By Scotty P. – SPM Fantasy Staff
No matter how many months we have waited in anticipation and how much we have looked forward to the start of the National Football League season, when it comes to fantasy football and DFS projections, gathering information and trying to sort out how Week 1 will go always seems to sneak up on us. But it’s here! Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season has a full slate of games today and only one Monday Night opener this year coming off a thrilling victory by the defending-champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Dallas Cowboys Thursday night.
Below you will find our Week 1 DFS value picks. Predicting the first week of the season is an inexact science, but we do our best to filter through enough information to come up with picks that can help you cash out right from the start. We look at individual and unit matchups based on last year’s statistics, this year’s player additions, coaching tendencies and projected regression. Then we head to Vegas and check out the games that are projected to produce the most points as well as the teams most likely to win by larger margins. Finally, we scour the web and analyze as many player projections as possible, mix them in with our own, and come up with a consensus.
The final piece of this puzzle is to find the players who won’t be owned by too large a percentage of the folks you will be playing against. Players you will find on the lists below who are expected to be owned by 15 percent of all players or more include, from highest to lowest:
Kyle Pitts
Michael Pittman
Najee Harris
Stefon Diggs
Dalvin Cook
Calvin Ridely
Antonio Gibson
Patrick Mahomes
Highly owned players not on our value lists include: Christian McCaffrey
Davante Adams
Marquez Callaway
Derrick Henry
Full-Season Fantasy Lineup Strategy
We don’t have too much advice for Week 1. It seems pretty simple to u; you drafted a team, so let the starters start.
Don’t let the opening week, when we do all that we can to provide you with the best information to make solid decisions (with an understanding that this will be the most surprising and volatile week of the season), cause you to overthink or undo all the time, effort and research you put into your draft.
If you drafted a player as a No. 1 or No. 2 QB, WR or RB, play them. If you drafted a TE 1, play him. For the rest, look for the best matchups you can find and probably go with the safest players with the highest floors to maximize your chances of success. Good luck! Here are out Week 1 DFS top-value plays:
Quarterback
1) Jalen Hurts – 6400 DK, 7600 FD
2) Ryan Tanehill – 6500 DK, 7700 FD
3) Kyler Murray – 7600 DK, 8400 FD
4) Patrick Mahomes – 7800 DK, 8800 FD
5) Matt Ryan – 6000 DK, 7300 FD
6) Trevor Lawrence – 6200 DK, 6800 FD
Super Value QBs:
Sam Darnold – 5000 DK, 6500 FD
Jimmy Garoppolo – 5500 DK, 6900 FD
Running Back
1) James Robinson – 6400 DK, 5900 FD
2) Raheem Mostert – 5800 DK, 6100 FD
3) Joe Mixon – 6200 DK, 7200 FD
4) Alvin Kamara – 8600 DK, 8600 FD
5) Antonio Gibson – 5900 DK, 7000 FD
6) Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 6600 DK, 6800 FD
7) Myles Gaskin – 6000 DK, 6000 FD
8) Najee Harris – 6300 DK, 6500 FD
9) Nick Chubb – 7200 DK, 7700 FD
Super Value RBs:
Javonte Williams – 4000 FD, 5600 DK
Chase Edmonds – 4600 DK, 5900 FD
Trey Sermon – 4500 DK, 5200 FD
Wide Recever
1) Brandon Aiyuk – 5700 DK, 6500 FD
2) D.J. Moore – 6100 DK, 6200 FD
3) Deebo Samuel – 5900 DK, 6300 FD
4) Stefon Diggs – 7600 DK, 7900 FD
5) Jerry Jeudy – 4800 DK, 5500 FD
6) Robby Anderson – 5700 DK, 6200 FD
7) Tee Higgins – 4700 DK, 6000 FD
8) Laviska Shenault – 4800 DK, 5600 FD
9) Tyler Boyd – 5200 DK, 5900 FD
10) Marvin Jones – 3600 DK, 5800 FD
Super Value WRs:
DeVonta Smith – 4500 DK, 5300 FD
Michael Pittman – 4100 DK, 5300 FD
Donovan Peoples-Jones – 3000 DK, 4700 FD
Terrace Marshall – 3000 DK, 4900 FD
Jalen Reagor – 3700 DK, 5400 FD
Tight End
1) Kyle Pitts – 4400 DK, 6000 FD
2) Logan Thomas – 4600 DK, 5600 FD
3) Dallas Goedert – 4800 DK, 3900 FD
4) Austin Hooper – 4000 DK, 5100 FD
Super Value TE:
Jordan Aikens – 3000 DK, 4800 FD