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By Scotty P. – SPM Staff
When it comes to Week 1 of the NFL season, it’s safe to say that chaos reigns. But we knew that coming in to the 2022 campaign.
Or did we?
Need evidence?
Look no farther than any of the local or national Survivor contests that football fans enter enthusiastically every year. More than 50 percent of better than 6,100 entries were eliminated Sunday in the national Cira Survivor contest. In the most lucrative contest that I enter, which includes nearly 1,000 contestants from around the country, about 60 percent were knocked out.
I entered three contests and made three different picks – 49ers, Ravens and Chiefs. Normally I would be upset that one of entries had been eliminated right away, but this year based on the national average it seems like two out of three ain’t bad. And fortunately, the Ravens were my top pick in the most expensive contest.
Beyond the obvious, though, Week 1 underdogs continue to be a very strong NFL bet. The Bears, Seahawks, Texans, Giants, Falcons and Lions entered the season considered bottom feeders by most NFL “experts,” and they all covered their spreads, with Chicago, Seattle and New York winning outright. And the Steelers, a 6.5 dog at Cincinnati, pulled off a miracle overtime win against the defending AFC champs.
What a week.
Extending that theme, we aren’t saying that all dogs are automatic bets (they were 8-8 this year against the spread), but this is the NFL, the home of thrilling endings that often seem to be a concoction that includes terrible coaching, mysterious drive-extending third- and fourth-down flags, prevent defenses and back-door covers. The larger spreads, even if they often feature the “bad teams,” are probably worth a bet a lot more often then they aren’t on opening weekend.
It's never a good plan to just look at a system or a trend and blindly throw money on the team that fits that narrative, but for Week 1 of the NFL season if you see an underdog that crosses the key threshold of +6 or +6.5, any intelligent person should give that side serious consideration.
Entering Week 1, NFL home divisional dogs were 16-6-1 straight up and 19-4 overall over the previous 12 years. Overall, Week 1 dogs went 6-5 ATS this year, but underdogs of +5 or better were 3-3-1 straight up (plus units on the money line) and 5-2 ATS. Meanwhile, home divisional dogs went 1-3-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. That makes them 23-5 ATS since 2009. Hard to ignore.
As always, since our handicapping process involves gathering all sorts of information, including sharp bettor preferences and line moves, trends and systems, analytic statistical models, injuries and other news as well as other information that can be gleaned from a variety of industry sources, we don’t recommend just relying on one person’s, one model’s or one trend’s lean or opinion. But when you a potential edge like that it’s worth investigating a little more and probably just throwing a few bucks on all games that meet the criteria to maximize your odds of being profitable. In those scenarios, when you just try to pick and choose a few of the games that you like, it can reduce any edge you might have.
Now here is a look at how we did this week:
Week 1 NFL Early Picks
Buffalo -2.5 at Los Angeles Rams (-134) - WIN & beat closing line
Closing Line -2
Final Score: Rams 31-10
The Rams looked like a team that hadn’t played together all preseason, as expected, and the Bills looked like the best team in the league in this blowout.
Saints -5.5 at Falcons (-110) - LOSS & pushed closing spread
Closing Line -5.5
Final Score: Saints 27-26
The Saints looked terrible for most of the game but then the new-look Falcons returned to their roots and blew a big fourth-quarter lead. New Orleans had chances to cover this number, but just failed to execute before Atlanta handed them the game with defensive indifference. Marcus Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson carried the load and played well for the Falcons, giving them hope to be a little more competitive this season than most folks expected.
Dolphins -2.5 vs. New England (-132) - WIN & beat closing spread
Closing Line: -3
Final Score: Dolphins 20-7
Even the greatest coach of all time couldn’t will his team to victory in hot, humid Miami. Predictably, the lack of having an experienced play-caller on the sidelines and having much explosive talent at the skill positions made it difficult for the Patriots to score. On the other side, Tua was efficient and effective at QB for the Fins, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle exposing the weaker-than-usual New England secondary. This one was never really in doubt. Oh, and Miami’s defense is pretty good and very underrated. Tons of speed and playmakers.
Vikings +2.5 vs. Packers (-115) - WIN & beat closing spread
Closing Line: Vikings +2
Final Score: Vikings 2307
Another team that predictably looked rusty after QB Aaron Rodgers took the whole preseason off, the Packers couldn’t get it going against an underrated Vikings team that is loaded offensively and benefitted from more creative play calling and an attacking style under new head coach Kevin O’Connell. It didn’t help that Green Bay’s No. 1-wide-receiver-by-default Allen Lazard missed the game with an injury and rookie WR Christian Watson dropped a sure TD pass early in the game. This is not unusual for Green Bay. The Pack and Rodgers were terrible in a season-opening blowout loss to the Saints last year and went on to win 13 games with the QB earning league MVP honors. Green Bay will not win 13 times this season, but Rodgers will figure it out and keep them in the playoff hunt.
Steelers +6.5 at Bengals (-114) - WIN and missed closing line)
Closing Line: +7
Final Score: Steelers 23-20
In the most exciting game of the week, one that included injuries, intrigue, bad coaching, missed field goals by top kickers and a clutch blocked kick by a guy who had just committed a bonehead penalty that could have cost his team the game, the Steelers and Mike Tomlin found a way. Tomlin as an underdog is better than a 60-percent bet over the course of his outstanding career, so this was no surprise. We loved this game at +6.5 given the divisional-dog scenario, the large spread and Tomlin’s success when being counted out. It would have been a virtual lock if we had seen it at +7, but no matter it was a winner.
Also Considered
These never quite got to where we wanted them, unfortunately because our leans were right on the mark, and it could have been a huge week. Passing on the Ravens was a mistake, but ultimately not having mobile betting in our area made it impossible to time the bet the way we wanted. We preferred them at +6, then it jumped to -7 before coming back down. We would have taken it at game time at -6.5 if that was possible. It was not. In hindsight, the Texans as a home divisional dog getting more than a touchdown would have been a solid choice, too. It kept jumping from +7 to +7.5, so timing there was an issue, too. Even at +7 this was a very solid pick.
Lions +5.5 vs. Eagles
Backdoor cover here, but still would have won.
Texans +7.5 vs. Colts
A tie that Houston led most of the way. The Texans had a chance to go for the win in OT but punted the ball away on 4th and 1 from midfield.
Ravens -6.5 at Jets
Ravens rolled as expected. Baltimore just has superior talent on the lines and defensive secondary, while the Jets were beat up on the offensive line and playing their backup immobile QB.
Panthers money line vs. Browns
This line kept flipping, indicating sharps on both sides of the number, so we stayed away. Browns won by 2 on the road. Good discipline here.
Chargers -3.5 vs. Raiders (money line parlay with Ravens)
We were on this if it ever got to -3 given the home divisional-dog situation. The Chargers are the second-best team in the NFL by our numbers, so we were willing to go against the trend at that key number. In addition, the Raiders were adjusting to a new coaching staff, which led to QB Derek Carr not looking comfortable, forcing too many passes to newly acquired Davante Adams and throwing three interceptions.
Future Bet
Chargers to win AFC West at +220
The Chargers are No. 2 in our power rankings, but the outstanding Week 1 showing by the Chiefs does not make this a slam dunk by any means. Should be a fun race to watch in the NFL’s best division.
Monday Night Twitter Play
Alt parlay +173 - WIN
R. Wilson over 225 pass yards, Seahawks +14.5, Under 50.5 points
Tracking Possible Week 2 Early Bets
Chargers +3.5 at Chiefs
Bucs -2.5 at Saints (we bet this on Monday)
Panthers +3 or better at Giants (it’s at +2.5 now)
Steelers +1.5 or better home vs. Patriots
Ravens -3 or better home vs. Dolphins (-3.5 now)
Rams -10 or better or home vs. Falcons (-10.5 now)
Seahawks +9 or better at 49ers (+8.5 now)
Bengals -7 or better at Cowboys (-7.5 now)
Cardinals +6 or better at Raiders (+5.5 now)
Bills -9.5 home vs. Titans – strong lean, doing more research
Week 1 NFL Review
Overall Record: 5-1
Beating the Closing Line: 3-1-1
Win Percentage: 83.3%
Profitability: +3.99 units
Week 1 Pick 6 Results
Record: 5-1
Wins:
Miami -2.5, Vikings, +2.5, Chiefs -2.5, Chargers -3.5, Steelers +6.5
Loss: Eagles -3.5
Overall season record: 5-1
Overall winning percentage: 83.3%
Week 1 Pick 5 Results
Record: 4-1
Wins: Steelers +6.5, Chargers -3.5, Giants +6.5, Chiefs -2.5
Loss: Saints -5.5
Overall season record: 4-1
Overall winning percentage: 80.0%