Apologies for yesterday. No time for breakdowns, but all picks were posted on Twitter at @SportsPickMagic.
Hoping to get some more info out for today. Some matchups that caught our eye early and that we have been tracking are below. We have added bets we recommend throughout the day.
Braves -154 at Phillies (NO BET) - OVER 8.5 under consideration
Braves are red hot; Strider vs. Suarez appears to be good value on the surface.
Updated 3:49 p.m. - Upon further review, Strider has really struggled (compared to his usual performance, that is) since mid-May and Suarez has been on the upswing of late, just like his team has. Both teams are strong offensively, and the Phillies have been especially strong lately. They also both have won six straight, so something has to give here. No bet on the side, but OVER 8. 5 is being considered. Suarez strangely has a 6.92 ERA at home this season. Atlanta has gone over 8.5 in its last seven games, while the Phillies have done so in six of their last 10.
Tigers -146 at Royals (NO BET)
Severe line drop toward the Royals, but hard not to fade them now and at -146 this enters value-bet territory.
Marlins -112 vs. Blue Jays & UNDER 8.5
Perez has been great and Kikuchi appears due for regression given advanced numbers. Under appears to be in play if it sticks at 8.5.
Updated 4:22 p.m. - The Marlins are now a RECOMMENDED BET. Stud rookie pitcher whose recent era of under 1.00 looks even better than his overall ERA of 1.80. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has a .87 ERA on the road and a 4.53 mark in his last 10 appearances. He has better this year, but consistency is not his forte. The total has dropped to 8, so NO BET there. We like the full line move to the Marlins, too. Rested vs. gassed bullpen in Miami's favor, too.
Recommended Bet: Marlins -117 at BetRivers LOSS
Cubs -126 at Pirates & UNDER 8
Teams going opposite directions and we like Stroman at this number at first glance. Stro always goes low, too, so we will check the under here.
Updated 4:58 p.m. - Still tracking line movement. This seems to be a big mismatch in the starting-pitching category and Chicago's top relievers are rested and supported by an offense that has been averaging more than 6 runs per game in the last 10, while the Bucs have averaged just 3.4 in that same span. Stroman continues to be unfairly undervalued. No bet on the total.
Recommended Bet: Cubs -127 at BetRivers WIN!
Nationals +154 vs. Cardinals (NO BET)
Big line move toward the scrappy Nats. The Cards are anything but scrappy and were lucky to win yesterday. Possible Dog of the Day here as Gore seems undervalued and Montgomery appears to be overvalued.
Mariners +116 at Yankees & OVER 7
Marquee pitching matchup of the day with Kirby taking on Cole. Cole has been his usual great self most of the year, but has slipped a bit lately. The Yankees pen has been at the top of the league in ERA all season, but also has regressed recently while Seattle remains solid. New York's lineup is not good at the moment. Kirby has out-performed Cole in the last 10 outings. Candidate for Dog of the Day and over the total if it stays at 7.
Updated 6:47 p.m. - The line has moved the Mariners' way since the original post, and we are on Seattle still as our Dog of the Day despite the fact that they have flipped to -110 at a few books. We are grabbing the at -104 at FanDuel. The fact is that George Kirby has been better than Gerrit Cole recently and over the last 7-10 days, Seattle's bullpen has been among the league leaders while New York's has regressed. The Yankees have struggled most with a lead between innings 7 and 9. New York still misses the big bat of Aaron Judge and has several pedestrian names in the lineup. Josh Donaldson's return has helped, but will he remain consistent offensively when that hasn't been the case over large sample sizes in recent years? Give us the M's; no bet on the total.
Dog of the Day Recommended Bet:
Mariners -104 at FanDuel LOSS
A's at Guardians UNDER 9.5 (SPM Edge; close but NO BET)
Two offensively challenged teams. Civale has been good for Cleveland. If one team scores and the other doesn't, that's a good under formula.
Red Sox vs. Twins
Minnesota is officially on the DO NOT BET list.
Diamondbacks +110 at Brewers (SPM Edge; close but NO BET)
D'Backs are a Dog of the Day candidate by default here. Line seems fishy, though. Arizona smacked Corbin Burnes yesterday, but they are a Dog vs. Rea when they have the much better offense? We'll see. Stay tuned!
Rangers -134 at White Sox & UNDER 8.5
It's hard to bet against Nathan Eovaldi right now against a pretty bad team at this number -- even if Dylan Cease has been solid for Chicago. The Texas bullpen played with fire last night, but came through. LeClerc will be ready and rested tonight, but the pen is the only thing that might hold us back here. The Texas offense has slowed a bit lately, and with these two pitchers 8.5 seems like a high number again after the teams went under last night.
Updated 4:04 p.m. - THIS IS NOW A RECOMMENDED BET. We got it earlier at -130 and it has been steadily moving toward the Rangers and is pretty much -140 or higher everywhere. We thought this would happen and couldn't pass up Eovaldi a that price. If we lose, we lose. If he dies, he dies.
Recommended Bet: Rangers -130 LOSE
Astros -146 vs. Mets
Astros laid an egg last night, and even though he's facing Verlander, -146 always seems like a value play on Framber Valdez.
Updated 5:14 p.m. - Verlander is overvalued here, and the Astros are undervalued in the middle of a five-game skid. We will buy low on Houston. Verlander may win, but it's hard to turn down the game's most consistent ace at -134 against a team that has underachieved all year. Houston is the better team all around, and good teams don't lose six straight games very often, especially with their ace on the hill. Verlander, contrary to popular belief, hasn't really been much better lately, either, posting a 4.58 ERA in his last 10 outings. He also has a 5.85 road ERA this year, but there's no doubt he will be fired up returning to Houston. The struggling Astros will be fired up, too, and we will take the superior team happily at a deflated -134 number.
Recommended Bet: Astros -134 at FanDuel WIN!
Padres -116 at Giants (SPM Edge; close but no bet)
The Giants are red hot, but good bullpens tend to have a way of halting winning streaks against lesser pens. This line has moved toward San Diego after an initial dip. We'll keep watching. Lugo coming off the IL may present too many question marks for this bet.
Dodgers -148 vs. Angels WIN!
The Dodgers have not been great lately, but this is a value bet on Kershaw vs. Detmers. This line seems likely to soar in the other direction by game time. If you want value, take the Dodgers early. Their bullpen is egregiously bad, however.
Updated 4:04 p.m. - THIS IS NOW A RECOMMENDED BET. We got it earlier at -130 and it has been heading north since then. Too good of a value for this pitching matchup. Tip our caps if we lose.
Recommended Bet: Dodgers -130
Overall Summary to Date:
Recommended Bets
Daily results: 3-3 (50%) -0.47 units
Overall since June 9: 25-24-1 (51%) -2.01 units
Dog of the Day
0-1
Overall since June 9: 2-4 (33.3%) -0.88 units
The SPM Edge
1-2 (33.3%)
Overall since June 9: 12-14-2 (46.2%) -3.06 units