Here is a quick look at the games we are on, are close to being on and might be on for Saturday, June 17:
We currently are working our way through Saturday's slate. This will be updated throughout the day.
Latest update 7:03 p.m.
Recommended Bets
Yankees-Red Sox UNDER 9 PPD (NOT A LOSS!)
Two hot pitchers against two lineups, last night's explosion aside, that have been struggling to score runs. The teams combined to plate 20 last night, with the game going over in the third inning, and that certainly is not expected again tonight considering that the Yankees have gone under nine runs in seven of their last 10 games while Boston has gone under nine five times and pushed twice in that same span. The wind will be blowing in tonight at Fenway as well. The line has moved toward the under throughout the day and is juiced to -120 at most books as we post this. In addition, New York starter Clarke Schmidt has pitched to the under in seven of his last 10 outings, posting a 3.59 ERA in that span and lowering his ERA from 6.00 to 4.70. He has allowed 1, 3, 0, 1 and 2 runs in his last five outings, averaging 5.5 innings in those appearances. Boston's Brayan Bello is pitched to the under in six of his last 10 starts, allowing 2, 3, 1, 2, 1 and 2 runs in his last six starts while averaging 5.83 innings pitch. During that stretch his ERA has plummeted from 5.01 to 3.78.
Bet: Yankees - Red Sox UNDER 9 (-115 at MGM)
Value Play
Padres +100 vs. Rays WIN!
This has been a complete line flip, with the Rays opening as a -115 favorite and the Padres now being listed as a favorite at pretty much every Vegas book -- and as high as -115 at some. That despite a ton of money, as usual, coming in on the Rays, indicating sharp money likely being bet on San Diego. The starting-pitching matchup on the surface seems to favor Tampa's Zach Eflin, who has had a strong year with a 3.28 ERA and a WHIP below 1.0. He faces former Ray Blake Snell, who has really picked it up of late, posting a 3.05 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in his last 10 outings. Eflin has struggled to a 5.53 ERA on the road, however, and while Snell's 4.61 home ERA isn't great, it's nearly a run better than his opponent. San Diego has really picked up offensively of late, too, now that their murderer's row of Soto, Tatis and Machado is healthy. Their bullpen is one of the best in the league, while Tampa's has improved with the return of Pete Fairbanks, but still has struggled in spite of the team's sparkling record.
Dodgers -115 vs. Giants (1st 5 result) LOSSOLOLOL
Watching the Dodgers' bullpen struggle made this bet the only way to go. As poor as LA's bullpen has been, starter Bobby Miller has burst on the scene by posting a 0.78 ERA overall and a 0.75 ERA at home to go along with a WHIP below 1.00. The line has moved toward the Dodgers all day, pushing all the way up to -170, with the first-five money line also at -170. That number certainly is too high for a full-game bet given the Dodgers' bullpen woes, so the value is with betting on them to get out to a lead after five. Giants' starter Alex Cobb does have a 3.00 road ERA this year, but that number has ballooned to 6.69 in his last 10 outings overall, and his WHIP is still 1.83 away from home -- even with that solid road ERA. That means he's playing with fire and making a living getting out of jams, which is going to regress and likely will do so against a potent LA offense that is averaging 5.5 runs over the last 10 contests. Cobb's full-season whip is 1.6 to go along with his 4.81 ERA. If we lose this one we tip our cap to someone, not sure who.
Bet: Dodgers -115 (1st 5 result at BetRivers)
College World Series Recommended Bet
Stanford - Wake Forest OVER 11.5 LOSS
This total just moved from 11 to 11.5, which provided an indication that Quinn Matthews may not be starting for Stanford, and that was confirmed. Joey Dixon and his 4.86 ERA will be facing one of the top offensive lineups in the country. With Matthews, who threw 156 pitches in a dominant performance vs. Texas last week, facing ACC Pitcher of the Year and first-team All-American Rhett Lowder (1.92 ERA), we were on the under even at 11. Watching that number start heading north, with juice as high as 11.5 -125 as we post this, we are now on the over. Strange things happen to aces in Omaha, and the powerful Wake Forest offense put up 22 runs against Alabama just last week after unloading on a good Maryland team for double digits the week before.
Bet: Over 11.5 (-110 at MGM)
The SPM Edge
These are games where our system shows an edge to one team or another, but not enough for us to bet. Play at your own risk. We are not betting these games, but they are very close to being plays and could become bets as more data is available:
Tigers - Twins over 9 LOSS
We would bet this a 8.5, so keep an eye on it. If we had a larger sample size we would be on t
he over at 9, too, but it's hard when one of the pitchers has only had one appearance. The numbers in this game for the starting pitchers are the worst combined numbers we've seen in a long time - by a lot. But the sample size concerns us. Mixing in the team starting ERA for the Twins might give us a better idea, but it's not concrete. Looking at home/away/last 10 splits for the two starting pitchers are number comes out to 17.73. But when we mix in the team ERA for Minnesota it's a slightly more palatable 14.76. When that number is thrown into our calculations we go from 11.59 to 10.5. Obviously that's still well above 9, but the sample size is still a concern. Uncertainly leads to a no-bet situation. Still monitoring this one. Line opened at 8.5 and moved to 9, so we are more confident in the over at 8.5.
Orioles +118 vs. Cubs & OVER LOSS/LOSS
The over was a winner yesterday, but it's not a slam dunk today with the wind blowing in again (like Friday) and what we feel may be a slightly undervalued Kyle Gibson. The total opened at 7.5 and there is a great bet split on this one, with 98 percent of the money and 78 percent of the bets on the over at 8 and the total juiced to -115 in many spots. Over 8 definitely is a decent play, but with two very solid starters, the wind blowing in and two rested bullpens - including Baltimore's top-three-rated pen - it's not a recommended bet at this point. We also are looking closely at betting on the Orioles, the better team, as a dog in this one. Once again, we feel that Gibson is undervalued and Baltimore's bullpen is far superior to Chicago's. Gibson is the kind of pitcher who keeps games close and allows the Orioles' potent offense and bullpen to seal the deal. That is a very likely formula today. Baltimore is the better team and they are an underdog. The American League East has better than a .600 winning percentage against non-division foes this year. A non-divisional dog also is often is a sound play, too. Stay tuned on this one. Watching late line movement.
Took the Orioles in-game at +145 for 2/3 unit and +217 for 1/3 unit in the top of the first (had to use expiring 50% profit boost).
Rays - Padres UNDER 8.5 WIN!
Everything points to an under in this matchup of Eflin and Snell except that Eflin's road ERA is 5.53 while Snell's home ERA is 4.61. Otherwise, both have been solid, pitching to full-season ERA's below 4.00, and Snell has been even better in his last 10 appearances, compiling a 3.05 ERA. We will continue to monitor this one.
Overall Summary to Date
Recommended Bets:
June 17: 1-2 (33.3%) -1.00 units
Overall since June 9: 19-18-1 (51.4%) -1.25 units
Dog of the Day:
June 17: N/A
Overall since June 9: 2-3 (25%) -0.76 units
SPM Edge:
June 17: 1-3 (25%)
Overall since June 9: 8-11-2 (42.1%) -4.66 units