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After a VERY successful March Madness and start to the MLB season followed by some hot-and-cold MLB rollercoaster rides and a 5-1 Stanley Cup Finals straight-bet run it, seems like the right time to get back into providing some content for those who care.
We will attempt to do this as often as possible during the rest of the MLB Season. It will updated throughout the day. We are in the process of redesigning our website and rebranding a bit so that we can provide you with more information and begin to turn this into a permanent and consistent platform, so bear with us. The rest of this site will not be updated during this process, so all of our content and results will be provided and tracked here.
last update 6:46 p.m. June 9
Early MLB Value Bets
Diamondbacks -144 at Tigers
This line has started moving toward Arizona from the opening -142 number. Some favor Tigers starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen in a starting-pitching matchup pits him against Arizona's Merrill Kelly. While Lorenzen has been good overall with a 3.21 overall ERA and a 2.66 ERA with a 1.099 WHIP at home, it's hard to bet against a top-10 offense that also has a very good starting pitcher and is facing a club that is averaging fewer than 2.5 runs scored in recent weeks. Oh, and for what it's worth, Kelly has a 2.80 ERA and 1.075 overall WHIP, which drops to 1.63 and 1.048 on the road. And he's posted a 2.93 ERA and a .962 WHIP in his last 10 outings. Arizona also is rested, while the Tigers burned through their bullpen in a late-game loss to the Phillies on the road yesterday. The D'Backs did not play Thursday. If you bet this early we believe you will get good closing-line value.
Bet: D'Backs -144 on FanDuel WIN!
Red Sox - Yankees over 8 (-110 at many books)
The line moved to the over early (that has been a winning indicator 56 percent of the time in nearly 600 games since April 4), and although Gerrit Cole has been solid is his recent starts, his 3.28 ERA of late is substantially above his overall 2.82 mark. Meanwhile, Garrett Whitlock is 5.61 overall, 7.07 on the road and 6.34 recently. While the Yankees are without Aaron Judge and the Red Sox seem to be a mismanaged mess at the moment, New York used almost every member of its very strong bullpen Friday. The teams have gone over 8 a combined 12 of their past 20 games. There are no sure things in sports gambling, but 60-percent indicators across the board make for a good bet.
Bet: Over 8 LOSS
Bets Placed
Yankees -152 vs. Red Sox - first five innings at FanDuel
Watching this one carefully, because the early line move was to the Yankees, and early line moves have been toward the winner 57.5 percent of the time over nearly 600 games since April 4. Since then, however, the line has move toward Boston. To bet the Yankees over the full game we would like to see the line end up moving in their favor from where it opened (-164) to where it closes. However, this is a decided starting-pitching mismatch with Gerrit Cole facing Gerrit Whitlock, and while we normally wouldn't worry about the Yanks' top-ranked bullpen, they pretty much all pitched yesterday while Boston's pen is mostly rested. The early line move shows confidence in Cole, who has been a tad off his game lately but still performing infinitely better than Whitlock. We are leaning toward the Yankees in the first five. Monitoring the line as of 1 p.m.
Bet: Yankees first five -152 at FanDuel LOSS
Pirates -115 vs. Mets
Despite heavy betting on the Mets all day, this line flipped with the Pirates starting at +102 and getting to over -120 at some books. New York also has a drained bullpen and is drained in general after a 13-10 late-night loss to the Braves last night that didn't allow them to get to Pittsburgh until 4:30 a.m. Pittsburgh's bullpen is better to begin with, and Rich Hill has found himself lately, compiling a 3.51 ERA in recent outings, while New York's Tylor Megill has improved but is still at 4.41 recently, over 5.00 for the season and 6.08 on the road.
Bet: Pirates -115 at Caesars WIN!
Dog of the Day
Rangers +148 at Rays at BetRivers
All line movement has been toward Texas, and it has gotten to +140 in some spots, so we decided to jump on this value dog before the line gets away from us. The Rays have won five straight games, while the Rangers' high-scoring offense has helped them win five of six. They are coming off a 1-0 loss against the Cardinals, so it seems unlikely their offense would be held in check like that again, and Texas was resting yesterday while Tampa Bay was beating the Twins, 4-2. While neither bullpen is stellar, the Rays' pen has been pretty bad lately, and the Rangers are more rested coming off an off day. People will look at the starting pitching matchup of Tyler Glasnow vs. Andrew Heaney and assume that to be a mismatch in favor of Tampa Bay, but a closer look shows that is not the case. Glasnow brings name recognition to the matchup, but he's just coming back off the injured list and has been up and down so far with a 2.77 overall ERA, but a 6.23 number at home. Meanwhile, Heaney has posted a 1.82 ERA on the road and a 4.03 mark in his last 10 appearances. The Texas rested and high-powered lineup at a +148 price tag in a closer-than-advertised starting pitching matchup and against a tired and struggling Rays bullpen is appealing.
Bet: Rangers +148 at BetRivers LOSS
Crossover Money Line Parlay
Bet: Orioles/Nuggets money line parlay at +151 WIN!
The SPM Edge
These are games where our system shows and edge to one team or another, but not enough for us to bet. Play at your own risk. We are not betting these games: Mets - Pirates over 9 WIN!
Blue Jays - Twins under 8.5 WIN!
Guardians -115 vs. Astros WIN!
Marlins +105 at White Sox LOSS
Daily Summary 6/9
Remember that all of our bets are flat 1-unit bets. We don't try to hit a home run or get it back all on one swing. The goal is to grind out a profit day to day and week to week and to build our winnings over time.
Recommended Bets:
3-3 (50%) +0.55 units
Dog of the Day:
0-1
SPM Edge:
3-1 (75%) +2.02 units