By Scotty P.
SportsPickMagic Staff
July 3 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
SportsPickMagic Scotty P. Daily Results – July 2
Highlighted Game Picks: 6-2
Preferred Picks: 2-2
Overall: 8-4 (67%)
Record Since July 1
Highlighted Game Picks: 12-3 (80%)
Preferred Picks: 6-3 (67%)
Overall: 18-6 (75%)
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 9-3 (75%)
Results since May 1: 33-14 (70.2%)
Major League Baseball Tracked Games – July 3
Based on numbers, trends, insider info and sharp action, these are games we think may turn into solid picks today. Please note that favorites went 14-0 yesterday (unheard of) and have been winning at nearly a 60-percent clip so far this year.
Padres -172 at Phillies
This is a pretty good number in a game that on face value favors the Padres and Yu Darvish, but you still have to be careful as Phillies starter Zach Eflin has posted a 2.13 ERA and 1.158 WHIP at home. Philadelphia pulled out the one-run victory last night, which means that four of San Diego's last five games have been decided by a single run an all five have been decided by one or two runs. This number stayed at around -153 for a long time after it was released, but it is a heavy public play and has jumped nearly 20 cents throughout the day. It's hard to tell where the sharps fall on this one. Late movement toward the Phillies might change our minds, but this year favorites with big line moves have been great plays in MLB.
Detroit Tigers +100 vs. Chicago White Sox
This line opened with the White Sox at -135 and immediately after the Chicago win last night the public pushed it to -140. Several hours later in the very early morning, sharps knocked it all the way down to -124. Dallas Keuchel is more of a brand name going against underrated Traik Skubal on the mound. The White Sox are very good. The easy bet is Chicago, but you would think this line should be more like -165 or higher, so what’s the deal? Exactly. Skubal has been very good at home (3.23 ERA, 1.213 WHIP), much better than Keuchel has been on the road (4.15, 1.500), and Skubal has been significantly better over the past 10 games.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds over 9
This total opened at 9.5 and was bet down to 9 very early. It has stayed at 9 all day but the juice is pushing it back toward 9.5. Pitchers Adbert Alzolay and Tyler Mahle have solid overall numbers, but Alzolay has a 5.34 ERA on the road, while Mahle has pitched to a 6.75 number at home. Compare to their overall ERA and WHIPs of around 4.00 and 1.15. Might be worth making a move to beat the closing number here.
Twins +105 at Royals
This line opened with the Royals at -135, but has dropped to -126 as the pros have leaned on the Twins. The high total of 10 also is something that often favors underdogs. If this line flips to pick 'em or even to make the Twins a favorite, that is another point in Minnesota's favor. Keep watching this one. We'd like to see it get closer to pick 'em to feel totally confident, but you also don't want to lose the plus money if you're going to bet the Twins. Griffin Jax is a complete unknown on the mound for Minnesota, and Danny Duffy has been very good for Kansas City. That's the hangup here and likely will not allow this to be a preferred pick for us today. If there is a late sharp push back toward the Royals we would strongly consider betting K.C. Keep an eye on this one!
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals over 9
The public bet this number down from 9 to 8.5 initially, but overnight sharps took it back to 9. It dropped again to 8.5 when Vegas started waking up and getting its day started, and sharps hammered it again to 9. It’s juiced to the under still, so keep an eye on it. If it starts heading toward 9.5, we’d grab it at 9. Clayton Kershaw has been solid and consistent in all venues this season, but he’s going up against an unknown in Paolo Espino, who has put up very good numbers in just a few outings. Sharps are all over the Dodgers, too, pushing them from -190 to -250, but the unknown with Espino makes that number tough to stomach. Realistically, if Espino gives the Nats five or even six strong innings, then what does the bullpen do with that? We’ve seen how that has worked out the last two nights. Kershaw is apt to give up his runs early, and the Washington bullpen often gives it up late. The run line at -142 may be worth a shot given how LA is scoring runs, but that’s rarely a bet we would strongly recommend.
Houston Astros -169 at Cleveland Indians and under 10
Houston has bounced back after three losses in a row at home against the Orioles to outscore Cleveland, 13-5, in consecutive wins. This is a sneaky game. The public bet this line from -167 to -185 immediately. Sharps have brought it back down to -169 where it seems to have settled after dropping as far as -165. Jake Odirizzi has been much maligned, but he has been good on the road (3.26, 0.724) and very solid in his last 10 (3.97, 0.949). This is a sneaky play along with sharps who have hit the Astros at -165 after baiting the line a little bit. His opponent, Eli Morgan, has a 9.37 ERA and a 1.531 WHIP. Cleveland also has lost four straight and six of seven. Morgan’s leash figures to be very short, so something else to look at, especially given the strong recent showing by Odirizzi, is to bet the under if it gets to 10.
Oakland A's -142 vs. Boston Red Sox
One thing we try to stay away from in sports betting is saying that a team is "due," but if ever a team was "due" for a loss, it's the Red Sox. They had a bit of a miracle defensive finish to win last night for their eighth victory in a row, 3-2. This isn't about playing a hunch, though, there is a strong sharp line move toward Oakland. The A's are getting a slight majority of bets and money, but this line has moved 17 cents. Home favorites with big line moves have been very strong plays this year, and Boston's starting pitcher Garrett Richards has been downright bad in his last 10 outings (5.26/1.792). Cole Irvin, on the other hand has been solid overall (6-7, 3.64, 1.222) and in the last 10 (3.97, 1.28). Too many things working in Oakland's favor to ignore. Oh, by the way, the Athletics may be "due" to win as well. Every analytic tool we've studied has the A's winning today.
Cardinals at Rockies under 12.5
We liked this same number last night. After 8 innings 5 runs had been scored. After 9 it was 6. After 10 it was 12. That's what can happen in Colorado. A couple of key points here, though. It stayed under 12.5, so that's a win. None of the analytics we look at had the game going over 12. Same for today, where the numbers are between 10 and 11.9. And, to top it off, whenever the number gets bet to 12.5 it gets bet right back down to 12. We like this bet, but only at 12.5. Only one of these team's past 20 combined games has gone over 12.5. You may lose this one. There are no locks, but playing it under would be absurd. Even at 12 it's not a bad bet probability wise, but we only recommend the BEST bets.