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By Scott P. - SPM Staff
First, we will start today's column be re-posing our early NFL picks that were made two weeks ago. Remember the objective of these picks is to use various clues available to us when lines are first posted to find numbers that might be slightly off and to place bets on these numbers before they head too far in the opposite direction. The ultimate goal is to beat the closing line, and of course to win the bet. Sometimes you beat the closing line and still lose. Then you tip your cap.
Week 1 NFL Early Picks
Buffalo -2.5 at Los Angeles Rams - WINNER
Saints -5.5 at Falcons
Current line: -5.5
This one opened over the summer at -3.5, but when the official season-opening lines appeared a few weeks it was around -5 and appeared to be moving toward the Saints. It has basically held tight at -5.5 (-110) at most books, though. Still expecting some late movement as kickoff approaches. The Saints have a strong defense and plenty of weapons on offense with WR Michael Thomas appearing to be ready to return to the lineup full time after battling injuries for two years. Alvin Kamara looks to have dodged a suspension for off-field behavior, at least for the time being, and New Orleans' defense is very good. The Saints are undervalued and playing possibly the worst team in the NFL to open the season. Starting QB Jameis Winston also returns after a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year. We are still on this.
Dolphins -2.5 vs. New England
Current line: -3.5
This line already opened at -2.5 and moved quickly to -3. Initial line movement usually indicates sharp interest in a particular side. We didn't think it would stop there, and it hasn't. New England's offense appears to be in disarray with no clear-cut, experienced offensive coordinator or play-caller. Mac Jones has proven to be serviceable at QB and should continue to improve this year, but that remains to be seen and might take some time given the OC situation. The Patriots are decent on D, but lacking some of the secondary personnel they've had in the past. That appears to be a problem against a Dolphin team that is loaded with offensive weapons. New England's running game is solid and deep, but the WRs are not striking fear into opponents. Miami, on the other hand, has hired an offensive whiz as head coach and provided him with a lot of toys to play with. The Dolphins upgraded at RB, adding Chase Edmonds, and brought in the WR who NFL defenses fear most in Tyreek Hill. Second-year WR Jaylen Waddle had a strong rookie season, and Mike Gesicki is a pass-catching TE who is athletic enough to split out wide to create mismatches. Normally we could count on the New England coaching staff making every game winnable, but the offensive play-calling situation has us concerned, and the Pats traditionally don't play well in Florida. This number is at -3.5 now, but appears to be sliding back to -3, so if you missed it at -2.5 wait for it to drop a half point before pulling the trigger.
Vikings +2.5 vs. Packers
Current Line: Vikings +1.5
This number has bounced back and forth, but early indicator showed sharp interest at +2.5. We just think the Vikings are more ready to open the season and have more overall weapons at this point. Minnesota has underachieved in recent years, mostly because they had a defensive-minded coach who was ultra-conservative and refused to take advantage of having as much skill-position talent as anyone in the NFL to go along with a more-than-serviceable QB. Enter Kevin O'Connell, who comes over from the Super Bowl- champion Rams after working for years with and under Sean McVay and in the Shanahan system. He was with Washington when QB Kirk Cousins had his most productive years and figures to be more creative in taking advantage of the talent at his disposal. The main question mark with Minnesota is RB Dalvin Cook's shoulder, but the Vikings have a proven backup there in Alexander Mattison. Justin Jefferson is poised to be a top-three NFL receiver, and Adam Thielen is a TD machine who makes all the tough catches when healthy. Irv Smith should benefit from the new coach as well at TE as long as he can stay healthy. KJ Osborn is a more-than-adequate No. 3 WR and the addition of Jalen Reagor adds depth. The defense is improved, but will have to be much better this year. Green Bay, on the other hand, still has MVP Aaron Rodgers and a strong 1-2 punch at RB in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. But security-blanket and red-zone machine Davante Adams is off to Las Vegas, leaving behind an underwhelming WR corps, which would have led by Allen Lazard and may be relying quite a bit on younger players. Lazard is out with an injury this week, however. Rodgers will figure it out eventually, and the Packers once again will have a very strong defense, but he doesn't take any snaps in preseason games and traditionally shows a little bit of rust early in the season (see last year's embarrassing opening-day loss to the Saints). It should take a few weeks for him to adapt to life without Adams and get on the same page with the other guys. Minnesota appears to be undervalued this year. The line has moved toward the Vikings, so while you may have lost your edge as far as that goes, we are not opposed to taking Minnesota on the money line, too. We got the Vikings at +2.5.
Additional Early Bets Placed This Week
Steelers +6.5 at Bengals
Current Line: +7.5
We are in the camp that the Pittsburgh offense has to be at least a little better than last year's dink-and-dunk attack led by the immobile Ben Roethlisberger. Mitch Trubisky isn't winning the MVP anytime soon, but he has a strong enough arm to go along with the ability to run and extend plays. The Steelers managed to make the playoffs last year with an ineffective Big Ben running the show. Their defense is still strong, and head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record. He's also over 60 percent covering spreads as a dog, and divisional dogs have been an incredible play during Week 1 in recent years. Unfortunately this one has moved to +7 in many spots, so jump on that before it disappears if you can.
Other Week 2 Bets Being Considered
Lions +5.5 vs. Eagles
Would be hard to turn down given traditional underdog Week 1 success if it gets to +6.
Texans +7.5 vs. Colts
Sharps moved this away from +8.5 early on but it's creeping back. Again if it gets to +8 or +8.5 given the history of Week 1 dogs it's hard to not give it a shot.
Ravens -6.5 at Jets
This number also hovered above -7 for a long time. Books may be afraid Sharps will jump on it if it goes back to -7, although it's slightly juiced in that direction. New York teams tend to over-valued. Ravens at -6.5 against a depleted New York team with an immobile QB and a beat up offensive line seems like a win. We love the Ravens as a survivor pick. Any coaching and QB mismatch is attractive.
Panthers money line vs. Browns
The Panthers are better. Their QB is super-motivated. Jacoby Brissett is at QB for the Browns. The only thing holding us back is the line flip and the sharp movement. We have the Panthers 3.5 points better on a neutral field. This is our most likely bet.
Chargers -3.5 vs. Raiders (money line parlay with Ravens)
No real home field advantage here as Vegas fans will infiltrate Los Angeles for this one. The Raiders are improved but still might miss the playoffs after barely sliding in this year. Los Angeles has revenge on its mind. This number has held steady and the money is evenly divided. Anyone who follows hockey knows that Vegas teams tend to be overvalued. We think they are extremely overvalued in this one and like the Chargers as part of a possible money-line parlay with the Ravens.
Future Bets Placed
Chargers to win AFC West at +220
We have the Chargers at No. 2 in our NFL power rankings, behind the bills and ahead of teams like the Chiefs and Bengals. The division is tough, but Los Angeles is loaded on offense and has a young core that has learned some tough lessons the past couple years. It takes time to learn to win in this league, and they are ready. They also are strong enough on defense, with a line and secondary that is ranked among the NFL's top 10 by Pro Football Focus.
Updated NFL Power Rankings
Using Thursday's Rams-Bills result and looking a head to next week's early lines, we have updated our NFL Power Rankings heading into today's action:
Bills 96
Chargers 95.5
Packers 95
Bengals 94.5
Chiefs 94
Rams 93.5
Bucs 93
49ers 92.5
Eagles 92
Colts 91.5
Saints 91
Broncos 90.5
Ravens 90
Vikings 89.5
Dolphins 89
Raiders 88.5
Cowboys 88
Titans 87.5
Panthers 87
Steelers 86.5
Cardinals 86
Patriots 85.5
Commanders 85
Browns 84.5
Seahawks 84
Lions 83.5
Giants 83
Jaguars 82.5
Jets 82
Texans 81.5
Bears 81
Falcons
Possible Week 2 Early Bets
Indianapolis -4 at Jacksonville
Panthers PICK at Giants
Steelers -1.5 vs. Patriots
Bengals +2.5 at Cowboys
Raiders -3.5 vs. Cardinals
Packers -10 vs. Bears
Bills -7.5 vs. Titans
Eagles -2.5 vs. Vikings