NFL.com Photo
By Scotty P. - SPM Staff
Welcome to the Dead Zone of fantasy football, better known as Week 3 of the National Football League season.
For the most part, any legitimate undrafted free agents already have been snatched up off your league’s waiver wire by owners who are freaking out about their teams. If your teams are off to decent starts as most of mine are, it’s not time to panic about an underachieving player or two on your roster.
That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be concerned about players such as Cole Kmet, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Terry McLaurin, Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, Kyle Pitts, etc. But there is no reason to give up on those guys unless there is an absolute slam-dunk free-agent available in your league or you receive a trade offer you just can’t refuse. And after two weeks, the number of undrafted slam-dunk free agents likely available will be minimal.
Those players who are available probably were snatched up by struggling teams that are lower in the standings and managers who are going to overpay because they are in panic mode.
If you have a solid lineup and aren’t 0-2, it’s just not the time to open the checkbook for anyone. Even if you are 0-2 and have been competitive with a team that is middle of the pack in terms of points scored, now is not the time. Players that can legitimately help you will become available in the weeks ahead.
That holds true for owners of teams in a guillotine format as well. There will be elite players available, but if your team has been well above the Mendoza Line the first two weeks, just let the other guys spend their money. Top players will become available every week, and by saving money now you will be able to get the best-available players later in the season when it’s more important for much less money because others will have depleted free-agent budgets.
You don’t need to lead the league in scoring every week in that type of format. It’s a survive-and-advance philosophy with the goal of fielding your absolute best lineup heading into December. The reality is that owners who follow a similar approach in more standard full-season formats likely will be better off in the long run, too.
That doesn’t mean we ignore the waiver wire these next couple of weeks, however. Remember that others will be panicking. Players who have frustrated to date with elite upsides will randomly appear on the waiver wire, and we don’t want to miss out on them. Late one night as we take one final look at the available players a name like Pitts
And farther down the waiver list there will promising players in potentially in potentially positive situations who can be added at little or no cost for deeper teams looking to stash someone as insurance for when injuries start to take a tool on our lineups later in the season. If we want to be as successful as possible we can’t let a single day go by without checking waivers and at least once a week we should glance at the rosters of every other team in our league.
Follow NFL teams and their beat writers on Twitter and read whatever news you uncover about teams that already are dealing with injuries or that are relying on frequently injured players. The San Francisco 49ers are a prime example. For whatever reason, as good as they are, the Niners aways seem to be plagued by injuries. George Kittle was out. Trey Lance is done for the year. Elijah Mitchell is out for two months. Other guys have gone down. Who is next up in their running-back rotation? Do you even know? That’s your homework assignment for this week. The answer might be in this article.
Figure it out, and if you have room consider picking that player – and others like him around the league – up to stash them for later. San Francisco seems to be able to run the ball no matter who is in the lineup, so it’s really a low-risk play. You can always dump this player later if another pressing need arises for your team.
Smart fantasy managers will make these types of moves at little or no cost or risk instead of burning through their free-agent budgets or giving up a prime waiver slot for someone who might be a flash in the plan. Try to avoid rushing to acquire players with solid point totals but who are touchdown dependent. If they aren’t getting good usage but have happened to fall into the end zone with the ball a few times, it’s likely that regression is looming.
The other way we can spend our time at this point in the season is by analyzing the rosters of the 0-2 teams in our league to determine which rosters have underachieving, yet proven, players they might be willing to trade for a player of lesser value with less potential who have produced better to date.
If someone is ready to panic, let’s try to use that to our advantage to get better and bring in players who might be able to win us a championship if they ultimately return to form. Keep in mind that there may be many factors contributing to a players’ disappointing performance thus far.
There are a lot of new coaches this year, so some players may be going through and adjustment period. Many teams have new quarterbacks, so even if the coaching staff is the same for the rest of the team, the QB may still be getting comfortable with a new system and new teammates. Some teams have added pieces to their offense and don’t have to rely on their top guys as much as in the past.
Teams that have gotten off to slow stats, especially underachieving 0-2 teams like the Colts, Raiders, Titans and Bengals, are going to be in desperation mode and are going to start leaning more on their most-talented players who have gotten the job done for them in the past.
Look at the Rams after their Week 1 loss to the Bills. Sean McVay made it clear he was going to find a way to use his weapons more effectively and look what happened. Cam Akers went from three carries to a 50/50 share with Darrell Henderson, and Allen Robinson found the end zone.
If NFL teams aren’t giving up on players who have produced solid numbers in the past, there’s no reason for us to give up on them now. That’s the nature of the beast in fantasy football, though, and smart team managers will look to take advantage of that. Buying low on high-ceiling players via the trade market is a great strategy for building a championship contender.
This philosophy can be used to our advantage in DFS formats as well. The salaries of high-upside, high-usage players who are struggling will plummet. Check out their matchups this week. Listen to the coaches' press conferences. Read the daily team news reports. It won’t be hard to figure out which coaches are disappointed with a player, and which are disappointed in themselves and looking to get those guys more involved.
With a little bit of research and effort we can uncover valuable information that can help us to improve our full-season teams for championship runs and build DFS lineups that are full of players who perform at a top-tier level every week along with some other high-quality, high-ceiling guys who will not be highly owned and may be ready to break out.
That’s how we make some money in fantasy football no matter wich format we are playing.
Here are some players to look at in various scenarios:
Deep Waiver-Wire Players for the Future
Jordan Mason – 49ers RB
The former Georgia Tech RB seems to move up the depth chart daily thanks to Niners injuries. We are only two games into the season, so it seems unlikely that Jeff Wilson Jr. will remain healthy for the duration, which means Mason is likely to get a shot at some point in an offensive system that seems to be able to run the ball well no matter who carries it.
Marlon Mack – 49ers RB
That’s right, Mack is on the practice squad, and the former 1,000-yard NFL rusher would be a great fit who head coach Kyle Shanahan can trust if the injuries keep coming.
Brian Robinson – Commanders RB
He was drafted in some leagues despite being on the injured list until October. Antonio Gibson has looked good catching passes but has not been overly effective running the ball. Robinson looked to be a strong downhill runner in preseason and looked to be the starter who would at least share touches with Gibson. With all the offensive weapons in DC right now, if Robinson comes back at 100 percent, he’s the type of runner who benefit and put up good numbers immediately.
Justice Hill – Ravens RB
How long can John Harbaugh continue to stomach the lack of production at RB from veteran retreads?
Hassan Haskins – Titans RB
If the Titans don’t go into full-out desperation mode this week and let Derrick Henry carry it 25-30 times for better or worse it may be time for Tennessee to cash out and get what they can for him and move right into rebuild mode. If the Titans don’t start winning, Haskins’ role likely will increase quite a bit in the not-too-distant future.
Gus Edwards – Ravens RB
JK Dobbins will be back at some point, but even when both were healthy the Gus Bus got enough touches to be considered a reasonable flex option and was used on the goal line and in the fourth quarter to close out games. Not having that hammer has really hurt Baltimore the last 18 games, so Edwards should assume a decent-sized role upon his return. Harbaugh is a guy who is happy to go with the hot hand, too, which can be hard to determine from a fantasy perspective week to week. If Dobbins continues to struggle with his health, it’s possible that Edwards could wind up in a bell-cow role once he is back in the lineup and healthy.
Damien Williams – Falcons RB (injured)
If Patterson gets hurt or his role changes and Tyler Allegier struggles, they have a proven veteran in Williams who has played well in the NFL when healthy and given a chance. With Williams on the IR, this would be a stash for later in the season. If your league has an injured list, even better. Grab him and park him there and let it play out.
Ashton Dulin – Colts WR
Even when Michael Pittman played and was productive in Week 1, Dulin got plenty of snaps and targets to be worthy of a roster spot in most formats. He is averaging over 10 points per game in PPR. If you have a roster spot being held down by someone who is just taking up space, consider adding Dulin now.
Breshad Perriman – Bucs WR
If Tampa Bay’s WR corps continues to be crushed by injuries (and suspensions), Tom Brady has a history of making players better than they really are, and Perriman has had some big games in an up-and-down career. By default, he likely would put up solid numbers week to week if forced into more of a full-time role with the Bucs.
Jamison Crowder – Bills WR
Isaiah McKenzie hasn’t performed at the level many pundits expected to date and Crowder is an experienced veteran who could thrive in the slot role in the league’s best offense. Keep an eye on this one.
Jalen Reagor – Vikings WR
Adam Thielen is starting to become an afterthought it appears, and if he doesn’t turn up his production soon – or if he gets hurt as usual – KJ Osborn likely will move into the No. 2 role in Minnesota, which might give Reagor a great opportunity in a high-powered offense. Follow this situation closely and be ready to make a move maybe a week earlier than you might want to.
Odell Beckham Jr. – TBD WR
If you have a deep team that is performing well, why wouldn’t you take a chance on him? If he could play down the stretch like he did last season with the Rams he might put a fantasy team over the top.
Taysom Hill – TE/QB Saints
Jameis is hurt, so Hill’s role might increase on many levels. Even if he plays a few snaps at QB and a few at TE every game his scoring potential is intriguing.
Isaiah Likely – TE Ravens
If Mark Andrews were to get hurt, this guy will light it up for Baltimore. He will continue to get some touches here and there no matter what, but you can’t bank on him as a fantasy starter unless Andrews goes down. If you get him in advance and that does happen you will be set at the TE position for the rest of the year.
Armani Rodgers – TE Commanders
Logan Thomas is playing pretty well but doesn’t appear to be 100 percent yet. If he were to get hurt again, Rodgers likely will become the team’s top pass-catching tight end after a very strong preseason. He may not get a ton of snaps, because he’s probably not an NFL blocker yet, but he will be extremely efficient as far as targets and red-zone looks are concerned.
Kenny Pickett – QB Steelers
It doesn’t seem likely that Mike Tomlin will want to watch the Mitchell Trubisky show much longer if the team isn’t winning games. Pickett seems mature beyond his years on the field and is surrounded by weapons. He would make the offense much more dynamic and have the ability to put up some big numbers to go along with the usual rookie growing pains. For those of you dealing with QBs such as Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Mac Jones or Matt Ryan right now, Pickett might be a nice insurance policy.
Cole Beasley – WR Bucs
He’s available and has a great QB, so he’s worth a shot if no one has grabbed him already.
Nelson Agholor – WR Patriots
The target share is there. The air yards are there. The points have been there. Apparently he wasn’t well-liked by Josh McDaniels but has a new lease on life with McDaniels gone. He’s still available in some leagues and worth a bench spot.
Buy-Low Trade & DFS Targets
These are proven players who play important roles in their team’s offense and who have not put up their usual numbers to this point. They might be available at below their true value in a full-season league trade or at a bargain price in DFS (FanDuel salary listed).
Terry McLaurin – WR Commanders ($6,900)
Tee Higgins – WR Bengals ($7,300)
DK Metcalf – WR Seahawks ($6,700)
DJ Moore – WR Panthers ($6,400)
Darnell Mooney – WR Bears ($6,300)
JuJu Smith-Schuster – WR Chiefs ($6,100)
DeVonta Smith – WR Eagles ($6,000)
Adam Thielen – WR Vikings ($6,000)
Hunter Renfrow – WR Raiders ($5,800)
Elijah Moore – WR NY Jets ($5,500)
Van Jefferson – WR LA Rams ($5,000)
Dalvin Cook – RB Vikings ($8,300)
Alvin Kamara – RB Saints ($7,000 injured)
Josh Jacobs – RB Raiders ($6,500)
Rashad Penny – RB Seahawks ($6,200)
Devin Singletary – RB Bills ($6,100)
Cam Akers – RB LA Rams ($5,800)
Travis Etienne – RB Jaguars ($5,600)
Rhamondre Stevenson – RB Patriots ($5,400)
Kyle Pitts – TE Falcons ($5,600)
Aaron Rodgers – QB Packers ($7,400)
Tom Brady – QB Bucs ($7,400)
Derek Carr – QB Raiders ($7,100)
Weekly record in full-season money leagues: 5-3
Overall season record in full-season money leagues: 11-5
RT Sports Guillotine League:
7th out of 16 with 106.65 points (7-player lineup)
One and Done Guillotine League:
2nd out of 17 with 154 points (new lineup each week, use players only once each) - overall 7th out of 16 with 262 points (88 out of first)
NFC 12-team League:
1-1 overall; fifth in total points
RT Sports Cutline
2 of 2 teams survived (three-player teams, use players only once each)