 10 -- while the Royals have lost eight of their last 10 and two straight. Eight of Cincy's past 10 have gone under.
San Francisco Giants -220 vs. St. Louis Cardinals and under 7.5
EVERYONE seems to be on the Giants here whether you are a pro or someone who bets once a month. The line has gone from -184 to -220 with San Fran ace Kevin Gausman on the mound. Gausman was not on top of his game the last time out, so surely some folks are thinking the new anti-sticky stuff rules are impacting him, but the truth is that he has pitched to the under six times in his last 10 appearances with a 1.45 ERA and 0.742 WHIP. He's getting better overall, not worse. On the flip side, Kwang-Hyun Kim has respectable numbers but has regressed over his last 10 outings and been significantly worse on the road. The Cardinals have underachieved and really struggled on the mound and offensively lately. They also are going from Colorado to the Bay Area for today's game. The Giants seem to be a strong play here if you can stomach the juice. They are 21-5 as a home favorite and 26-11 at home overall. San Fran also crushes lefties. Also under 7.5 is a lean. Leave it alone at 7.
Padres -210 vs. Nationals and under 8
The once red-hot Nats were exposed by the Dodgers in a three-game weekend sweep. Then, after another long loss with a rain delay, they had to fly cross country to take on a Padres team that faced a similar travel situation but was flying home after an 11-1 victory that halted a three-game skid. John Lester has been pretty bad, pitching to a 5.34 ERA and a 1.552 WHIP and allowed more than three runs just twice in 16 appearances this year. This seems to be a spot that really favors the Fathers here As for the total, it's wait and see.