Houston Chronicle Photo
By SPM Scott
National Football League players and coaches often talk about attacking their schedules in four-week chunks and taking inventory of where their teams stand after each of those four segments. The NFL season is a marathon and a war of attrition, so this type of approach keeps organizations grounded and guards against unnecessary panic.
That approach also makes sense when the season is so long, especially now that so many teams rest most or all of their starters throughout preseason. The truth is that September is the new NFL preseason for many teams.
And while we have been preaching patience and a no-panic approach to full-season fantasy managers in this space since Week 1, the reality is that in the fantasy world we don't have the luxury of waiting that long before taking a hard look at how our team has performed to date and what the future might hold.
If our league's regular-season is 13 or 14 weeks long before the playoffs get underway, an 0-3 start means that to have a legitimate shot at the postseason we most likely would would need to go 7-3 or 8-3 the rest of the way. That's not an easy run to put together considering that being a game or two above .500 is the target to get in the playoffs to begin with - and it seems especially daunting if you haven't won any games at all yet.
So, while it's not time to panic, it is time to take inventory and really dig into the reasons why our teams have under-performed or overachieved based on our preseason expectations. Don't get us wrong, 0-3 is not good, but 0-4 would be a full-fledged disaster.
Here are some thoughts on the proper approach as you take inventory of your team or teams:
What's the record?
The easiest and most obvious reflection on how your team is performing is the won-loss record. Regardless of anything else, if your teams have won a game or two or three there is no reason to panic or completely blow up the ship. But no matter if the results have been good, bad or average, it's important at this point to take a deeper dive and figure out if the wins and losses are an accurate reflection of the team's performance and an indication of how the team might do going forward.
For teams that are 1-2 or 2-1 it might be fine to stand pat, but it's really important to make sure that for teams that are 3-0 or 0-3 we take a close look at how we've gotten to that point to make sure it's not a mirage. A 3-0 team might have lucked out and beaten the worst teams in the league despite lower-than-average weekly point totals, while an 0-3 team might have run up against average or below-avearge opponents who just blew up for one week before falling back to earth. It's also possible that the winless team has played three absolute juggernauts.
As we've already said many times, teams with good records should avoid complacency while teams that are underachieving should make sure their teams really are that bad before looking to make wholesale changes. Teams in the middle should take a similar approach, but the situation may not be as urgent for them right now.
No matter what, the weekly routine for every manager should include scouring the waiver wire, studying other team rosters and looking for ways to improve without making knee-jerk reactions.
Look at the Game Results
Why is your record what it is? Did you win a game or two despite having one of the worst weekly totals? Did you lose games despite scoring above the weekly average score? Are you winning comfortably each week no matter who you play? Are you consistently below the league average and winning or losing?
Examining the results for each specific week will provide us with a pretty good idea of where our teams really stand. Once we assess that, it's important to take a look at why the results turned out the way they did.
Did we have key players who missed the game or left the game early because of injuries? Were our losses a result of bad matchups or making incorrect roster decisions? Did we win because weaker players had unusually strong performances? Are our top players under-performing consistently? Did we just have a run of bad luck that was a combination of playing opposing teams that way over-performed while we had players out with injuries or just a down week?
Asking these questions while examining the weekly results allows us to determine if we need to manage our teams better, look for help in certain areas or just keep grinding because positive regression should be on the horizon.
Check Out the Total Points
If our teams are at the top of the standings but in the middle of the pack or lower in overall total points for the season, it's not the time to relax. If we stand pat and get comfortable because of our record, a drastic drop off in performance likely is right around the corner.
Likewise, if we are near the bottom of the standings but our total points points rank in the middle or even near the top, we probably don't want to shake things up too much. Of course, we always want to find ways to improve, but in cases like this it probably isn't the time to make a drastic YOLO trade.
We should continue to find ways to make our teams better on a weekly basis and not be afraid to pick up a players who are better than guys we currently have off the waiver wire or to trade for a better player or two with a team that is strong in areas in which we need help - and vice versa. Managers with losing records, but relatively high points totals, who blow it all up are more likely to seal their fate as a non-playoff team than they are to make substantial improvements to their lineups.
Some leagues provide playoff probabilities for the teams each week, too, which can be helpful when figuring out if your team is underperforming. We have a team that is 11th out of 12 teams in total points and has a 1-2 record, but the probability of making the playoffs still is 64 percent.
That team probably just needs some minor adjustments to climb the standings and make the playoffs, but a 3-0 team with a 64-percent chance to make the playoffs should be looking to make adjustments as wFind out the Why
So after figuring out whether our teams are overachieving or underachieving, it's time to figure out exactly why our point totals are surprisingly low or over-inflated and to react accordingly.
Maybe the players we projected are contributing well below their expected levels. That happens, but it doesn't mean that it's time to give up on those players. If their usage is still at a top-tier level, the subpar performance may be a result of difficult matchups or perhaps the player's team is adapting to a new system or has key injuries to other positions that are hurting the overall performance of the offense.
Bad matchups happen. Check the rest of the schedule to see how the matchups look going forward. Many fantasy services provide strength of opposing schedules by position and even offer rest-of-the-season projections. If the usage is high and the future matchups seem favorable, it's probably a good idea to hang onto that player.
Of course, underachieving can be affected by other factors, too. Maybe a young quarterback is hurting the offense and just can't get the ball to the best players consistently. Maybe a new offensive scheme simply isn't panning out. Perhaps injuries to the offensive line or even another skill-position player are making it challenging for an offense or a player to be successful.
We should figure out the reason for the underwhelming results then check the future schedule. If the upcoming matchups seem favorable and our teams are in the middle of the pack, despite our players' struggles it may be best to hang on to them and really focus on making better lineup decisions each week.
But if our team is on the verge of dropping from contention and we have a top-tier player who is underachieving without strong indicators that the results should return to a levels that are closer to expectations soon, this player might have tremendous value to an opposing manager who thinks her or she is one piece away from winning a championship.
That manager may be willing to take a chance on a return to form and provide good value in return for the struggling player. If we can sure up two positions by getting consistent players who may combine to give us more than the player we are giving away, that's the type of deal we are looking to make. Don't get wrapped up in a player's name or past performance; we need to do what's best for our teams right now.
For managers of teams that are 0-3 and the performance of the players and team as a whole indicates that's probably appropriate for the group that has been assembled, it's definitely time to consider making some drastic changes. Before doing that, however, we should take inventory of the bench players to make sure that we might have some players who can assume larger roles going forward and that our lineup decisions haven't been what's crippling the team.
Giving up our best player and maybe another top-tier prospective player who have underachieved to this point in return for several solid and consistent performers may be the right first step. Then perhaps we can search for other players who have been disappointing to date and may be frustrating their owners.
If a manager is frustrated and looking to make a move - and it appears as though the matchups going forward might allow the player to rebound - that type of deal may be worth a shot. Maybe we don't have the depth and all the pieces in place to make the type of deal we want right away, but making a smaller deal first can put us in position to do a subsequent deal that will get us where we want to be.
And give us hope.
While there still are waiver-wire moves to be made during the course of the season that can bolster our lineups and help us advance to the playoffs or win a championship, at this point in the season most of the potential impact players who were on waivers have been picked through. It's time for managers who feel like their situations are becoming dire to look at making moves that may be risky but have the potential to turn their seasons around.
What About Waivers?
WIthout a doubt, we should be checking the waiver wire weekly in search of players who might be upgrades over what we currently have. There are guys out there who can help our teams almost every week, but if you are in a highly competitive or a deeper league, those players may becoming scarce and there always will be competition for their services.
This week, for example, for those of us in competitive or deeper leagues, there may be a quarterback such as a Brock Purdy, Andy Dalton, Kenny Pickett or Jimmy Garappolo available who may be worth adding for a week if our QBs have difficult matchups. In less-competitive leagues we've seen QBs such as Jordan Love, Geno Smith and C.J. Stroud on the wire.
Tight end, kicker and defense are other positions where a one-week pickup can help us win a game or maybe even more if the timing is right. Some of the tight ends we've noticed on the wire in more competitive and deeper leagues include Donald Parham, Cole Kmet, Cade Otton, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Logan Thomas, Gerald Everett and Jake Ferguson.
And in one league it's finally happening; Kyle Pitts is on the wire!
If your team is struggling and you don't have a stud starting tight end, this is the type of player worth grabbin. Yes, he's been a disappointment for the last two years, but he is considered untouchable by the Falcons' organization - which has to mean something - and he certainly has the raw talent to be a game-changer in Atlanta and for a struggling fantasy team.
Players like Pitts are the main reason we scour the wire every week. We all get frustrated with our teams at some point, but some of us do a better job thinking clearly when we feel that way and don't just cut potential game-changers three weeks into the season.
We check the wire hoping that there are those types of managers in our leagues and that they occasionally will gift us a player who can help turn around our season or give us the depth we need to make a deep playoff run. That's also why we poke around and ask about trades for top-tier players who might be off to slow starts.
By checking the waivers for those types of players, in turn we may also find the hidden gems who have upside later in the season but for whatever reason haven't gotten the chance yet. Or there may be players who are stepping into larger roles going forward as a result of injuries to their teammates.
This week, some of those players include wide receivers Kalif Raymond, Nelson Agholor, Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft. A few other younger receivers with upside such as Josh Downs, Treylon Burks, Tank Dell and Jayden Reed also might be available.
Then there are veterans such as Adam Thielen, Chase Claypool and Marquez Valdes-Scantling who have shown signs of life the recent weeks and may be assuming larger roles for teams using backup QBs or trying to cure their offensive woes.
The supply is thinner when it comes to running backs, but given the struggles of Alexander Mattison and Minnesota's 0-3 record, it wouldn't be surprising to see Ty Chandler or newly acquired Cam Akers assume a larger role in the weeks ahead. Melvin Gordon had a solid game off the bench for the Ravens Sunday with Gus Edwards suffering a possible concussion, and Latavius Murray seems to have settled into the role as Buffalo's goal-line back.
Dallas has a history of getting the ball to its backup RBs a fair amount, and Rico Dowdle has looked solid in that role so far, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an Isiah Pacheco injury away from returning to the 15-touch-per-game role he enjoyed in the past. Matt Breida may have one or two productive weeks left in him before Saquon Barkley returns, and Sean Tucker is the No. 2 in Tampa behind Rachaad White, who has been better of late but still isn't lighting the world on fire.
One strategy when it comes to grabbing players off waivers is to project ahead a few weeks and think about the possibility of claiming the backups for running backs who are struggling and might be replaced such as Mattison, Najee Harris and Khalil Herbert as well as RBs who are often injured or coming off major injuries such as any Ravens RB, D'Andre Swift, Kenneth Walker, James Conner, Raheem Mostert and Christian McCaffrey.
Of course, other proactive managers may have scooped some of these guys off the wire already. That's why it's imperative to check every week and always try to improve our rosters.