By Scotty P. - SPM Analyst
July 4 Tracked Games MLB
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day. We are not tracking the hot dog eating contest, but the over-under on hot dogs we eat today is 2.5.
SportsPickMagic Scotty P. Daily Results – July 3
Highlighted Game Picks: 2-3
Preferred Picks: 6-3
Overall: 8-6 (57%)
Record Since July 1
Highlighted Game Picks: 14-6 (70%)
Preferred Picks: 12-6 (67%)
Overall: 26-12 (68%)
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 9-3 (75%)
Results since May 1: 33-14 (70.2%)
NO ALGAVISION PRIMARY OR SECONDARY SELECTIONS TODAY!
Major League Baseball Tracked Games – July 4
Based on numbers, trends, insider info and sharp action, these are games we think may turn into solid picks today.
Notes & Nuggets
MLB favorites went 10-4 yesterday and are an astounding 24-4 (86%) over the last two days. For the year MLB favorites are 708-489 (59%). Overs were 9-6 yesterday but unders are about 51% for the season. We have our NBA Finals as the Giannis-less Milwaukee Bucks knocked off the Atlanta Hawks to capture the Eastern Conference Championship, four games to two. Phoenix opened as a 5.5 to 6-point favorite for the NBA Finals with the status of Milwaukee's two-time MVP still in doubt for Tuesday night's series opener. Thus far in the NBA Playoffs favorites have gone 44-33-1 ATS (57.1%).
LATE ADDITION
Chicago Cubs even at Cincinnati Reds and under 9.5
Late line movement here as the Reds have gone from -124 to -118 during the morning hours. Kyle Hendricks is 8-1 with an 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last 10 outings, while Wade Miley has been solid all year. But he's still Wade Miley. Regression expected at any moment. In fact, his numbers have started to slip in his last 10 outings, but still have been pretty good. The hangup here is that Chicago has lost eight in a row and the first two games of this series in tight, one-run decisions. Keep an eye on this one. If it keeps moving toward the Cubs we may pull the trigger. Also, there is money on the over here, but the line has frozen at 9.5. Two strong pitchers. Leaning toward the under.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies over 9
Sharps moved this line to 9.5 early in the a.m. despite more bets and money on the under. It settled back to 9, but is juiced to the over. Six of Blake Snell's last eight road starts have gone over with him pitching to a 10.36 ERA in those outings. Vince Velasquez is 3-2 to the over at home this season. Overs are 5-4 in the the Padres' last nine contests, but they are on a three-game under streak.
Cleveland Indians +134 vs. Houston Astros and over 9
Zack Greinke is a brand-name pitcher for a top team. He also is the guy who keeps you in games that you can win with your bullpen or offense. His ERA at 3.65 is solid, but not amazing. His WHIP is good at 1.148. He's even a little better on the road. The public sees his name and bets on the under and his team. Sharps are on Cleveland today. Sharps also see that the Astros are 13-4 to the under overall when he starts, 5-3 to the over on the road and 9-1 in the last 10. Houston has the league's top offense; Greinke keeps the game close and lets the team find a way. Leaning toward the Indians and the over at 9 and maybe 9.5.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers Under 9.5
Right now this game total has jumped from 8.5 to 9.5 overnight. It appears as though some there are some big-money bets on the under, but the line still has moved up at very public betting times. The analytics show this game to be under 9.5. Lucas Giolito is 7-3 to the over this year for Chicago, while Matt Manning is 2-1 to. the over with an 8.16 ERA. Nine of the White Sox last 10 games have gone over as have four of Detroit's last five. Those are numbers that lead to an inflated number. Leaning under at 9.5 and will jump on it if it gets to 10.
Atlanta Braves -176 vs. Miami Marlins and over 8.5
This game is deceiving. It looks like it's only moved from -175 to -176, but in the wee hours of the morning, when sharps are lurking, it jumped from -176 to -200 only fall again when the world opened back up at 9 a.m. Is it possible a bunch of drunk holiday partiers pushed the line that far? Not a chance. We think this is a sharp play on the Braves with a great number right now. Get it early before it goes back up. As for the total, the public looks at the newspaper stats and sees one pitcher with a 2.00 ERA and another at 3.74. The total at 8.5 is a mid-range number, so of course many will bet the under. Well the total is juiced to the over. Sharps seem to be pushing that way for good reason since Zach Thompson is due to regress some as teams get more looks at him on video and Charlie Morton has been 7-3 to the over at home. No dice if it gets to 9. In fact, we'd consider the under at 9. Keep an eye on this one.
Colorado Rockies -162 vs. St. Louis Cardinals and over 11
It looks like we have a deflated total. After totals hovering at 12.5 all weekend, with both games going under, today Colorado sends its best starter to the mound in German Marquez, so the line drops 1.5 runs? Seems like an over-reaction, and sharps have it juiced to the over at -120. We love it at 11, but not 11.5. Get it if you can. Marquez has been 7-10 to the over overall, but just 2-8 in his last 10, so that may scare some folks off the under and keep it steady. But he's going against Carlos Martinez and his 7.52 road ERA and 7.28 ERA in his last 10 outings. We're not seeing improvement with him. Day game. Colorado elevation. Even if Marquez performs as advertised and gives up 3-4 runs over the first 5 or 6 innings, this one has a good shot at going over 11. The Rockies also are undervalued publicly at home. St. Louis has been bad, not just inconsistent, as may are saying. The lean here, along with the 17-cent line movement, is toward the Rockies and over 11.
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels over 9.5
Total opened at 10 and was immediately bet to 9.5, however in the wee hours of the morning with Joe Schmoe the weekend bettor isn't studying odds, the number moved to 10. It has stayed there, but is juiced to the under. We like it if if gets back to 9.5. Tom Eshelman, Baltimore's starter, barely cracks 90 mph with his fastball, which has a right-hander is a huge problem if you can't locate. He can't as his 1.703 WHIP indicates. If you nibble and miss and come back with 89 over the plate you're in trouble. That's his game. Patrick Sandoval has been solid for the Angels and is 5-2, 3.89, 1.250 in his last 10 -- and a little better than that at home. Baltimore's bullpen isn't good and has been taxed, so even if Eshelman goes five or six innings at his usual performance level, then what? And if he only goes three or four innings and you get deep into the pen, that's even worse. Seven of Baltimore's last 10 games have gone over this number as have five of the Angels' last seven.
Seattle Mariners -140 vs. Texas Rangers and over 8.5/9
This game received tons of tell-tale action in the wee hours of the morning. The Mariners went from -133 to -165 at one point. Then, when America opened up between 8 and 9 a.m. Eastern time this line went all the way back down to -140. That still is a decent move of seven cents from the opening number in Seattle's favor, but based on the overnight action we think it's a great number. Likewise, the total went from nine to 8.5 immediately then got to 9 early in the morning before bouncing back down to 8.5 and back up to 9 juiced to the under at around 9 a.m. Now it's juiced more to the over at -122 so it looks like the sharps are on the over here. It's a no-brainer at 8.5 and still looking solid to us at 9. Looking at the pitchers, Mike Foltynewicz of the Rangers has been one of the most faded pitchers of the year, although his last outing was strong, with a 2-7 record and 5.70 ERA. He is 6-4 to the over in his last 10 outings. Chris Flexen, on the flip side, has been consistently solid for Seattle, but is 9-5 to the over overall and 7-3 in the last 10. He has a 3.97 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP for the year, but is 4.47 and 1.28 in his last 10.