By Scotty P – SPM Staff
Finally, I'm back home and trying to get back into the rhythm of the daily routine. Here are some selections for the early games and others we are tracking that will be updated throughout the day.
Highest Probability MLB Winners – August 7, 2021
These are our highest-probability winners in MLB for today based on many factors, including initial implied probability that considers opening and projected lines, sharp line movement, probabilities provided by various analytical and statistical models and other factors such as weather, injuries, matchups, etc. Early games will posted first, and this will be updated throughout the day.
Rockies -163 vs. Marlins - WIN Rockies 7-4
This line had a strong sharp move from -150 to -159 and held steady for a bit despite a good amount sharp and public money on the Rockies. The recent move to -163, with it not looking to slow down anytime soon, puts this one over the top for us. Colorado is great at home at 36-21, while Miami is 20-36 on the road and 12-22 vs. lefties. The Rockies ripped the Marlins last night and have a solid pitcher in Austin Gomber facing newly acquired Jesus Luzardo and his 6.70 ERA. We have Colorado at a 68.45 win probability, which exceeds its initial implied win probability as a favorite by more than 3 percent. The various analytical models have the Rockies at between a 54 and 61 percent win probability. Colorado all the way here.
Astros -247 vs. Twins - use in money line parlay (we took CWS in game) - WIN Astros 4-0, Brewers 4-0
The Twins have disappointed all year and appear to be tanking at this point. Michael Pineda is now their most dependable starter since the deadline deal to move their ace to Toronto, but his 3.89 ERA and 1.2 WHIP aren't earth shattering. Luis Garcia's numbers are better across the board and he's supported by one of the top offenses in baseball. We used this one in a money line parlay with the Brewers, who were up 2-0 in game, to get the odds down to -132. The Brewers won 4-0 and we have the Astros at a 65.3 percent win probability.
Parlay suggestions:
Braves 81.8% win probability
Dodgers 79.3% win probability
Rays 71.4% win probability
Although these have very high win probabilities, the odds based on recent form, pitching matchups, etc. prohibit us recommending them as top picks. The Braves pitching matchup seems best thanks to Charlie Morton's strong numbers to date, but Josiah Gray is a highly regarded prospect who is a bit of an unknown. Urias has been great for the Dodgers -- and they win when he starts a very high percentage of the time -- but he usually is undervalued and well safer than -405, which is much higher than anything we've seen this year. This is an incredibly large line movement. Very unusual, and he has not been an overwhelming favorite all year. The Rays are 9-1 vs. the Orioles, but Baltimore has played well since the All-Star break and is undervalued in this spot. We rarely recommend run-line selections because that knocks our probabilities below our usual standards most times if you aren't getting plus money. Parlays are the way to go with these picks tonight. We would parlay one with the Dodgers and two together. Since we already paired the White Sox in-game with the Astros our other pick would be:
Braves & Rays - money line parlay at -106 - LOSS
Nats 3, Braves 2
Rays 12, Orioles 3 (9th inning)
That Dodgers number is just too scary. The last time we saw a number like that they Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Detroit Red Wings.
Best Bets: 2-1 (+0.37 units)
Best of the Rest
Phillies -117 vs. Mets - WIN Phillies 5-3
Nice 12-cent line move toward the red-hot Phils here vs. the reeling Met despite a pitching matchup that has up-and-coming Tylor Megill facing converted Phillies short-reliver Ranger Suarez; both guys have great numbers. There was a line flip here, with the Phils opening up as dogs and moving to become slight favorites. Despite being underdogs and the models that we analyze projecting the Mets at a 50.8-percent win probability, we have Philadelphia at a 51.92 win probability. They are projected to win with as high as a 53-percent win probability in three of six models we analyzed. These teams are heading in opposite directions, and the Phillies are pounding the baseball. Ride them until they prove unworthy.
Athletics -253 vs. Rangers - WIN Athletics 12-3
This one would have been a best bet if not for the high number and if the line movement, with Oakland getting hammered by wise guys and average joes alike, had been a little stronger than 8 cents in the Athletics’ favor. Cole Irvin has been very solid on the hill for Oakland this year and provides a nice mismatch for his club in this one, taking his 3.50 ERA and 1.118 WHIP to the field against Drew Anderson, who is just 0-1, 6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP. Texas seems to be waving the white flag, and Oakland is trying to hunt down a playoff berth. We have the A’s at a 66.2 percent win probability, a full percentage point above the opening implied probability, and all six of the models we studied have Oakland’s probability at between 64.8 and 69 percent. This barely misses our best-bet criteria, but we think you can bet confidently on Oakland. Only the high number of -253 gives us pause.
White Sox at Cubs Under 9 -110 - Win White Sox 4-0
This one is very sharp to the under at a total of 9, with the number dropping to 8.5 at one point despite a vast majority of bets and money on the other side. In addition, Sox starter Carlos Rodon is 5-12-1 to the over this year overall with a 2.49 ERA and a .965 WHIP. He’s also 2-7-1 to the over on the road and 3-6-1 in his last 10. Adbert Alzolay has been right around 50/50 to the over in all scenarios thus far. Three of the four metrics we look at have this game coming in at under 9. Lots of supporting layers to this play.
Indians -150 vs. Tigers - LOSS Tigers 2-1
A big line move toward Cleveland of 25 cents and a large difference in tickets vs. money on the Tribe indicates sharp influence. Indians with a 62.37 percent win probability in this matchup of struggling pitchers.
Best of the Rest: 3-1 (+1.10 units)
Dog of the Day
Royals +135 at Cardinals - LOSS Cardinals 5-2
Early line move to the Cardinals took this line from -170 to -179 and then late sharp movement brought it all the way down to -155. It got to -151 at one point before there was some buy back. We have the Royals at a 47.2 percent win probability after a big sharp line movement in their favor, and that's our best underdog bet of the day.
Dog of the Day: 0-1 (-1 unit)
Overall for August 7:
5-3 (+0.47 units)
Overall Record Since July 1:
109-87-2 (55.6%)
Overall Record Since July 31:
22-13-1 (62.9%, +4.3 units)
Overall Record Since August 1:
14-8-1 (63.6%, +3.97 units)
Best Bets Since August 1:
5-3 (62.5%)
Best of the Rest Since August 1:
7-2-1 (77.8%)
Dogs of the Day Overall:
2-3 (40%, -0.67 units)