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By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
This week's college football Monday Morning QB weekly review provides one of the most important - and also one of the most disregarded - lessons in sports gambling.
Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don't make.
Discipline is so important in this industry, but the temptation to win a few more bucks or experience the thrill of sweating a few more games often gets the best of us. This is especially true when we are having a rough weekend and those late-night college games are beckoning. That's how losing is compounded and how more casual bettors often dig a hole for themselves that either they never can recover from or that keeps getting deeper and deeper.
Along those same lines, Week 2 provided great insight into how line changes or freezes that hover around or cross key-number spreads can be vital information that helps you maintain your discipline. It's not about the exact number. There are so many outside forces like weather, officiating, coaching, terrible execution, bad decisions by players, etc. that can affect final scores. It's about which teams the respected bettors, who move lines and win a lot more often than most of us do, are willing to trust with their large wagers.
You want to know who THEY handicap as winners or teams that cover.
We all want insider info that is going to sway the results of a game one way or another, but the truth is that we don't have access to much more information than the any other member of the general public. Sure there are times when we can get some of the info first and use that to our advantage, but there also is so much more that we will never see or hear.
If others who make a living doing this have developed sources or some type of an edge that allows them to be successful, why not use the cues that their action provide to tap into that advantage and save some time and aggravation. And while that information shouldn't be the sole reason anyone makes a bet, it's a factor that should be considered among others, especially as game-time approaches and numbers move or don't move.
Another thing to understand is that line freezes have meaning, too, especially when the public money is overwhelmingly favoring one side. A line that is pushed above or below a key number doesn't mean that a game that is listed as -10 is going to end up having a spread of nine or 11 points, but it can provide an indication of which team is more likely to cover.
Last week, we were tracking the following games, but never placed the bets because the lines never got to the number we felt indicated that they were worth playing. We would have bet these games at these numbers:
South Carolina +9 at Arkansas
Final score: Arkansas 44, South Carolina 20
UNC -6.5 at Georgia State
Final score: UNC 35, Georgia State 25
Would have pushed or lost at the closing lines of +7 or +7.5.
Marshall +21 at Notre Dame
Final Score: Marshall 26, Notre Dame 21
This one just wouldn't budge off of +20.5. At 25 we would have bet it, but turns out we would have won either way.
Cal -11.5 vs. UNLV
Final Score: Cal 20, UNLV 14
Interestingly, a couple models we looked at had this game as a six-point spread. It closed at -12 or -12.5. We saved our money by not betting it since it never got to our target number. It still wouldn't have won at -11.5, but our discipline paid off.
Fresno State at Pick, +0.5 or better vs. Oregon State
Final Score: Oregon State 35, Fresno State 32
This one flipped back and forth many times. It was clear that this was going to be a close one since there seemed to be no strong indicators either way.
Now here is a look at the games we did recommend and bet:
Iowa State +4 at Iowa (-110) - WIN & beat closing line
Closing line +3.5
Final Score: Iowa State 10, Iowa 7
We stayed away at +3.5 but finally got it at +4 and it was a winner in a tight game with little-to-no offense in tough conditions. Really should have looked at the under in this one. All the signs were there.
Houston at Texas Tech -2.5 (110) - WIN & beat closing line
Closing Line +3.5
Houston was extremely lucky to win at UTSA last week, and we knew from line movement early in the week that sharps liked Texas Tech quite a bit. We were saved by a ridiculous 4th-and-20 conversion by Tech in the first overtime. That's how close this one was.
Memphis at Navy (+6) (-110) - LOSS & beat closing line
Closing Line: +4.5
Final Score: Memphis 37, Navy 13
Navy hung in there as they always do, but it was pretty clear early that Memphis had a substantial edge in size, speed and strength and likely would wear the Mids down. That's exactly what happened as we lost this one. The line ended up at
Colorado +17.5 or +18 at Air Force (-110) Loss & beat closing line
Closing Line: +16.5
Final Score: Air Force 41, Colorado 10
This line initially jumped from +15 to +18 but then fell to +16.5 in many shops despite 83 percent of the money and more than half the bets coming in on Air Force. The public won this one.
Louisville +6 or +6.5 at UCF (-110) - WIN & Beat closing line
Final Score: Louisville 20, UCF 14
This game opened at +6 and climbed to +6.5 before dropping to +5.5 in many books. It has dropped despite UCF getting around 70 percent or more of the bets and money at 6.5. That means someone the books respects is hammering Louisville. This is the type of win and wager we look for.
ADDED THURSDAY, SEPT. 8
USC -7.5 at Stanford (-112) - WIN & pushed closing line
Final Score: USC
Early sharp money hammered this down from -9.5 to -7.5, so that raised some skepticism, but USC has possibly the best offense in the country and some very prominent sharps had USC as much larger favorites. This is why we take many factors into consideration with our bets. If highly respected models show a big edge we will take it. The Trojans stopped playing defense to make it interesting late, but they could have won by 30 if they really wanted to.
ADDITIONAL PICKS ADDED SEPT. 9 & 10
Pitt +6.5 vs. Tennessee (-114) - LOST & beat closing line
Closing Line: +5.5
Final Score: Tennessee 34, Pitt 27
You can't handicap bad coaching, which Pitt's staff was definitely guilty of in this one. A great game that went to overtime, this also shows the value of key numbers. At +7 this is a push. We liked that it was better than +6, and it settled at +5.5, so we felt like it was a good edge. Pitt controlled the ball most of the game and led early. The Panthers went for it instead of taking the points when they were about to blow the game open early and also threw a pick in the end zone. Their top two QBs and starting center also got hurt during the game. This was a good handicap. Can't win them all!
Duke +10.5 at Northwestern (-115) - WIN & beat closing line
Closing Line: +9.5
Final Score: Duke 31, Northwestern 23
Duke jumped in front early and this one was never in doubt. Northwestern seemed overvalued from the start and everything pointed toward Duke being able to keep this one with in 10. One of our more obvious picks. Just needed to get it at +10.5. Jumped on it when it got there, and it did't stay there long.
Week 2 Overview
Weekly CFB Record: 5-3
Beat Closing Line: 6-1-1
Winning Percentage: 62.5
Profit: +1.49 units
Season Overview:
Overall CFB Record: 8-7-1
Beat Closing Line: 9-4-3
Winning Percentage: 53.3%
Profit: +1.18 units