Not a bad start in our return to content creation yesterday.
Keep in mind that we always recommend flat betting, which means that you bet the same amount for every bet no matter how much you are up or down or what odds you are getting. You can choose a certain percentage of your bankroll that you want to bet no matter how much you have in your account, or you can bet a set number like $50 or $100 per bet - or even $5 if you want to try this out and just have fun with it - every time you place a wager.
We believe there are no "locks of the year" or "whale plays" or "10-star bangers." People who chase a bigger profit or try to dig themselves out of large financial holes by placing larger wagers are prime candidates to create perilous financial situations form which they simply cannot recover. This can lead to a vicious cycle of trying to dig out in which more and more money is bet over time and losses continue to mount.
Stay within your means. Never bet more money than you are comfortable wagering or place a number of bets that either you aren't comfortable covering or can't cover. If you're willing to grind it out over the long term and accept smaller profits that can build up over time, you can be successful and add to your enjoyment of watching sports while making a little pizza or beer money.
Who knows? With the right approach you might make enough money to supplement your income and take a nicer vacation than you might normally be able to afford or treat yourself or your family to something special. And as you grow as a bettor and develop your own systems and approaches, you might make more than that. Anything is possible, but not if you go 100 mph out of gate in the wrong direction.
We are here to help, and if you outgrow us and become so successful that you don't need us anymore, then we have been successful. Just be sure to share your secrets with us when you become a pro!
Tracking Line Movement
One of the criteria we use when determining which bets we like is line movement.
In general, lines move when either respected or professional bettors place large wagers or the respected money bet by many "sharps" starts to create substantial liability for the books on one side over the other. It is possible that an overwhelming amount of "public" money or money bet by the average bettor instead of the pros can move a line, too, but more often than not that money also includes respected money. If a large percentage of bets and a large percentage of money are on one side - and the line moves in that direction - you can assume that is a combination of "pro and joe" money. That simply means that the general public and the "sharps" are both betting on the same side.
When you see a high percentage of bets on one side and the line moves in the opposite direction, you can assume that the respected money is on the side that the line is moving toward. This also can be true when you see a low percentage of bets on one side and a higher percentage of dollars bet on the other side with the line moving toward the money instead of the higher number of bets.
Why is this important?
It's important because it always make sense to be on the same side as the people who make a living betting on sports over the general public, which tends to lose more than it wins. That said, a full-time professional bettor who is betting on point spreads with -110 juice is happy to win 55 percent of the time or more. With -110 juice you need to win 53 percent of the time just to be profitable. Anyone who tells you that they win 70 percent of the time for more than a few weeks is probably lying. Be sure to your homework before you take anyone's word for something or give anyone your money. Scam artists are everywhere, and over the years many have made a great living off of unsuspecting, naive gamblers instead of actually by winning bets.
Line movement toward one side or another - when it can be chalked up to respected money - is something we consider whenever recommending bets. But, it's not the only thing we consider, but you certainly can take that edge and combine it with other criteria to create even more of an advantage.
In baseball, for example, we will look at the line movement, a starting pitching advantage, a bullpen advantage, bullpen rest, team rest, recent performance, advanced statistics, injuries and other factors. When all of these boxes can be checked and we feel like there is a substantial edge, that is when we recommend a bet.
Below is a look at line movement compared with game results for MLB since April 4 and for the NHL during the playoffs as well as for the NBA against the spread during the playoffs. We also have studied totals, and that information is included.
But first, here is an explanation of the categories:
Early Line Movement - This is immediate line movement after an opening line is posted or overnight line movement. Often when a line moves within a few minutes or hours of it being released or overnight in the wee hours of the morning, that is an indication that a respected bettor or respected bettors have placed wagers on one side, causing the line to move. A quick initial move often means that respected bettors see an edge over the line that was posted and want to jump on that number before it moves. We also assume that the general public isn't betting enough money at 3 a.m. to move a line because they like South Dakota to beat North Dakota in a college hoops game.
Late Line Movement - This can be defined in many ways, but for our purposes, we consider the final movement before a line closes to be late movement if it comes within four hours of game time. Sometimes sharp bettors will acquire some last-minute, inside information about injuries, illnesses or something else pertinent that they think gives them an edge over the currently posted number. They will bet accordingly, and the line will move.
Full Line Movement - This is the complete line move from open to close. So if the Nuggets are favored by -3.5 when a line opens and by -4.5 when the ball tips, that is considered full line movement in their direction.
Remember, that a line moves toward a favorite when the number besides the minus (-) sign goes up from 0 to -1 to -2 to -2.5 to -3, etc. It moves toward an underdog when the number next to the plus (+) sign goes down - from +5 to +4 to +3.5 to +1, etc. A line flip means that one team goes from being an underdog to the favorite or vice versa. For example, if the Nuggets open as a +1.5 dog, but at some point they go from being a dog to a -0.5 or -1 favorite, that is a line flip.
MLB Line Movement Since April 4
This shows how often a line moves toward the winning team or total.
Early MLB Line Movement - Money Line
Overall: 334-223 (57.9%)
Recent Trends: 19-6 (76%), 37-18 (67.3%), 58-32 (64.4%)
Late MLB Line Movement - Money Line
Overall: 334-267 (55.6%)
Recent Trends: 19-13 (59.4%), 36-30 (54.5%), 56-51 (52.3%)
Full MLB Line Movement - Money Line
Overall: 326-254 (56.2%)
Recent Trends: 21-16 (56.8%), 45-29 (60.8%), 70-54 (56.5%)
Early MLB Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 349-283 (55.2%)
Recent Trends: 14-19 (42.4%), 30-32 (48.4%), 48-49 (49.5%)
Late MLB Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 260-246 (51.4%)
Recent Trends: 16-14 (53.3%), 30-27 52.6%), 50-53 (48.5%)
Full MLB Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 294-270 (52.1%)
Recent Trends: 22-14 (61.1%), 38-28 (57.6%), 41-39 (51.3%)
NBA Playoff Line Movement
This shows how often a line moves toward the COVERING team or winning total.
Early NBA Line Movement - ATS
Overall: 35-27 (56.4%)
Late NBA Line Movement - ATS
Overall: 30-20 (60%)
Full NBA Line Movement - ATS
Overall: 25-22 (53.2%)
Early NBA Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 26-28 (48.1%)
Late NBA Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 28-24 (53.8%)
Full NBA Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 24-23 (51.1%)
NHL Playoff Line Movement
This shows how often a line moves toward the winning team or total.
Early NHL Line Movement - Money Line
Overall: 27-20 (57.4%)
Late NHL Line Movement - Money Line
Overall: 28-24 (53.8%)
Full NHL Line Movement - Money Line
Overall: 22-23 (48.9%)
Early NHL Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 27-28 (49.1%)
Late NHL Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 24-27 (47.1%)
Full NHL Line Movement - Totals
Overall: 26-27 (49.1%)