July 17 Tracked Games MLB & NBA
Below are the games we are tracking closely today that we think may turn into solid plays. We will update this throughout the day.
AlgaVision July 16 Selections
Mets -171 at Pirates - LOSS Pirates 4-1
AlgaVision will have a secondary MLB selection today. It will be posted after the game starts so you can track it in real time. If you would like to purchase a subscription, please go to www.AlgaVision.com.
Recent AlgaVision Primary & Secondary Results: 13-7 (65%)
AlgaVision Results since May 1: 37-18 (67.3%)
Notes & Nuggets
NBA Finals pivotal Game 5 is tonight in Phoenix.
The majority of the money and bets have been on the Suns, but the line only moved to them briefly and has settled in at -4. The next line move could be key as far as figuring out where the wise guys are putting their money. Either way, short home favorites in the NBA Playoffs have been over 60% this year, and Phoenix on the money line looks enticing. Overall, favorites in the Playoffs have gone 53-36 (60%) ATS this season . Home favorites are 4-0 in this series. Phoenix is 10-3 as a favorite this postseason and 7-2 as a home fave. Home favorites traditionally are a strong play in the Finals. A lot of bets and money have come in on the under, with a total that opened at 218.5 but has moved to 219 to indicate that the sharp money is leaning the other way. The last two games in this series have gone under after the first two went over vs. numbers that have ranged between 220.5 and 221. Milwaukee is 5-5 to the over in its last 10 games, but if the total had been 219, the Bucks are 5-1 to the over vs. that number in their last six and 5-4-1 in their last 10. Three of Phoenix's last four games have gone over 219 as have four of their past 10. Leaning toward the over.
Phoenix 61.45% win probability
Another interesting night in MLB, starting in D.C. where the Nationals had Erick Fedde, who had been tremendous of late, on the mound but he barely lasted more than an inning as the Padres exploded for a 24-8 victory in a preview of the possible final score for the San Diego-Washington Week 1 NFL game in September. On a positive note for the Nats, Juan Soto hammered two homers while Jake Croneworth hit for the cycle for the Fathers. MLB favorites are usually a very strong play coming off the All-Star break, but they went just 8-7 Friday and still have nearly a 59 percent advantage on underdogs for the year. Our top-probability dogs were 1-2 yesterday, with the Mariners holding on for a tense 6-5 win at the Angels. Overs were 10-4-1 and have hit 51% of the time for the season.
Our highest-probability picks went 5-3 on the evening.
Record Since July 1:
Overall: 73-51-1 (58.9%)
July 16 MLB Tracked Games & Probabilities
Here are today's games that we are looking at as possible high-probability plays:
Brewers -139 at the Reds and under 8
Milwaukee has struggled vs. Cincinnati recently, but finally exploded for five late runs to earn an 11-5 victory as an underdog last night. The line flipped from Milwaukee to Cincinnati in this one, which would normally make the Reds a strong bet but that's not how it played out as the better bullpen prevailed. Today's game features one of Milwaukee's aces Brandon Woodruff and his 2.06 ERA and 0.821 WHIP. The line has moved from -115 to -139 in the Brewers' favor, which still is a great value and seems like much less of a trap. The pitching matchup favors Milwaukee, with Luis Castillo (3-10, 4.65, 1.41) opposing Woodruff in what appears to be a mismatch. Castillo has been much better in his last 10, though, posting a 2.69 ERA and 1.144 WHIP. Even if he keeps it close, Cincy's bullpen showed its flaws last night and is not rested with Josh Hader always waiting in the shadows to close things out for the Brewers. Sharps appear to have bet this total up from 7.5 to 8. Woodruff is 13-5 to the under this year, 9-0 to the under on the road and 7-3 to the under in his last 10 appearances. Castillo is 5-5 over/under in his last 10. If this gets to 8.5 we love the under. It's an iffy proposition at 8.
Mariners at Angels over 8.5
This total has been bet down from 9 but is juiced to the over. Sharps liked the under at 9, but that's where it seems to stop. At 8.5, the over seems enticing. Seattle has gone 6-4 to the over and 6-4 over 9 as the total in its last 10 games, while the Angels are also 6-4 going over 9 total runs in their past 10. LA starter Alex Cobb has been solid all year, but is 4-2 to the over at home and 7-3 in his last 10, while Yusei Kikuchi has been 50/50 to the over all year long. The truth is that 8.5 appears to be the right number, but we think the over is favored at that number.
Mets at Pirates under 9
The total has been down from 9 to 8.5 a few times after opening at 8.5 and moving to 9. At nine it's juiced to the under at -115, and various metrics have the total between 8.06 and 8.56. The mets are 7-3 to the under when the total is 8.5 over the past 10 games, while Pittsburgh is 5-5 in similar situations. Looks like under 9 is a solid play.
Red Sox +111 at Yankees and under 8
A lot going on here. Boston is facing Gerrit Cole, so many would say this is a bargain price for Cole, who was dominant last week in Houston. But the line has moved 24 cents in the Sox' favor, and Nathan Eovaldi makes a living keeping his team in games. His ERA has been below his season number recently, too, at 3.24 with a 1.286 WHIP in his last 10 outings. Cole has posted a 3.82 ERA and 1.141 WHIP over the same span. Betting on Cole is never a bad strategy, but New York's lineup has been decimated by COVID, which has us leaning toward Boston and the under here. The total has remained steady and is juiced to the under. We don't feel that the number is accounting for the Yankees' weak lineup, with normal metrics falling between 7.44 and 8.5 runs for this game - with one outlier at 9.1. The Yankees would carry a 57.2% win probability under normal circumstances. In our eyes that has dropped to at least 51.2%.
Marlins at Phillies under 10
The total has been bet up all day, starting at 8.5 and sitting at 9.5 juiced to the over at -119. We're waiting for it to get to 10 and love it at that number. In their last 10 games, the Phillies are 7-3 to the under at a total of 10 while the Marlins are 4-6. That doesn't look great on the Miami side of things, but Fish starter Zach Thompson is 4-1 to the under with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP this year. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is 7-7 over/under thus far.
Padres at Nationals over 9/9.5
Will this number get back down to 9? Probably not. It was bet up and has remained at 9.5 most of the day and currently is juiced slightly to the over. It's a decent play to take the over at 9.5 and a great play at 9. San Diego is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 and 6-4 over to the total of 9. The Nats are 6-4 to the over in their past 10 and 6-2 over the total of 9 in their last eight. Looking at home/road splits, San Diego's Blake Snell has pitched to a 4-4 over/under mark on the road, compared to Patrick Corbin's 7-2 to the over at home. These two combined for 32 runs last night. These pitchers will allow baserunners. It all comes to getting hits with runners in scoring position. Washington was three deep into its bullpen in the second inning last night. Leaning to the over.
Giants -123 at Cardinals and under 8
This seems to be a little bit of a sharp move in favor of the Giants from -115 to -124. Anthony DeSclafani has been outstanding for San Francisco (10-3, 2.68., .997) and the Giants are 13-5 in his starts. He also is 8-3 to. the under on the road with a 2.14 ERA and .965 WHIP. Kwang-Hyun Kim has been solid, too, with a 3.11 ERA and 1.258 WHIP -- numbers that have regressed a little in his last 10 outings. We have the Cardinals with an adjusted win probability of 56.7 percent. The total has been bet up from 7.5 to 8, but it's juiced to the under.
Angels -139 vs. Mariners and under 8.5
Money has been on the over here all day, but it hasn't quite gotten back to 9 yet after dropping early despite the over action. Nice reverse line move followed by a freeze. It's juiced to the over -112 at 8.5 with a pretty solid pitching matchup that features Yusei Kikuchi (6-4, 3.48, 1.088) vs. Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.23, 1.207). Cobb has been stellar at home with a 2.48 ERA and .936 WHIP, while Kikuchi has been good o the road at 2.68 and 1.044. We'd like this total to get to 9 to play the under. Each team is 4-4-2 to that number in the last 10 contests. The line has moved toward LA all day, with a slight drift back not long ago. The majority of bets are on the Mariners, but the money and the line movement has favored the Angels. Liking Los Angeles here. at an adjusted 62.47 win probability.