By Gerry Love - SPM Fantasy Staff
WBTV.com Photo
More craziness appears to be in store for Week 5 of the 2020 National Football League season. More COVID. More injuries. More confusion. Hopefully we can help you wade through it all and find some good DFS value plays.
Before we get started, here is a look at how we did last week:
Week 4 Value Quarterbacks on Draft Kings
1. DeShaun Watson - 20.90
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 21.30
3. Joe Burrow - 15.10
4. Matt Ryan - 12.40
5. Matthew Stafford - 22.34
6. Drew Brees - 15.54
7. Tom Brady - 32.46
8. Derek Carr - 20.44
Week 4 Value Quarterbacks on FanDuel
1. DeShaun Watson - 20.90
2. Aaron Rodgers - 29.58
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 21.30
4. Joe Burrow - 15.10
5. Matthew Stafford - 22.34
6. Matt Ryan - 12.40
7. Jared Goff - 11.70
8. Tom Brady - 32.46
QB Target Score: 28.12
QB Target Cap Hit: 12.9%
Week 4 Value RB1 on Draft Kings
1. Kenyan Drake - 3.50 (ouch - last chance this week)
2. Jonathan Taylor - 8.90
3. James Robinson - 14.70
4. Josh Jacobs - 10.30
5. Nick Chubb - 4.30 (injured)
Week 4 Value RB1 on FanDuel
1. Austin Ekeler - 2.40 (injured)
2. James Robinson - 14.70
3. Kenyan Drake - 3.50
4. Dalvin Cook - 28.60
5. Josh Jacobs - 10.30
6. Nick Chubb - 4.30 (injured)
7. Aaron Jones - 22.10
Week 4 Value RB2/Flex on Draft Kings
1. David Johnson - 11.20
2. Mike Davis - 22.10
3. Devin Singletary - 18.70
4. Darrell Henderson - 4.70
5. Todd Gurley - 19.30
6. Jerick McKinnon - 22.70
Week 4 Value RB2/Flex on FanDuel
1. Kareem Hunt - 19.1-
2. Devin Singletary - 18.70
3. Mike Davis - 22.10
4. David Johnson - 11.20
5. Darrell Henderson - 4.70
6. Todd Gurley - 19.30
7. Jerick McKinnon - 22.70
Value RB Flex Picks DK & FD
1. Nyheim Hines - 6.20
2. Brian Hill - 1.70
3. Chase Edmonds - 15.00
Week 4 Value WR1 on Draft Kings
1. Amari Cooper - 33.40
2. DK Metcalf - 14.60
3. Tyler Lockett - 5.90 (ouch)
4. Robert Woods - 9.80
5. Cooper Kupp - 17.70
Week 4 Value WR1 on FanDuel
1. DK Metcalf - 14.60
2. Amari Cooper - 33.40
3. Tyler Lockett - 5.90
4. Robert Woods - 9.80
5. Keenan Allen - 14.20
6. DeAndre Hopkins - 11.10
7. Mike Evans - 25.20
8. Allen Robinson - 23.10
9. Stefon Diggs - 17.50
Week 4 Value WR2/WR3/Flex on Draft Kings
1. DJ Moore - 18.50
2. Will Fuller - 22.80
3. DeVante Parker - 21.00
4. Terry McLaurin - 21.80
5. Kenny Golladay - 16.20
6. CeeDee Lamb - 25.20
7. Robby Anderson - 17.90
8. Jarvis Landry - 15.28
Week 4 Value WR2/WR3/Flex on FanDuel
1. Tyler Boyd - 16.40
2. Michael Gallup - 4.90
3. DJ Moore - 18.50
4. Will Fuller - 22.80
5. DeVante Parker - 21.00
6. Terry McLaurin - 21.80
7. Kenny Golladay - 16.20
8. CeeDee Lamb - 25.20
9. Robby Anderson - 17.90
10. Jarvis Landry - 15.28
Value WR Flex Picks DK & FD
1. Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 8.50
2. Preston Williams - 4.50
3. Brandon Cooks - 0.00 (boo!)
WR1 Target Score: 27.9
WR1 Target Cap Hit: 12.8%
WR2 Target Score: 23.98
WR2 Target Cap Hit: 11.0%
WR3 Target Score: 21.8%
WR3 Target Cap Hit: 10.0%
Flex Target Score: 22.09
Flex Target Cap Hit: 10.14%
Week 4 Value TE on Draft Kings
1. TJ Hockenson - 10.90
2. Darren Waller - 15.80
3. Mike Gesicki - 2.99
4. Dalton Schultz - 17.20
5. Evan Engram - 9.50
6. Austin Hooper - 14.40
Week 4 Value TE on FanDuel
1. TJ Hockenson - 10.90
2. Tyler Higbee - 5.00
3. Mike Gesicki - 2.90
4. Dalton Schultz - 17.20
5. Evan Engram - 9.50
6. Austin Hooper - 14.40
Week 4 Value TEs Who Can Open Cap Space
1. Logan Thomas - 1.80
2. Mo-Allie Cox - 8.30
3. Robert Tonyan - 33.80
TE Target Score: 22.67
TE Target Cap Hit: 14.8%
Week 5 Value Analysis
Looking ahead to Week 5, again we've tried to come up with the players most likely to be value picks, which means they have the highest probability of exceeding the value of their salary. Picking these players allows you to either free up salary-cap space to select some of the higher-profile, consistent high-ceiling players in other positions or to build an entire lineup of potential over-achievers. That part is up to you.
If you can find a quarterback who, for a given week, can put up Mahomes or Jackson numbers, or close to that, for a couple thousand dollar less, that allows you to pick up an additional elite receiver or running back. Last week we were in the money in several games using the value-approach at QB. Other places you can look to go for super-value picks are at tight end, flex and defense. One of our value TE recommendations who could have helped you spend more at other positions last week, Robert Tonyan, had 33 points.
In each section and for each position we list the target numbers for an overall score that should ensure that you are in the money no matter what type of game you are playing. We have set the team target-score at 218 based on winning scores from last year. That was the average winning score in the larger GPP games last season, so a score like that should make you more than a minimum winner in any type of format. The reality is that if you can get over 180 points in a given week you should come away with something. Remember, a big score from an unlikely player allows you to miss on other players and still have a chance. If you hit on all of them then you win big.
Week 5 Top Value DraftKings Quarterbacks
1. Teddy Bridgewater
2. DeShaun Watson
3. Gardner Minshew
4. Kirk Cousins
5. Drew Brees
6. Matt Ryan
7. Justin Herbert
Week 5 Top Value FanDuel Quarterbacks
1. Teddy Bridgewater
2. DeShaun Watson
3. Gardner Minshew
4. Kirk Cousins
5. Ben Roethlisberger
6. Drew Brees
7. Jared Goff
QB Target Score: 28.12
QB Target Cap Hit: 12.9%
Watson is value priced with a new coach and a very good matchup. He's been a consistent 20-plus point performer this year, but hasn't put up the numbers that we are used to. That's good and bad. It makes any team he's on competitive and keeps him affordable, but we're waiting for that one performance that wins us the big money. This could be the week. Bridgewater has a great matchup is super cheap. The others are mostly matchup-based. Cousins is going against a terrible Seattle secondary and seems to have found chemistry with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
Week 5 RB 1 Draft Kings Top Value
1. C. Edwards-Helaire
2. James Robinson
3. Mike Davis
4. James Conner
5. Chris Carson
Week 5 RB 1 FanDuel Top Value
1. James Robinson
2. Mike Davis
3. James Conner
4. C. Edwards-Helaire
5. Chris Carson
Week 5 RB2 Draft Kings Top Value
1. Todd Gurley
2. David Johnson
3. Melvin Gordon
4. Devin Singletary
5. Todd Gurley
6. Kenyan Drake
Week 5 RB 2 FanDuel Top Value
1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Kareem Hunt
3. David Johnson
4. Melvin Gordon
5. Devin Singletary
6. Todd Gurley
7. Kenyan Drake
RB1 Target Score: 30.52
RB1 Target Cap Hit: 14.0%
RB2 Target Score: 25.51
RB2 Target Cap Hit: 11.7%
Flex Target Score: 22.09
Flex Target Cap Hit: 10.14%
Week 5 RB Super Value Flex Picks
1. Antonio Gibson
2. Le'Veon Bell
Looking at the RB1s, the Jacksonville coaches love Robinson, and he's becoming a true bell cow there. Every expert has CEH in the top 5 this week for the Chiefs, and he's not too pricey. Carson gets all the important carries in an explosive offense, and so does Conner even with Snell looking over his shoulder.
Disclaimer: This is Kenyan Drake's last chance. It's amazing that this coach and team played well at the end of last season leaning on him after he came over from Miami. And he produced. Now they just seem to forget about him every week or get behind being cute and have to put the ball in the air. It's bizarre with these "genius" coaches. Taylor is a workhorse for the Colts and will get the ball on the goal line, but his average per carry hasn't been great. Gurley gets the ball inside the 10 for the Falcons. The Texans should actually use the guy who they got in a trade for the best receiver in football now with a new coach, and Gordon has been very consistent and a pleasant surprise this year. Singletary is solid every week, and if he gets in the end zone he can be big for your team.
Week 5 WR 1 Draft Kings Top Value
1. Adam Thielen
2. Tyler Lockett
3. DK Metcalf
4. Stefon Diggs
5. Robert Woods
6. Cooper Kupp
7. DJ Moore
8. Keenan Allen
Week 5 WR 1 FanDuel Top Value
1. DK Metcalf
2. Adam Thielen
3. Tyler Lockett
4. Stefon Diggs
5. Amari Cooper
6. Robert Woods
7. Cooper Kupp
8. Calvin Ridley
Week 5 WR 2/3 Draft Kings Top Value
1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Robby Anderson
3. Michael Gallup
4. Justin Jefferson
5. Terry McLaurin
Week 5 WR 2/3 FanDuel Top Value
1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Robby Anderson
3. Michael Gallup
4. Justin Jefferson
5. Terry McLaurin
WR1 Target Score: 27.9
WR1 Target Cap Hit: 12.8%
WR2 Target Score: 23.98
WR2 Target Cap Hit: 11.0%
WR3 Target Score: 21.8%
WR3 Target Cap Hit: 10.0%
Flex Target Score: 22.09
Flex Target Cap Hit: 10.14%
Week 5 WR Super Value Flex WR Picks
1. Darius Slayton
2. John Brown
3. TY Hilton
4. Golden Tate
5. Tim Patrick
Let's start with the value flex plays. Slayton has a tremendous matchup against the Cowboys and is priced below 10 percent. He's been Daniel Jones' top target. This is the type of pick that can take you over the top, but if you think Dallas focuses on him then take a look at Golden Tate. Tim Patrick is emerging weekly in Denver as a primary target with Courtland Sutton out. And John Brown has a great price for Buffalo with potential to go for 15-plus points any week.
Another great matchup for the Seattle WRs this week and their opponents, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. Terry McLaruin is a WR1 priced as a WR2 and has to get the bulk of the targets for WFT on a weekly basis. He's tough and is a league leader in YAC. CeeDee Lamb has emerged as the WR2 in Dallas, but as he gets more focus that also opens up possibilities for Michael Gallup in another great passing matchup for Dak and the 'Boys. Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore are 1A and 1B in Carolina, and both are worth consideration when the matchup is good. Keenan Allen is very much under-valued in Draft Kings, and Calvin Ridely should blow up after a unusual bad week and is priced nicely in FanDuel. Woods and Kupp are pretty safe plays, but not game-breakers, every week.
Week 5 TE Draft Kings Top Value
1. Hunter Henry
2. Evan Engram
3. Eric Ebron
4. Mo-Allie Cox
5. Jared Cook
Week 5 TE FanDuel Top Value
1. Hunter Henry
2. Tyler Higbee
3. Evan Engram
4. Eric Ebron
5. Mo-Allie Cox
6. Jared Cook
7. Zach Ertz
TE Target Score: 22.67
TE Target Cap Hit: 14.8%
Week 5 TE Super Value Pick
1. Dawson Knox
The names don't change much at this position week to week, because targets and consistency are key. For those who would like to go cheap and hope to get 10-15 points and be able to spend more on another position, take a look at Dawson Know this week for the Bills against Tennessee. Tyler Higbee is priced low enough and has a matchup against a Washington team that hasn't been able to cover TEs for years. He's worth looking at as a core player in all your lineups. Engram's matchup against Dallas bodes well for him finally putting up one of his multiple-TD efforts. Ebron was starting to get some chemistry with Big Ben before the COVID break and should be able to take advantage of the Eagles. Mo-Allie Cox is a red-zone threat every week, and Jared Cook has become a key player as Drew Brees looks to manage games more than throwing down the field these days.
How to Read the Raw Data
When looking through the data at the end of this article, you’ll see that players from any rescheduled and postponed games are highlighted in red along with players who are on injured reserve, ruled out or very much questionable with injuries or for other reasons. We are likely to stay away from their players, but for any who might play their data is included so you can wait until game time to make your own decisions on them. In a full-season format, however, if they were our best options, we would put them in our lineups if they were active.
Players within the yellow ranged essentially are valued equally in both leagues. Players in orange should be considered for both FanDuel Draft Kings and likely on other platforms. Players highlighted in green are good values only in Draft Kings, while those highlighted in green should be considered as value plays only for FanDuel.
Also remember that we analyze a player’s value based on what percentage of the cap their salary takes up in both Draft Kings and FanDuel. We compare those two platforms to see if one platform’s algorithm has a player priced much higher than the others, which could be an indication of hidden value or a player being overvalued. So, for example, a player with a $5,000 salary in DK would have a cap hit of .100 (10.0 percent), while it would take a $6,000 salary to have a .100 hit on FD. This is because the cap is $50,000 in Draft Kings and $6,0000 in FanDuel in a classic format.
All of our percentages, numbers and targets are based on classic full-roster formats in GPP games. Any information we provide should be beneficial in double-up or similar cash games that have 50 more entries, as the numbers you need to cash out in those games should be lower than in GPP formats. And while our numbers are based on GPP multi-entry contests, and if you want to throw of few bucks down in hopes of winning a million we have no problem with that – it’s fun and we do it, too – in order to maximize your chances of winning we recommend entering multiple single-game contests.
Another reason that we use cap percentages as a reference is because even though the cap and number of players may change in a different type of game, it’s likely that the percentages will be very similar across games within the same platform. And as you can see from our data, as the season goes on more and more players are valued equally by DK and FD, which makes knowing who the outliers are that much more important and potentially beneficial.
While we have our reasons and methods of recommending the best-value plays, we hope that as you get comfortable with the data that you can use it and combine it with your knowledge or data to come to your own conclusions about players we might have overlooked.
