By Scotty P - SPM Staff
Favorites have been all the rage lately in MLB, going 55-18 in recent days after an 11-4 showing on Tuesday. MLB faves have hovered between 58 and 60 percent all year long. That said, some really big favorites have struggled as of late. There are no sure things or locks when it comes to sports betting -- especially in baseball.
Before we get into our highest-percentage opportunities for the day, here is a look at how we have done of late.
Overall for August 9:
2-2 (-0.35 units)
Overall Record Since July 1:
111-89-2 (55.5%)
Overall Record Since July 31:
24-15-1 (61.5%, +3.95 units)
Overall Record Since August 1:
16-10-1 (61.5%, +3.62 units)
Best Bets Since August 1:
5-3 (62.5%)
Best of the Rest Since August 1:
9-4-1 (69.2%)
Dogs of the Day Overall:
2-3 (40%, -0.67 units)
RECAP: Highest Probability Winners Aug. 9
While there are only five MLB games today, they all carry pretty steep odds, which makes this a tricky slate. By definition teams with odds of -200 or higher are expected to win 2/3 of the time. So why not bet all of them? Well, they need to win 67 percent of the time to break even, and as those numbers creep up, you need them to win more often. Teams with those odds have won better than 60 percent of the time this season, but not nearly enough to make them an automatic option every time.
That's why we study many different statistical models and carefully follow the daily sharp line moves and consider other measurable factors before determining our actual win probabilities. We prefer to stay away from even our highest probabilities when they come in under the probability implied by the consensus opening line and other lines as projected by independent models.
These are not considered "Best Bets" tonight, but would be classified as "Best of the Rest." The Padres would be a "Best Bet" on the money line at -255, but we balk at that number. Normally we would look to parlay that with another solid high-probability, short-odds bet that met certain criteria, but we didn't have any of those tonight. Giving the 1.5 is a higher-percentage play according to our numbers than trying to find another winner we are as confident in as San Diego.
Padres -1.5 (-117) vs. Marlins - WIN (+0.85 units)
Miami has been terrible of late, with pitchers allowing six of their last seven games to go over the total and nine of 10 to go over tonight's total of 7.5, which actually has been juiced to the under at -115. Marlins Starter Zach Thompson actually has put up very good numbers this season, posting a 2.53 ERA and a 1.102 WHIP, but the Fish are just 2-7 when he starts. That indicates a poor bullpen. Joe Musgrove (7-7, 2.87, .973) has been solid as well and figures to keep this thing even until Miami's bullpen blows it. The Padres have a 68.7 win probability in this one and came in at between 62.5 and 70 percent in all models we analyzed. That number is 2.5 percent above the implied probability. The only concern here is how to play the game with the steep number. The run line is an option, as is a money line parlay with another strong favorite. We've seen a 12-cent move on the run line toward San Diego and the models we studied have the Padres winning by an average of 1.73. Run line it is!
Over 7 -125 WIN (+0.8 units)
This one sat at 7.5 and was juiced to the under at -115. We wanted it at 7, but it wouldn't get there, so we paid a little extra to get it at 7. Musgrove is 5-4 on the over for the year, usually with the total being higher than 7. The Padres are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games and Miami has gone 6-1 to the over in its last 7.
Reds -178 at Indians LOSS (-1 unit)
One of the season's worst pitchers early in the year, Luis Castillo of the Reds has been one of the best since June 4 after opening the year with a 2-9 record. He's going against one of the worst pitchers in the league in Sam Henges, who has a 7.86 ERA and over a 2.0 WHIP. These are two teams going in different directions as Cincy has played its way back into the playoff hunt while the Indians continue to falter. Castillo's ERA has dropped from over 6.50 to near 4.00 since early June and he has won four of his last five decisions. The Reds enter the contest at a 61.02 percent win probability and have a 15-cent line move in their favor. Their implied win probability was 58.67 percent. All signs point to the Reds here.
Yankees at Royals Under 10 -120 HISTORIC LOSS! (-1 unit)
This total opened at 10 and sharp money knocked it down to 9.5 immediately. When it worked its way back to 10 later in the day we had to jump on it considering that New York has gone 2-8 over/under in its last 10 outings. The Royals also have been strong to the under, posting a 2-7-1 mark over/under and 1-7-2 over/under when the number is 10 or more.