It's been a week of treading water, with three blowout losses -- two on totals and one on a side -- and a lot of good wins to almost make up for those.
Some things have changed recently with our systems as we continue to track line movement and its relationship to side winners and totals. Early line movement had been a great indicator all year for both sides and totals, but that has taken a big hit lately with full line movement from open to close being the strongest indicator and late movement gaining strength, too.
We are always adjusting and tweaking, and the fact that we are treading water and not getting killed as pretty drastic changes occur is a good sign. We did lose two unders that went over by the third inning in the past week, and Saturday we had the Dodgers first-five result at -115. It was 0-0 entering the fifth, with the Giants scoring five in that inning and finishing with a 15-0 victory. It's better to lose that way than to suffer an excruciating bad beat in our opinion.
Go big or go home!
As usual, today's information will be updated throughout the day.
Most recent update 12:48 p.m.
Recommended Bets
Orioles -108 at Cubs
Sometimes you see a number and study a game and you just have to go with the better team, better starter, better bullpen, etc. That likely would have been the case with the Orioles today up to like -150. The fact that they've lost two straight to an inferior team and are undervalued today only helps their cause. Baltimore has made a living winning series this year, so for them to drop three straight to an inferior opponent seems unlikely. There are no locks, however, and they certainly can lose. That's baseball. This matchup pits Dean Kremer, who has been decent this year with a 4.74 overall ERA and a 4.26 ERA in his last 10 appearances, against Jameson Taillon, who has been awful (6.70 overall, 7.25 at home, 6.70 last 10). The Orioles' bullpen is pretty much rested and vastly superior to the Cubs' pen. The line opened at -110 and had made a full move to as high as -125 in Baltimore's direction all day at some books. It has come back toward Baltimore in a lot of spots at the very last minute, but Baltimore still is the bet. If we lose we tip our cap. Good dollars vs. bets split, too, in the Orioles' favor, indicating sharp money coming in on them most of the day. Late movement hasn't been a strong enough recent indicator to change our bet here.
Bet: Orioles -108 at Fanduel
Yankees -110 at Red Sox (GAME 1)
It looks as though Boston will be going with a bullpen game in this one against a much-improved Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt has pitched to the under in seven of his last 10 outings, posting a 3.59 ERA in that span and lowering his ERA from 6.00 to 4.70. He has allowed 1, 3, 0, 1 and 2 runs in his last five starts, averaging 5.5 innings in those appearances. Kaleb Ort will be Boston's opener in this one, and the Red Sox have pitched to a bullpen ERA of 3.93 thus far. Ort's ERA is well over 5.00 for the year and 6.00 for his career. Meanwhile, assuming that Schmidt can at least keep the game even through five or six innings, the Yankees have the stop bullpen in the league statistically. Both pens rested yesterday, so we'll take the hot start and league's top bullpen over a group that has been average at best this year. The line has moved toward New York at most books.
Yankees -110 at PointsBet
White Sox - Mariners OVER 7.5 (-110)
Two starting pitchers with June ERAs over 8.00, with one of them having a 6.75 full-season ERA, and one of the worst bullpens in the league being gassed and going against a pretty good pen that is a little tired, too, seems to be the right equation for an over here.
Bet: Over 7.5 -110 at Caesars
The SPM Edge
These are games where our system shows an edge to one team or another, but not enough for us to bet. Play at your own risk. We are not betting these games, but they are very close to being plays and could become bets as more data is available:
Giants +100 (even) vs. Dodgers
Phillies vs. A's over 7.5 (-105)
Mariners -150 vs. White Sox