Stat Logic Sports Fantasy Football Draft Guide: 20 Final Observations from NFL Preseason

By Scott L - SL Sports Staff

Over the past few weeks, we have watched every play executed by first-string offenses and No. 1 quarterbacks for teams that utilized their top units during preseason games. We recommend that all NFL fantasy football managers do the same; the $14 investment for a month of NFL+, which allows you to watch condensed plays of every game, is well worth it.

But if you don't have the time or want to splurge for the access, we are here for you.

Below is a final list of 20 fantasy football-relevant observations heading into Week 1 of the National Football League season. Use this information as a supplement to the other previously posted sections of our Fantasy Football Draft Guide: The Rookies, the DO NOT DRAFT List, the Target List and the Draft Day Plan.

Some of the information and some of our opinions in those sections may have been altered slightly by what we saw watching games and news that has been released in the last 48 hours.

StatLogic Sports 20 Final NFL Preseason Observations:

NFL Observation #1

Woody Marks is the best healthy back the Texans have right now - the only one with any burst. And now that Joe Mixon is confirmed to be out at least the first four weeks of the season, his stock definitely has risen. Marks may not be worth a draft pick, but he might be a popular early waiver pickup.

NFL Observation #2

D'Andre Swift is going to get plenty of volume in Chicago, on the ground and through the air. He is a steal in drafts at his current ADP and has pushed well in front of Isiah Pacheco, Tony Pollard, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Tyrone Tracy on our draft board.

NFL Observation #3

Caleb Williams seems to favor Rome Odunze over DJ Moore. They have a very strong connection, and Williams definitely looks to him first. Olamide Zaccheus also may have a breakout year in Ben Johnson's system - as long as Williams starts getting the ball out quicker and doesn't get blasted over and over in the pocket.

NFL Observation #4

It's really hard to trust any Kansas City wide receivers as WR1 or WR2 if Patrick Mahomes spreads the ball around the way he always has and the way he did in preseason games. Of course, Rashee Rice is going to be suspended at some point, but there are so many mouths to feed and no one uses his entire contingent like Mahomes does.

NFL Observation #5

Isiah Pacheco is the clear RB1 in Kansas City, but how many touches are Kareem Hunt and maybe even Brashard Smith going to steal from him? Is Hunt getting goal-line carries or playing in some passing downs? Smith got work with the first team last weekend. We still like Pacheco as a RB3 if we can get him in Round 7 or 8, but it will be a struggle if he's RB2.

NFL Observation #6

Is any Green Bay receiver worth a fantasy draft pick? For us, the answer is no. If Josh Jacobs stays healthy, his volume will be unreal. Tucker Kraft may be passing option No. 1 for Jordan Love. Maybe Romeo Doubs, Jalen Reed or Matthew Golden warrants taking a flier on one of them right before or after we snag a kicker and defense. Maybe. It depends on the rest of the roster construction.

NFL Observation #7

Lions wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa is VERY good. Could he be Puka Nacua Part Deux? He might be a great early waiver target unless we're happy enough with our roster to use a very late draft pick on him.

NFL Observation #8

Jakobi Meyers asking for a trade puts a hold on his value. His volume in Vegas would be off the charts, and snagging a 100-catch guy as a fourth WR is a fantasy steal. If he stays it will work out fine, but for now maybe we can even get him later in drafts.

NFL Observation #9

Ollie Gordon is a much different runner than the Dolphins have had in the past, but if he ends up starting Week 1 Miami is going to end up with a phenomenal 1-2 change-of-pace running attack when De'Von Achane gets back. And at the very least, he appears to be the short-yardage and goal-line option they've been missing. Grab him as RB 4 or 5 with no regrets. Also in Miami, don't sleep on Malik Washington, who may become a very productive player in an offense run by a QB who can't make a play if he doesn't throw within 2-3 seconds of taking the snap. Tua has no shot when he takes more than a three-step drop, and that limits the effectiveness of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle while making a player with Washington's skill set invaluable.

NFL Observation #10

Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson made John Metchie expendable in Houston and are good enough to allow Jayden Higgins plenty of time to develop without throwing him right into the fire full time. He will contribute more as the season wears on and maybe quite a bit by the second half.

NFL Observation #11

We don't believe that Bryce Young is the answer in Carolina, nor do we see the Panthers improving as much as many in the media are projecting.

NFL Observation #12

We are out on the Steelers RB situation. Kaleb Johnson may develop into a solid NFL starting back, but his pass blocking is reported to be suspect. We've watched the Jaylen Warren movie enough over the past few years. Johnson is going way too early in drafts, and Warren is an "in case of emergency break glass" option only.

NFL Observation #13

The Saints will be bad, but that doesn't mean their players have no fantasy value. As far as Chris Olave is dropping and as much as New Orleans should be behind and have to throw, he may be even more of a steal than Meyers at WR4. We expect him to even be a productive WR3. Rashid Shaheed is a great pickup at WR5 or 6, and Alvin Kamara is going to see ridiculous volume until he drops from exhaustion or injury. Just consider Kendre Miller as a handcuff if you get Kamara as RB2.

NFL Observation #14

In Denver, JK Dobbins being selected after RJ Harvey is asinine, so managers need to capitalize on that. Harvey may emerge and take away more touches as the season progresses - and he might become a really strong RB2 at some point if Dobbins gets hurt as usual - but he's going to start the season as a backup and not worthy of his current average draft position (ADP). Also, Courtland Sutton looks phenomenal and Bo Nix absolutely loves throwing to him in all situations. Short, deep, contested; it doesn't matter. He's the man there, and Evan Engram likely will be option No. 2 through the air.

NFL Observation #15

The Brock Purdy to Ricky Pearsall connection will be on display early and often this year. Two weeks ago we weren't sold on either player, but after watching them it appears as though something special is brewing there.

NFL Observation #17

It looks like which RB will get the bulk of the touches in Cleveland is going to vary based on the opponent, the game plan and who has the hot hand. That renders all of them worthless as fantasy players unless one emerges as a true starter at some point. Waivers only for that crew.

NFL Observation #18

Ashton Jeanty took two huge hits in the preseason, and that understandably seemed to spook the Raiders. Is he going to get yanked every time he gets smoked during the season? He's a strong and fearless runner, but this isn't the Mountain West anymore, so he may have to alter his running style a little bit to survive in the NFL. Zamir White has had success in the NFL as a change-of-pace back and didn't look half bad during preseason, so the Raiders would be smart not to let Jeanty take too much of a beating early in the year.

NFL Observation #19

Cam Ward has a chance to be a very good NFL quarterback, but it's not going to happen overnight like it did with Jaden Daniels. His arm strength is impressive, but he needs to learn when to go with something other than the fastball, and his footwork is less than ideal much of the time.

NFL Observation #20

Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman should catch a ton of balls from Danny Dimes in Indy, and Jonathan Taylor may be targeted out of the backfield a lot more than usual. That could propel JT back into elite RB territory, and we still have Warren as our top TE target once the rest of our starting lineup is filled. Of course, that's contingent on Brock Bowers or Trey McBride not falling and dropping into our lap as a pick we can't pass up earlier than we look to take Warren.