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Below you will find our Week 3 NFL Power rankings. As more reliable data filters in, we will rely less on the eye test and straight game results and more on the numbers we generate by analyzing many advanced-metric categories that we feel our important to determining the outcome of National Football League games.
We still need to tweak the numbers as the data becomes more reliable and figure out proper weighting based on the league's overall and average performances, the betting markets and bookmakers' odds and how the results are trending, but we did use them this week to help separate teams that were close in the rankings and to determine potential overachievers, underachievers and candidates for positive and negative regression.
Based on raw numbers alone, the Dallas Cowboys would be the top-ranked team this week, but they have far exceeded the expectations of the betting market and bookmakers and are an outlier as far as that is concerned. They've also faced the easiest schedule to date and have the 10th most-difficult schedule the rest of the way. They have exceeded expectations by an average of 27 points in their two games, more than 17 points better than the next two overachievers - Tampa Bay and Indiannapolis.
The Bucs also are a strong candidate for negative regression as they have played the fourth-easiest schedule but face the fourth most-difficult slate the rest of the way. The Colts' schedule, on the other hand, gets easier as they go from the ninth-easiest slate to the third-softest schedule.
Not surprisingly, the New York Giants are the biggest underachievers so far , but while their performance against the spread should improve by default (they are performing almost 20 points below expectation on average to date), New York faces the most-challenging schedule the rest of the way after facing the fourth-toughest set of opponents to date.
The Bears (-11.25) and Bengals (-10.25) have been the next two biggest underachievers, and it may not get much better for either team. Chicago, which is in complete disarray on and off the field at this point, faces the No. 11 most-difficult schedule the rest of the season, while the Bengals' slate ranks as the 14th-toughest. More concerning to Cincinnati, though, is the health of Joe Burrow. If Burrow is out for any length of time, the Bengals, who already have some of the worst raw numbers in the league, probably will drop 12-14 spots in our rankings going forward.
Top candidates for positive regression going forward include the Vikings, Steelers, Raiders, Packers, Jets, Chiefs, Chargers, Texans and Browns. Teams that appear destined for negative regression are the Seahawks, Rams, Eagles, Commanders, Bucs and 49ers.
Believe it or not, things don't appear likely to get better anytime soon for Panthers or Cardinals, but the Texans may have a shot at digging at least partway out of their current situation.
Our numbers are a combination of our personal opinion based on what we've seen watching games, in box scores, on tape and by analyzing standard and advanced metrics, along with the opinions of the betting market and the bookmakers. We look at opening lines, line movement and look-ahead lines in combination with our initial eye-test rankings and a formula that includes many advanced offensive, defensive and special-teams metrics.
Week 3 NFL Power Rankings
49ers 100 2-0
Eagles 99.5 2-0
Cowboys 99 2-0
Chiefs 98.5 1-1
Bills 98 1-1
Dolphins 97.5 2-0
Ravens 97 2-0
Bengals 96 0-2
Saints 95.5 2-0
Jaguars 95.5 1-1
Lions 95 1-1
Seahawks 94.5 1-1
Packers 94 1-1
Commanders 93.5 2-0
Browns 93 1-1
Falcons 92.5 2-0
Chargers 92.5 0-2
Bucs 92 2-0
Vikings 92 0-2
Patriots 91.5 0-2
Titans 91.5 1-1
Giants 91.5 1-1
Broncos 91.5 0-2
Jets 91 1-1
Rams 91 1-1
Raiders 90.5 1-1
Steelers 90 1-1
Colts 89.5 1-1
Texans 88 0-2
Bears 88 0-2
Panthers 87.5 0-2
Cardinals 87 0-2