By Scotty P - SPM Staff
Here are today’s highest-probability MLB winners and best bets based on win probability metrics, implied win probability based on opening lines and projected lines, line movements and other metrics.
Highest Probability Bets – August 1
New York Mets -190 vs. Cincinnati Reds – LOSS 7-1
Marcus Stroman vs. Vlad Gutierrez and a huge 43 cent sharp line move have the Phillies at a 72.55% win probability, 11.05% above the implied probability.
Tampa Bay Rays -170 vs. Boston Red Sox – WIN 3-2
In a battle for the top of the AL East you wouldn’t expect one team to have a 67.4% win probability, but that’s where we have the Rays in this one. That is a full 11.5% above the implied probability, with Tampa having between a 52.5% and 61% win probability in all models evaluated. A 40-cent line move that is very sharp toward the Rays doesn’t hurt either.
Atlanta Braves -170 vs. Milwaukee Brewers – LOSS 2-1
Charlie Morton has been outstanding, and he’s up against Brett Anderson, the one weaker link of Milwaukee’s rotation. We have a 35-cent sharp line move toward the Brewers and a win probability of 67.2% That’s 8.7% above the implied probability. Various models had Atlanta at between a 56% and 64% win probability.
Best Bets August 1: 1-2
Best of the Rest – July 21 MLB
St. Louis Cardinals -160 vs. Minnesota Twins – WIN 7-3
A 20-cent line move paired with red-hot Adam Wainwright on the mound for the Cards has this one at a 58.97% win probability favoring the Redbirds. That is just 0.47% above the implied probability, but all models analyzed had the Cards at between a 52 and 60% win probability and Wainwright has pitched to a 2.86 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last 10 outings compared to Michael Pineda’s 4.51 and 1.32.
New York Yankees -165 at Miami Marlins – WIN 3-1
This line jumped 15 cents thanks to smart money as soon as Sandy Alcantara was announced as the Marlins’ starter less than an hour before the first pitch. That type of late movement always is enticing – even more so with the Yankees at a 60% win probability and between a 52% and 61% win probability on all models analyzed. This would have been a best bet had it not been slightly below the implied win probability.
Best of the Rest August 1: 2-0
Dog of the Day
These are not highly recommended picks, but if you like underdogs these are your best bets today:
Oakland Athletics -103 at Los Angeles Angels – WIN 8-3
This line moved slightly to Oakland, although it wasn’t entirely clear how sharp that movement was. But the fact that one model has the A’s at better than a 50% win probability and we have them at a 50.95% win probability definitely make them our best underdog play of the day.
Just for Fun – Gold Cup
Mexico to win the Gold Cup DraftKings odds boost to -135 LOSS USA 1-0
Regulation to end in a draw DraftKings odds boost to +252 - WIN 0-0
Overall Record August 1: 5-3 (+2.31 units)
Last 2 Days: 13-8 (62%, +2.76 units)
Overall Since July 1: 102-82 (55%)