Atlanta Falcons Photo
By SPM Scott
Welcome to what is known as overreaction week in the fantasy football world.
Many players and teams outperformed expectations in Week 1, creating a false sense of security for team managers who think they've figured it all out and are now going to roll to a league championship. Countless more players and teams badly under-performed, pushing their managers to the brink of panic.
Which big names turned in below-par efforts?
Ah, nobody important, just guys like Burrow, Jackson, Allen, Herbert, London, Higgins, Fields, Goedert, Hurts, etc. etc. etc.
And some of the pleasant surprises: Love, Flowers, Nacua, Allgeier, Bourne, Tua, Aiyuk, Ridley, Meyers and Atwell.
Of course, there also were the studs who performed like, well, studs: Tyreek, Ekeler, A. Jones, McCaffrey, Pollard and DIggs.
Then, bunched up in the middle, is everyone else - players who after one week aren't worth being concerned about if they are starting or worth picking up in place of a potential contributor if they are on waivers.
For fantasy football mangers, heading into Week 2 there is a very fine line between panic, complacency and patience.
With teams in eight different leagues and a bunch of players who fit into all the categories described above, it's easy for us to get a good sense of who is most likely to be on the waiver wire in most leagues and for us to create a target list of players who can help our teams and hopefully yours.
A little advice about Week 1 waivers, however, before we get started.
If your team had a horrendous first week, there's a very good chance it isn't nearly as bad as it performed. Likewise, if you completely blew it out of the water in Week 1, regression most likely is heading your way.
We've played in hundreds of leagues, dating back to the last century (that's the 1900s for you younger folks), and based on our experience, the teams we've owned that have started out really hot tend to come up short, while the ones that struggled a bit early and forced us to work hard to improve them often ended up being our best squads by January. Several of them even won championships.
The lesson to be learned is that no matter how good or bad you think your team is, it's important to scour the waiver wire each week in hopes of improving.
Slow starters shouldn't look to blow it up completely, though, because doing that often backfires as you end up handing players who end up being very productive to opposing teams. And quick-out-of the gate team managers should realize that someone in their league probably is going to blow it up in Week 1 and leave players exposed who can possibly help them win a championship.
That said, whether it's a serious injury to a starter, a player you thought could help you who was a healthy scratch or there is a player on the wire who simply is better than one currently on your roster, there definitely are reasons to drop and add players this week - and every week.
Figure out when your league's waivers begin and end each week and set aside some time to scour the wire and create your own target list. Every week turn this process into a routine and schedule it into your daily routine so that it doesn't slip your mind.
Falling asleep at the wheel for even one week and allowing a player who can help you win to be grabbed by a team above or below you in the standings can be the difference between making or missing the playoffs and winning or losing a championship.
This process can be even more important than the preseason draft, because no matter how well or poorly you drafted, the National Football League season is a war of attrition. Everyone is going to have to deal with injuries, suspensions and other drama on and off the field that will need to be addressed. The key is to find your way into the playoffs and make sure your team is at its absolute strongest during those final weeks of the NFL season.
Below find a list of players likely to be available on waivers this week who we will be considering:
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy - He won't be available in every league, but if he is there and you have any concerns at all about your starter or backup, by all means try to grab him. This guy appears to be the real deal.
Jordan Love - If you have a backup you don't trust - or maybe one playing behind a terrible line or with few weapons at his disposal - Love is definitely worth bringing on board. Don't spend a ton of money bidding on him, though.
Matthew Stafford - If he is able to play like he did without his top weapon in the lineup yesterday, the energized veteran playing in a QB-friendly system is a great insurance policy for bye weeks and injuries to your starter.
Kirk Cousins - He generally puts up numbers win or lose and has helped us win more than one championship in the past. A top backup who won't kill you if your starter goes down - and a guy you can play in a week when your starter has a really tough matchup - Cousins is a great safety net on most fantasy rosters.
Russell Wilson - A veteran presence who can score with his arms or legs, Russ played better yesterday, but will the numbers be there? Don't pull the trigger yet. Same goes for Derek Carr.
Running Backs
Tyler Allgeire - If he's available, he's better than someone on your team. Grab him. There are plenty of touches to go around on a team that will run it 35 times a game, and he's going to score TDs.
Kyren Williams - If you have J.K. Dobbins or a player who was a healthy scratch or who just didn't see the field Sunday, he's worth picking up based on his touchdowns and the performance of Cam Akers yesterday. That said, the Rams always seem to piece it together, and you'll have to figure out which weeks are going to be his and which aren't.
Justice Hill - He will either be the starter or 1B in Baltimore with Dobbins out. Like Williams, you'll have to figure out which weeks he will get the rock more than the Gus Bus, but if he's better than who you have on the bench, go for it.
Gus Edwards - See Justice Hill.
Kenneth Gainwell - He's available in a surprising number of leagues and is a better bench back or RB3 than a lot of rostered players right now.
Tyjae Spears - His snap count was surprisingly close to even with Derrick Henry's, and he's going to be the third-down and two-minute back for an offense and a QB that likely is going to dump the ball off quite a bit.
Zack Moss - If Deon Jackson can't hold onto the ball and Evan Hull isn't a back who physically can handle the grind of being a starter or every-down player, someone in Indy is going to have to carry the ball other than Anthony Richardson. A good insurance policy if you're short on depth.
Sean Tucker - Just keep an eye on this one in case Rachaad White doesn't pick it up a bit in Week 2.
Wide Receiver
Just remember that wide receiver is a boom-or-bust position. Sammy Watkins has lit it up during several Week 1 explosions only to disappear and end a season as the WR4 or WR5 in most lineups. There were some eye-opening performances that were unexpected yesterday, but some of those players may not be worth mortgaging your team's future to get. Again, though, if you lack WR depth or have players at WR, RB or even TE who are expendable, picking up one of these guys is the right move.
Romeo Doubs - His perceived injury status scared people off, so he's available in some leagues and should be a top waiver priority if he is. He 100 percent is better than someone on your current roster. It's always okay to give up a pretty good player for one you know is better.
Josh Reynolds - He seems to be available in most leagues and until Jameson Williams returns is a bona fide No. 2 receiver in what should be a prolific offense. He's a smart, veteran player with a high floor who should be dependable if you lack depth or have too many boom-or-bust players. He's a top target for us this week, and you shouldn't have to spend too much to get him.
Curtis Samuel - Like Reynolds, Samuel is a smart veteran who has a nice floor. He gets touches through the air and in the ground game and is a solid 10-point-per-game player unless he finds his way into the end zone. We drafted him on several teams and will look at possibly picking him up in other leagues.
Puka Nacua - If he continues to get Cooper Kupp volume in Kupp's absence, he will be a steal on the waiver wire. His success also hinges very much on QB Matthew Stafford staying healthy. If you have a hole and a pretty solid team in all other areas, go get him. Just be aware he will be way overpriced if you have to bid on players to get them off waivers. It's a risk because he has no track record, and at some point Kupp will be back in the lineup. Then what?
Tutu Atwell - See Nacua's write-up above. The risks are the same, and he seems to be cut out for one type of role based on his size and quickness. If Nacua and Kupp end up being the top-two guys, will there be enough footballs to go around to keep Atwell on your roster? Might be worth a shot now for a few weeks if you have the depth and don't have to spend much or anything to get him.
Kendrick Bourne - Beware of this one. We know who this guy is, and while he exploded yesterday, it's important to keep his track record in mind. Bourne has always been a solid role player with little or no fantasy value. Yeterday, he was a fantasy stud. Is that a product of the new offense in New England or the Patriots' desperation after falling so far behind so early? We wouldn't spend any capital on Bourne or have him take the place of any WR with a high upside.
Rashid Shaheed - He's explosive and probably a boom-or-but player who won't get the volume to be a dependable part of any team's weekly lineup. There is upside, and we know that if Derek Carr falls in love with a wideout the results can be spectacular. Not a top target, but worth a look if the situation is right.
Zay Jones - Christian Kirk still is on the team and figures to get substantially more targets and put up better numbers as the season wears on, but if you have a spot and need depth at a low price, Jones is a solid veteran who should have a decent floor when everyone settles into their roles following the addition of Calvin Ridley.
DJ Chark - He probably won't cost much and should be the top target in Carolina when he returns after what we saw from Adam Thielen and the rest of the Panthers' receivers yesterday.
Insufficient Data - River Cracraft, Rashee Rice and KaVontae Turpin. Keep an eye on these guys. Maybe take a shot now if you're in a very deep league.
Tight Ends
In most instances, unless you are fortunate to have one of the four truly elite tight ends in the NFL, your goal should be to simply keep up with your opponents when it comes to who you roster at TE. Find a guy who is more than a blocker, gets red-zone targets and is good for 8-10 points a week unless he manages to fall into the end zone while holding onto the ball. There are a lot of names on the wire this week who fit that description, but there are a few who may have a little more upside and are intriguing pickups for right now if you have a run-of-the-mill TE or a younger one who isn't producing just yet.
Logan Thomas - If he can stay healthy, which is a huge IF, he will be a big part of the Commanders' offense. He scored eight points in Week 1 without a TD, but probably had three more catchable balls that he dropped and some others that were either poorly thrown or affected by penalties. Sam Howell seems to target his tight ends quite a bit in the small sample size we have.
Hunter Henry - He's available in most leagues because of the uncertainty surrounding the TE rotation in New England. Henry had a big Week 1 and is certain to be a big enough part of the offense to start for most fantasy teams most weeks. The question is how many targets will he share with Mike Gesicki, but we feel like he's a low-risk pickup this week who is probably better than a lot of rostered tight ends.
Haden Hurst - We knew that Hurst would be the No. 1 guy in Carolina, but based on the new coaching staff and new rookie QB, we weren't sure what that would mean. After one week we've seen enough that we will target him in a few leagues for sure.