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Let's take a look back at the weekend that was in wagering.
It was a big weekend for our college football bets but a bit of a struggle in the NFL, although we saved face with some fun bets that we never take credit for winning because we would not recommend them as high-percentage plays. Sometimes when you have free bets in an account or are on a hot streak it can be fun to try to hit a home run with a parlay of three, for or more legs.
We happened to hit on a couple of those over the weekend. Again, we don't take credit for these as wins, but they do help the old bankroll, and they can be a lot of fun to play as long as you don't go overboard and become obsessed with them.
One theme that we keep coming back to with our football bets is that good coaching and strong quarterback play usually is a winning combination.
Duh. Thanks Captain Obvious.
But in all seriousness, as simple as it sounds, successful coaches who have proven themselves over many years are almost always worth strong consideration as underdogs, and we always recommend thinking twice before betting against elite coaches or QBs. And when you stumble upon what we like to call a cerebral mismatch on the sidelines paired with a QB mismatch on the field, well that tends to be a winning combination. In simpler terms, we never lose sleep betting on names like Tomlin, Belichick, Reid, Brady, Rodgers, Allen or Herbert.
You're never going to win them all - and you can't control everything that goes on during the course of a game - so you want to maximize your odds of winning and the odds of things not going sideways because of questionable in-game decision making by a coach or quarterback.
We've seen many newer coaches - as well as some others who have been around awhile but aren't considered at the top of their profession - really struggle with game management, play calling and in-game decision-making during the opening weeks of the 2022 college and pro football seasons. These situations seem to arise more frequently every year and often leave us shaking our heads and ripping up our tickets in frustration.
While we can't predict when coaching blunders are going to happen during the course of a game - and sometimes they actually can be amusing if they don't involve us losing money - there is no doubt that some coaches struggle more than others with in-game decision-making. When a coach develops a reputation for mishandling timeouts, making bad replay challenges, going for first downs or not going for first downs at inopportune times and making other similar mistakes and questionable decisions that may not seem like a big deal when they happen but add up over time and can be the difference between a win or a loss for his team and our bets, that reputation 100 percent should be factored into any handicapping system that we use.
Remember, the goal is to maximize our chances of winning. If our numbers and other information we use to handicap show that a game is evenly matched but one team has a coach who struggles with late-game decision-making, an inconsistent quarterback or an average kicker with limited range or who tends to miss important kicks, that may not be the best team to bet on in a game that figures to be closely contested.
The Denver Broncos spent hundreds of millions of dollars to bring in a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback this year, but even a successful veteran QB like Russell Wilson couldn't overcome the ineptness of first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett in an opening-week upset loss against Seattle.
This past weekend, Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal kept trotting his field-goal kicker out when it was pretty clear that field goals weren't going to help his team beat a Texas A&M team with a stout defense. Miami ended up losing, 17-9. The kicker also missed a couple of kids early in the game. The point spread was 6.5, so the Hurricanes didn't cover the number for us, but we did use an alternate spread of +10.5 in a four-leg parlay that covered that loss and actually made us a little extra money.
So, as we go forward this season with our weekly college football and NFL bets, once all the final numbers are crunched, let's make a pledge to always take one final look at the two biggest names on each team - the coach and the QB - to make sure we are comfortable risking our money on one side or the other.
Now, here is a look back at our weekend wagers:
College Football Bets
Syracuse +1.5 vs. Purdue (in-game bet at +4.5 - WIN at -114)
Closing Line: Syracuse -1.5
Final Score: Syracuse, 32-29
This line flipped to Syracuse -1.5 by the time we were able to bet it so we Tweeted that we would wait for a good early in-game opportunity and ended up getting the Orange at +4.5. A crazy game, but Syracuse pulled it out in the end.
Oklahoma -10.5 at Nebraska - WIN & beat closing line (-115)
Closing Line: -11.5
Lazy handicappers all week talked about Nebraska playing well because of their new coach. The reality is that you can show up and play hard but at the end of the day you have to be good enough. Anyone who has watched Nebraska in person this year should have known that they weren't good enough. This one was a rout from the start.
Texas A&M -6.5 vs. Miami - LOSS & pushed closing line (-114)
Closing Line: -6.5
Final Score: Texas A&M, 17-9
We wanted this one at -7, but broke down and took it at -6.5 when the juice started flowing the other day. It ended up being a loser, but we did play Miami +10.5 as part of a four-leg alt parlay that hit and recaptured all of our money and then some. We don't advise those types of bets as they are small-money bets more for fun and not a good investment. Thus, we won't claim it as a win here. Miami easily should have covered this number as we were the victim of missed field goals and awful coaching.
USC -10.5 & under 73.5 - WIN/WIN & beat both closing numbers (-113/-112)
Closing Line: USC -11.5
Closing Total: 70.5
Final Score: USC, 45-17
This contest opened at -12 and 72. Immediately it was bet to -13, showing sharp interest in the Trojans at -12, and 69, which indicates a lean toward the under. We were prepared to take it at -11 or -11.5, but it dropped to -10.5 and we pounded. The under dropped steadily after we bet it. USC is an offensive juggernaut. There are defensive holes that may hurt then against other elite teams, but they are a playoff contender that has been way undervalued this season. That will change soon.
Maryland -2.5 vs. SMU - WIN & pushed closing line (-122)
Closing Line: -2.5
Final Score: Maryland, 34-27
This one stayed at -2.5 all week but looked like it was moving to -3. It never did, but we were happy to take it under the key number of -3. Maryland is a poor-man's USC, with an explosive offense full of speed and high-end recruits, but a porous defense. We thought the Terps would role in this one, but they ended up making some key defensive stops in a comeback win. A win is a win no matter how you get there. Good teams win. Great teams cover.
Several other games that we were tracking all week or Tweeted ended up being winners. We always Tweet what our final bets are and talk about line movements and possible in-game bets on Twitter, so make sure to follow us there @g_loveswinning. If you follow us on Twitter you can follow line movement and decide on your own when to pull the trigger on games we are tracking or leaning toward. We do not have mobile betting yet in Maryland, so sometimes we can't get the number we want at the right time and end up not placing those bets.
We used some of those games to put together a four-team parlay that ended up winning at better than +400 odds. That parlay included:
Maryland - SMU alt total under 75.5
Miami alt spread +10.5 at Texas A&M
Penn State - Auburn alt total over 45.5
Kansas - Houston alt total over 54.5
You also can track our results at Sportspicklogic on the Action Network.
Week 3 CFB Record: 5-1
Winning Percentage: 83.3%
Beat Closing Line: 3-0-2
Profit: +3.32 units
CFB Season Record: 13-8-1
Winning Percentage: 59.1%
Beat Closing Line: 12-4-5
Profit: +4.5 units
NFL Bets
Commanders money line at Lions (-108) - LOSS
Final Score: Lions, 36-27
Late money came in on the Commanders, indicating sharp interest, the Lions had a patchwork offensive line, and Washington's offense looked like it would give a Detroit defense that surrendered 38 points to the Eagles fits. It didn't. Detroit rolled to a 22-0 lead and had 11 first downs before Washington was able to get one first down or cross midfield. The Commanders made the game look close, but it was never in doubt. Washington never starts a season 2-0 and has lost five straight games at Ford Field against mostly bad Lions teams since 2008. Maybe we should have taken a deeper dive into this one.
Bucs -2.5 at Saints (-130) - WIN & push closing line
Closing Line: -2.5 although it did jump to -3 during the week
Final Score: Bucs, 20-10
This one was a struggle. The line appeared to be heading to -3 all week but never stuck there. Still, we liked Tampa Bay and Tom Brady under the key number of 3 and paid up a bit to make sure we got it there. The Buc's D came up big, and the offense finally got into the end zone as Brady broke his mini-Superdome curse.
Steelers +3 vs. Patriots (-115) - PUSH & push closing line
Final Score: Steelers, 17-14
We waited for this one to get to +3 earlier in the week and jumped on it. Although the Steelers were missing TJ Watt, they were getting a field goal at home with a coach who is over 60 percent for his career as an underdog. They also were facing a New England team that couldn't get anything going offensively Week 1 at Miami and is short on explosive offensive weapons. Pittsburgh pretty much shut New England down, but we didn't bank on the Steelers offense also not showing up.
Rams -3 & Bengals -0.5 parlay (-150) - LOSS
Rams win by 6, Bengals lose
The Bengals also were one of our two remaining Survivor picks along with the Rams, so now we only have one of our original three teams still alive. Cincinnati's Super Bowl hangover continues as the team's supposedly sured-up offensive line continues to perform like last year's porous unit and QB Joe Burrow refused to get rid of the ball. The fact that the personnel has been upgraded, but the performance isn't any better - in fact the offense is far worse at the moment - is a strong indication that there may be coaching or schematic issues. That is something we have to consider when thinking about betting the Bengals in the future. The Rams also are not hitting on all cylinders offensively at this point and almost allowed the Falcons to come back and steal a victory in Los Angeles.
We did have a Yankees/Rams money line parlay Sunday that helped us basically break even, but that's not a pick we would have recommended or handed out. We were looking at the Vikings at +3 or the Bills below -10 Monday night, but neither of those games got there so we didn't have a recommended pick.
NFL Week 2 Betting Summary
Week 2 NFL Record: 1-2-1
Winning Percentage: 33.3%
Beat Closing Line: 0-0-2
Profit: -1.23 units
NFL Season Record: 6-3-1
Winning Percentage: 60%
Beat Closing Line: 3-1-2
Profit: +2.76 units
Week 2 Pick 6 Contest Record: 5-1
Week 2 Winning Percentage: 83.3%
Season Pick 6 Record: 10-2
Season Winning Percentage: 88.3%
Week 2 Pick 5 Contest Record: 2-3
Week 2 Winning Percentage: 40%
Season Pick 5 Record: 6-4
Season Winning Percentage: 60%