NBC Sports Chicago photo
By Scotty P. – SPM Staff
Our pre-Week 1 NFL fantasy football advice was to go with the low-risk, high-volume players on your full-season rosters and in DFS. As with anything for Week 1 of any sports season, some of our recommendations were home runs while we went down looking on some of the others.
There were some whiffs, too, which are fine because the process was good. When you do your homework and put in the effort to uncover the best information and make good choices based on your findings, it’s okay to be wrong.
Swinging and missing is fine – as long as you took a swing. No one is perfect.
There are many outside factors we can’t control that determine who wins a football game in real life and in our little fantasy world. Sometimes the right lineup decision or the right game handicap turns out wrong, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
When that happens – just like an athlete or coach would on the field of play – you tip your cap and move on. In those cases, athletes, coaches and fantasy managers need to have a short memory and to return to the grind as long as the approach was sound.
It’s when we take a called third strike without even putting up a fight that we need to analyze what went wrong and pledge to not let it happen again. Learn and evolve.
I consider our recommendations in favor of Cole Kmet and Irv Smith Jr. to be called third strikes. We didn’t even take a swing. The decision to pursue Kmet in full-season and DFS was based on listening to speculation by fantasy “pundits” and after viewing parts of Bears preseason games.
It’s been said here over and over that we shouldn’t put much – if any – stock in preseason performances when it comes to early-season lineup choices. We also frequently recommend that fantasy managers do their own research on players the expert “analysts” are touting as “can’t miss” or “breakout” players to make sure they are making the best-possible decisions.
It’s okay to use that advice to narrow your options, but this is YOUR team. Winning fantasy managers put a good deal of time and effort into making their teams the best they possibly can, so why would we blindly listen to anyone telling us what to do without absolute proof that they those pundits are performing better than us consistently (for the record, that includes information you get here)?
How did it go last week for Kmet, Smith, Dameon Pierce, George Pickens, Tyler Allegier, Breece Hall, Allen Robinson and Cee Dee Lamb?
Meanwhile, players we were told to avoid such as Antonio Gibson and Clyde-Edwards Helaire turned in strong performances while players like Curtis Samuel, Devin Duvernay and Rex Burkhead, who weren’t mentioned at all, also did extremely well.
Sure, it’s Week 1, and we shouldn’t fall into the trap of overreacting one way or another or fall for the annual Week 1 “breakout” performances that lead nowhere and always seem to happen (see Sammy Watkins). There shouldn’t be panic, but we also shouldn’t be pounding our chests because we won our games and ignoring players who are available and might be able to help our teams.
Complacency has killed many a fantasy championship contender. Football is a cruel sport; it’s a war of attrition. The moment you think you’ve got everything figured out and that your team is good to go is the exact time two of your players suffer soft-tissue injuries in practice and mysteriously disappear for six or more weeks even though the injuries are “not considered serious.”
Follow your process and trust it – whatever it is – and if you don’t have a process, let’s work on developing one. Allot an hour each day to spend trying to improve your team or teams.
Scan your lineups daily, looking deeper into your players’ stats than just points and touches. Make sure they are playing their fair share of snaps, are running enough routes and are getting enough targets to maintain or improve their production. If you are strong and deep in one area and weaker in another, check out the other teams in your league to see if there might be a potential trade partner at some point down the road if your struggles continue. And of course, check the waiver wire to see what players are available who might be able to help you.
Avoid making knee-jerk decisions this first week about waiver pickups, though. If someone had surprising numbers, dig a little deeper. Were the points touchdown dependent (see O.J. Howard) or was the player featured prominently in the offensive game plan? How many snaps did he play, how many touches and targets did he get and how many routes did he run?
For your players who under-performed, check to if there is any news as to why that might have happened. What did the coach say after the game about the player or the offense in general? Maybe the player got plenty of playing time and had a tough matchup or was the victim of bad luck, questionable coaching decisions, poor quarterback play or a difficult matchup. Perhaps the coach even took the blame and vowed to get the player more involved the following week.
As far as potential waiver pick-ups this week, a lot depends on the size of your league. If you are in a 10-team league there likely are players available who can help your team immediately and for the long term. These players should be considered seriously but be careful because in a 10-team format your team should be full of good players. Don’t give up on someone after one bad game who has a solid track record or big upside and probably can help you in the future.
Samuel, for instance, was used as a running back, in the slot and out wide. He had a bunch of targets, carried the ball several times and appeared to be a key part of Washington’s offensive scheme. The main concern for him will be his health, but he looks like a legit No. 2/3 wide receiver who will get plenty of opportunities to produce.
Duvernay is Baltimore’s No. 2 receiver no questions asked, and he appeared up to the task. The No. 2 receiver on a quality team likely is going to be a better choice than someone currently on your roster.
Burkhead got the bulk of the carries and caught the ball out of the backfield for Houston. Many people were high on Dameon Pierce based on his preseason performance. At best, Pierce is stuck in a committee situation for the time being, and at worst he is a backup on a weaker team behind a solid veteran.
Pierce is worth having, though, as Burkhead is injury-prone, and the Texans likely are easing him into the lineup. The real question is whether Burkhead will continue to have a larger role than someone on your bench. Digging a little deeper into the stats and usage should help you figure that out.
Be wary of tight ends like O.J. Howard and some others who had double-figure points on a small number of targets thanks to scoring touchdowns. It’s great to have a primary red-zone target on your team, but should you rush to drop a player like Kmet immediately to take a guy who had two scores on two targets? Probably not, but if you are ready to give up on someone you drafted already, picking up Howard as at least short-term TE insurance isn’t the worst idea.
There 100 percent are players out there in your league who can help your team, but don’t mortgage your future or spend too much of your free-agent budget for someone right now just because you struggled in Week 1. Make sure the statistics, news and other information available to you support any decisions you make, keeping in mind that the NFL is a war of attrition and many top players will go down with injuries throughout the year.
The free agent you miss out on this week likely will be replaced by a better option at some point later in the year. There will be many opportunities to improve your team, which is why it is important you spend time on your team and available players every single day. In-season decisions often have a much larger impact on the ultimate success or failure of your team than the draft, so you want to be ready for any potential scenario that might arise.
That rookie you are stashing who is only getting a few touches probably is being brought along slowly and might turn into your RB1 if the guy in front of him goes down with an injury. The forgotten veteran who is just returning to health and everyone in your league forgot about might be worth picking up now in case he’s activated for Week 5.
Approaching your team as if you’re an actual real-life general manager will increase your overall enjoyment of fantasy football, and your results will improve accordingly. The most-satisfying seasons are the ones during which you reconstruct a team that is falling apart early in the year and turn it into a playoff team and championship contender.
I’ve been participating in fantasy sports for at least 30 years and can assure you that most of my championship teams have been rebuilt and reloaded for a late-season surge into the postseason and through the playoffs. The teams that start red hot and may end up at the top of the standings often peter out and suffer early playoff exits because of complacency or injuries. Last year, I had a team that suffered five early losses but ended up sneaking into the playoffs at 9-5 and rolled to the league title.
Just like in real life, you want your team peaking in December and not September. Put in the time this week like any other week and trust your process. If you make the best decision based on your research and your approach instead of panicking, things should work out just fine.
Below is a recap of how our teams did this week:
Weekly record in full-season money leagues: 4-1
Overall season record in full-season money leagues: 4-1 (scored 138 in only loss)
RT Sports Guillotine League:
2nd out of 17 with 114 points (7-player lineup)
One and Done Guillotine League:
13th out of 17 with 108 points (new lineup each week, use players only once each)
NFC 12-team League:
10th of out 12 with 121 points
RT Sports Cutline
2 of 4 teams survived (three-player teams, use players only once each)