By Scotty P - SPM Staff Back in the saddle again tonight after a day off. Will recap how the weekend went for us shortly. Up and down to say the least, but still grinding it out.
Here are tonight’s highest probability matchups:
Highest Probability Bets – August 16
New York Yankees run line -1.5 vs. Angels (-135) - LOSS Yankees 2-1
A massive line movement toward the Yankees. A rested Gerrit Cole on the mound. And an Angels team flying across the country and playing with no rest. The line movement of better than 60 points to over -300 was a great sign, but too much to swallow. Our 74.43 percent win probability, which matches with the initial implied-odds win probability for the Yankees - along with every metric we analyzed having New York at between a 63.5 percent and 74.5 percent win probability – allows us to feel confident in a run-line play at -1.5.
San Francisco Giants -220 vs. New York Mets - WIN Giants 7-5
Ace Kevin Gausman vs. the stumbling Mets and often-overvalued Rich Hill comes in at a 70.53 percent win probability. That is 3.43 percentage points above the implied win probability with no metrics analyzed having the Giants at below a 60 percent chance of winning.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays over 8.5 runs – 115 WIN Rays 9-2
Baltimore has allowed a nearly unprecedented average of 9.8 runs per game by itself over its last 10 outings. Harvey vs. McHugh. Enough said.
Best Bets:
2-1 (+0.32 units)
Best of the Rest – July 21 MLB
Atlanta Braves -164 at Miami Marlins - WIN Braves 12-2
Nice line move to the ATL. Pitching matchup favors the Braves. 56.2 percent win probability.
Reds & over 7.5 same-game parlay +105 - WIN Reds 14-5
Reds have a 63.63 win probability, and we like the Miley vs. Steele pitching matchup in one of the highest-scoring ballparks in baseball.
Best of the Rest:
2-0 (+1.66 units)
Overall for August 16:
4-1 (+1.98 units)
Weekend Results:
Saturday, August 14
Best Bets
Red Sox run line vs. Orioles -165 WIN Red Sox 16-2
Giants -228 vs. Rockies - LOSS Rockies 4-1
Athletics -223 at Rangers - WIN Athletics 8-3
Best Bets:
2-1 (+0.05 units)
Best of the Rest
Dodgers -180 at Mets - WIN Dodgers 2-1
Angels vs. Astros under 9.5 - LOSS Astros 8-2
Astros -200 at Angels - WIN Astros 8-2
Royals -120 vs. Cardinals - LOSS Cardinals 9-4
Best of the Rest: 2-2 (-0.94 units)
Dog of the Day
Tampa -109 vs. Mariners - LOSS Mariners 12-0
Overall for August 14:
4-4 (-1.94 units)
Friday, August 13
Best Bets
Brewers -220 vs. Pirates - PPD
Braves -170 vs. Nationals - WIN Braves 4-2
Best Bets:
1-0 (+0.59 units)
Best of the Rest
Dodgers -170 vs. Mets - WIN Dodgers 6-5
Braves - Nationals Under 9 -118 - WIN Braves 4-2
Best of the Rest: 2-0 (+1.44 units)
Dog of the Day
Angels +110 vs. Astros - LOSS 4-1
Overall for August 13:
3-1 (+1.03 units)
OVERALL RECENT RESULTS
Overall Record Since July 1:
133-102-2 (56.6%)
Overall Record Since July 31:
46-28-1 (62.2%, +7.08 units)
Overall Record Since August 1
38-23-1 (62.3%, +4.05 units)
Best Bets Since August 1:
13-5 (72.2%)
Best of the Rest Since August 1:
18-6-1 (75%)
Dogs of the Day Overall:
5-8 (38.5%, -2.16 units)