By Scotty P - SPM Staff
MLB favorites continue to roll. Yesterday they went 11-5, so that makes 22-9 for the faves over the past two days and 69-24 or 74.2 percent the past seven days. Favorites have won at a 59-percent rate for the season, but keep in mind that with the juicem always betting MLB favorites doesn't guarantee a positive ROI.
A quick recap of our recent results:
Overall for August 9:
5-2 (+2.32 units)
Overall Record Since July 1:
116-91-2 (56%)
Overall Record Since July 31:
29-17-1 (63%, +6.27 units)
Overall Record Since August 1:
21-12-1 (63.6%, +5.94 units)
Best Bets Since August 1:
7-3 (70%)
Best of the Rest Since August 1:
11-4-1 (73.3%)
Dogs of the Day Overall:
3-4 (43%, -0.61 units)
High Probability Games We Are Tracking - August 11
These are the games we continue to track as potential "Best Bets," "Best of the Rest" and "Dogs of the Day:"
Rays +101 at Red Sox
Two teams going in opposite directions: The Rays have owned the Sox lately, there is a line freeze or slight move toward Tampa despite public betting on Boston and the Red Sox come in at a win probability below their implied probability of 53.5 percent even as a favorite. Potential Dog of the Day here.
Over 9
This line got to 9.5, but was bet down to 9. At 9 we like the over on a muggy Boston evening with the wind blowing out. Also, the starting pitchers are a combined 10-5 to the over in their last 10 outings, and the Rays have gone over in their last four games and in seven of 10. Tampa Bay has gone over a total of 9 in seven of its last 10 as well, while the Sox have gone over in two straight.
Braves -120 vs. Reds
The public likes the Reds, but we have a 10-cent line move toward Atlanta. We have the Braves at a 55.4 percent win probability, 2.5 percent better than their implied probability, and they have better than a 51-percent win probability in all models analyzed.
Marlins +143 at Padres
Miami has arguably its ace on the mound in Sandy Alacantara, and our win probability for the Padres of 52.72 percent is 6.25 percent below the implied win probability. Ryan Weathers has not been great on the mound for the Fathers after a brilliant start to his career and then suffering an injury. He has an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.6 in his last 10 outings. Alcantara has a 3.71 ERA for the year and a 4.08 number in his last 10. There is heavy sharp line movement of more than 20 cents in favor of Miami. Dog of the Day?
Over 8
The recent struggles of Weathers, paired with Alcantara's declining recent numbers, scream over here. Miami is 5-0 to the over recently and 8-2 in its last 10. That includes a 7-2-1 mark to the over when the total is 8. San Diego is 8-2 to the over in its last 10 and 7-1-2 to the over when the number is 8.
Blue Jays -187 at Angels
We have 13-cent move to Toronto here, and the Blue Jays come in with a 60.6 percent win probability, which is right on par with their implied probability. The six models we studied all have Toronto at between a 55 and 64 percent win probability. This also appears to be a pitching mismatch, with rookie Alek Manoah (4-1, 2.58 ERA, 1.013 WHIP) facing the perpetually struggling Dylan Bundy (2-8, 6.14, 1.36). This one has Best Bet potential.
Giants -278 vs. Diamondbacks
Another Best Bet lock if the number wasn't so high, so this one likely will be a run-line or money-line parlay play. Arizona's road struggles are well-documented, and ace Kevin Gausman returns to the hill for the Giants. We have San Francisco at a 72.5 percent win probability, and the Giants have between a 65 and 73 percent win probability in all models. Their win probability exceeds their implied win probability by nearly 2 percent.
Over 7.5
Both of these teams have gone over a total of 7.5 in eight of their past 10 outings. The number has been at 7.5 all day, but just popped up to 8. It's still juiced to the under at -114. We want to get it at 7.5, but might risk a little juice to bring it back down to that level if we have to.