Yesterday could have been huge for us, and it could have been a complete disaster. It landed somewhere in between as we went 3-4 on our recommended bets thanks to a couple of terrible beats and Chandler Stephenson being seemingly the only Vegas player not to contribute much to the Golden Knights' clinching win.
Such is the nature of sports gambling, and we're back at it again today with a full slate of MLB games and a 12-10 recent record in recommended MLB bets (+1.04 units). As always, this will be updated throughout the evening.
Latest update at 6:11 p.m.
Recommended Bets
Diamondbacks -120 vs. Phillies (1st 5 money line) LOSS
A few things to consider here. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been very good this year with a 2.92 ERA. While he hasn't been as good at home at 3.56, he's been under 3.00 in his last 10 outings. Ranger Suarez, on the other hand, has not been good. Well, let's call him inconsistent. His season-long era is 4.70, even if his road (3.06) and last 10 (3.64) show improvement. Philadelphia put up 15 runs last night, which is not likely to happen again, and historically teams off of blowout losses do pretty well the day after. These bullpens are rated equally, but we have very little trust in the D'Backs' pen and Philly's top guys are all rested and ready. We like Arizona's top-10 offense against an average pitcher with a strong starter of their own on the hill over the first five innings.
Bet: Diamondbacks -120 (1st 5 money line on FanDuel)
Yankees-Mets under 7.5 (-120) MIRACLE WIN IN EXTRAS!
We've gone back and forth on wether this is just and edge or a recommended bet. Given the lineup situations, though, we don't see many runs being scored in this one as we have two struggling offenses with future hall of famers on the mound opposing each other. Each team also is missing its best offensive player. The under is sharp, and while we'd prefer less juice, you can still get it at -120 at most books.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-120 at multiple books)
Rangers-Angels over 9 (-115) MIRACLE PUSH THANKS SHOHEI!
Texas starter Andrew Heaney has posted a 6.75 ERA in his last two outings, surrendering 10 hits in 8 innings to go along with 6 earned runs and 6 walks. He also has pitched to the over in six of seven home starts while compiling a 5.67 ERA in those outings. Reid Detmers has between a 4.79 and 4.88 ERA no matter where or when he pitches. These are two potent offenses, with the Angels having gone over in their last three games and 6 of their last 10. Texas has gone over in its last five and eight of its last 10. The two teams have combined to average 5.85 runs in their last 10 contests. And to top if off the bullpens are pretty gassed with both closers likely unavailable. The over looks good here.
Over 9 (-115 at Caesars)
Dog of the Day:
Angels +120 at Rangers LOSS FML
See the write-up above about Andrew Heaney's pitching woes. We see a lot of runs scored early and the Angels holding a bullpen advantage in terms of depth and rest.
Bet: Angels +120 at DraftKings
The SPM Edge
These are games where our system shows an edge to one team or another, but not enough for us to bet. Play at your own risk. We are not betting these games, but they are very close to being plays and could become bets as more data is available:
Reds-Royals under 9.5 (-115) LOSS
Daily Summary 6/13
Remember that most of our bets (unless noted) are flat 1-unit bets. We don't try to hit a home run or get it back all on one swing. The goal is to grind out a profit day to day and week to week and to build our winnings over time.
Recommended Bets:
Today: 1-2-1 (33.3%) -1.17
Overall since June 9: 16-14-1 (53.3%) +0.10 units
Dog of the Day:
0-2 (0.0%)
Overall since June 9: 1-3 (25%) -1.96 units
SPM Edge:
Today: 0-1-1 (0.0%) -1.00 units
Overall since June 9: 7-8-1 (46.7%) -2.57 units
Stanley Cup Finals Bets:
Overall: 7-3 (70%)