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Scotty P – SPM Staff
We are always tweaking and analyzing data in hopes of coming up with unique analytical numbers that can help us better predict future performance and give us an edge vs. the sports books and their diabolical point spreads.
With that in mind, we have created a formula to dissect which NFL teams have performed above expectations on a weekly basis. We use a formula that includes strength of schedule as determined by our weekly power ratings, expected outcomes and actual results compared to those expectations.
Thus, in theory teams that play well against tougher schedules, like the Bills, will benefit from that while weaker teams that are covering point spreads more often and playing more competitive games than expected also should benefit.
The one seeming outlier on this list is the Giants, who clearly have outperformed their preseason expectations, but this simply may be a product of their having played close games against a weak schedule that has included the Bears, Panthers and Titans and a poor showing vs. the Cowboys. The Packers win seems like it should have helped their rating more than it did, though.
And our top-rated team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, certainly has surpassed its preseason expectations to date, but their numbers may be skewed by blowout victories against an overrated Colts team and an injured Chargers squad. Still, The Jags have played themselves into the division-title mix in the AFC South, and none of us would have expected that heading into the season.
Here is our first Expected Performance Rating, with the teams at the top having exceeded expectations, teams in the middle having performed about as expected and the teams at the bottom having underachieved:
1) Jaguars
2) Bills
3) Falcons
4) Eagles
5) Cowboys
6) Texans
7) Chiefs
8) Dolphins
9) Cardinals
10) Bears
11) Vikings
12) Ravens
13) Lions
14) Bucs
15) Seahawks
16) Raiders
17) Jets
18) Panthers
19) Patriots
20) Giants
21) 49ers
22) Titans
23) Browns
24) Steelers
25) Bengals
26) Packers
27) Commanders
28) Chargers
29) Saints
30) Broncos
31) Rams
32) Colts